It's about expected value. The assumption is more people buy in at higher payouts causing the pot to split. Usually the EV is negative. The real insight here wa

It's about expected value. The assumption is more people buy in at higher payouts causing the pot to split. Usually the EV is negative. The real insight here was that this state lottery was not so popular as evidenced by long spans of time between payouts. Net EV=cost to buy in - probability of winning * (jackpot size / number of people you split it with) If you have a 1% chance of winning $100 your EV is $1. If you pay $1 to play you breakeven. If the pot is $200 then your EV is $2. You would pay $1 all day for that. But again the risk is more people want to play. If 2 people win then your EV drops back to even.