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You mean polls like this that put Clinton 15% ahead? https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2016/08/10/clinton-leads-trump-by-15-among-likely

by koolba 2y ago

You mean polls like this that put Clinton 15% ahead? https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2016/08/10/clinton-leads-trump-by-15-among-likely-voters/88541702/ https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/20... I think there’s a stronger argument that those polls were intended to suppress Trump voters into thinking they were not the majority (when in fact they were).

FireBeyond 2y ago
I think there's also a huge misunderstanding of statistics in the US. More than one person I've spoken to believed that when sites said things like "Hilary has a 70% chance of winning" that that was the same as getting 70% of the vote, i.e. a landslide. I've had literal arguments with people who can't/won't understand the difference between an average and a median even when presented with 5th grade level phrasing examples.
enjo 2y ago
>I think there’s a stronger argument that those polls were intended to suppress Trump voters into thinking they were not the majority (when in fact they were). Show your work. What evidence do you have to support that argument?
Gerardo1 2y ago
Are you saying that Trump won the popular vote in 2016?
- koolba 2y ago
  He won the popular vote in 2016 in States like Wisconsin that for months said he was 10-15% behind in the polls. It’s my interpretation that those polls were wrong but the majority of the media didn’t care. They just wanted to push a narrative that supporting Trump was a fringe minority in those States, rather than the true majority that it was.
  - pitpatagain 2y ago
    This is not an accurate description of the magnitude of polling error in 2016 in WI, which was the state with the most significant polling error that year by a very large margin, see Table 2 "2016 final polling average versus actual results": https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/polling-error-in-2016-2020-look-out-for-wisconsin/ https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/polling-error-in-2... The final difference from polling in WI was 7%, other states had smaller polling errors. The fact is that 2016 was simply an extremely tight race in many states and difficult to forecast even with completely normal polling error bars.
lurk2 2y ago
Clinton won the popular vote by about 3 million votes in 2016.
- mvdtnz 2y ago
  Are American elections decided on the popular vote?
  - intermerda 2y ago
    Nearly all of them, yes.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - lurk2 2y ago
    Not presidential elections, no.
kelnos 2y ago
That poll was in August of 2016. A lot changed between then and election day. Obviously we can't know if Clinton really would have had a 15 point lead on the day that poll was taken, because no official vote was taken. You may think it's implausible that it could have been true, but you're just some rando on the internet, what do you know? (Same with me!) > intended to suppress Trump voters into thinking they were not the majority (when in fact they were Depends on what you mean by "majority". If you're just talking about Wisconsin and that specific poll, sure Trump voters ended up being in the majority, but we can't say with any certainty what that situation was in early August. Polls like that one are the best guesses we have for that particular snapshot in time. If you're talking about an overall majority of those who ended up being actual voters, then that's also not the case, as Trump did not win a majority of votes; Clinton did. Sadly, though, popular vote majority is not how our presidential election system works.

by koolba 2y ago

FireBeyond 2y ago

I think there's also a huge misunderstanding of statistics in the US. More than one person I've spoken to believed that when sites said things like "Hilary has a 70% chance of winning" that that was the same as getting 70% of the vote, i.e. a landslide. I've had literal arguments with people who can't/won't understand the difference between an average and a median even when presented with 5th grade level phrasing examples.

enjo 2y ago

>I think there’s a stronger argument that those polls were intended to suppress Trump voters into thinking they were not the majority (when in fact they were). Show your work. What evidence do you have to support that argument?

Gerardo1 2y ago

Are you saying that Trump won the popular vote in 2016?

koolba 2y ago
He won the popular vote in 2016 in States like Wisconsin that for months said he was 10-15% behind in the polls. It’s my interpretation that those polls were wrong but the majority of the media didn’t care. They just wanted to push a narrative that supporting Trump was a fringe minority in those States, rather than the true majority that it was.
- pitpatagain 2y ago
  This is not an accurate description of the magnitude of polling error in 2016 in WI, which was the state with the most significant polling error that year by a very large margin, see Table 2 "2016 final polling average versus actual results": https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/polling-error-in-2016-2020-look-out-for-wisconsin/ https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/polling-error-in-2... The final difference from polling in WI was 7%, other states had smaller polling errors. The fact is that 2016 was simply an extremely tight race in many states and difficult to forecast even with completely normal polling error bars.

lurk2 2y ago

Clinton won the popular vote by about 3 million votes in 2016.

mvdtnz 2y ago
Are American elections decided on the popular vote?
- intermerda 2y ago
  Nearly all of them, yes.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- lurk2 2y ago
  Not presidential elections, no.

kelnos 2y ago

That poll was in August of 2016. A lot changed between then and election day. Obviously we can't know if Clinton really would have had a 15 point lead on the day that poll was taken, because no official vote was taken. You may think it's implausible that it could have been true, but you're just some rando on the internet, what do you know? (Same with me!) > intended to suppress Trump voters into thinking they were not the majority (when in fact they were Depends on what you mean by "majority". If you're just talking about Wisconsin and that specific poll, sure Trump voters ended up being in the majority, but we can't say with any certainty what that situation was in early August. Polls like that one are the best guesses we have for that particular snapshot in time. If you're talking about an overall majority of those who ended up being actual voters, then that's also not the case, as Trump did not win a majority of votes; Clinton did. Sadly, though, popular vote majority is not how our presidential election system works.