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The fact first strike didn’t look like it would work has a lot to do with why we’ve avoid nuclear war. I’m not saying nobody would ever target a missile silo,

by Retric 2y ago

The fact first strike didn’t look like it would work has a lot to do with why we’ve avoid nuclear war. I’m not saying nobody would ever target a missile silo, just that they aren’t particularly high on this list of targets.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> they aren’t particularly high on this list of targets The target list is obviously conditional on a nuclear war happening. Unless your position is the U.S. is invulnerable to a first strike, then the silos should stay at the top of the list. (Even in a second strike you hit them and hit them fast. If there was a launch error you get a tremendous defensive ROI in taking them out.)
- Retric 2y ago
  My position is first strikes vs US, Russia, or China are almost completely useless. Even France and the UK has 4 nuclear subs, the US has what 14 ballistic missile submarines?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > My position is first strikes vs US, Russia, or China are almost completely useless That’s incoherent with this thread, which started with someone asking what would happen “if someone decides to nuke the US.” Not if France launched a suicidal first strike on America. The realistic scenarios for America getting nuked are a first strike from a rogue state, first strike from Russia or China, and second strike from Russia or China. First strike from a rogue state is basically nuclear terrorism; it will probably target a population centre or something close and hittable, e.g. Guam for Pyongyang. First strikes from Russia or China would target silos. (Unless theatre-based, e.g. hitting Guam and our Japanese airbases ahead of an invasion of Taiwan.) Second strike would mean silos are probably empty, though not necessarily, these are hundreds of decades-old mechanisms in who knows what condition of readiness, but sure, if the American first strike is comprehensive and flawless, and the enemy omnipotent, we’d probably not see too many nukes go at silos. (You would at other nuclear infrastructure.) So in general, no, if we’re in wide-scale nuclear war the planners who thought about this for decades in the Cold War may not have missed that launched tubes that have launched are now empty.
    - Retric 2y ago
      > First strike from a rogue state is basically nuclear terrorism Obviously by definition someone can attack first, however: “First strike capability is a country's ability to defeat another nuclear power by destroying its arsenal to the point where the attacking country can survive the weakened retaliation while the opposing side is left unable to continue war.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_strike_(nuclear_strategy) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_strike_(nuclear_strategy... So yes in theory sure a first strike would take out nuclear silos, but neither side believed they could preform a successful first strike. It’s a theoretical goal, not something that seems to have been possible barring the very early days of the Cold War before ICBM’s existed. Which then brings up the question of what exactly you target if you assume thousands of nukes will hit you regardless of what you aim for.

by Retric 2y ago

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> they aren’t particularly high on this list of targets The target list is obviously conditional on a nuclear war happening. Unless your position is the U.S. is invulnerable to a first strike, then the silos should stay at the top of the list. (Even in a second strike you hit them and hit them fast. If there was a launch error you get a tremendous defensive ROI in taking them out.)

Retric 2y ago
My position is first strikes vs US, Russia, or China are almost completely useless. Even France and the UK has 4 nuclear subs, the US has what 14 ballistic missile submarines?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > My position is first strikes vs US, Russia, or China are almost completely useless That’s incoherent with this thread, which started with someone asking what would happen “if someone decides to nuke the US.” Not if France launched a suicidal first strike on America. The realistic scenarios for America getting nuked are a first strike from a rogue state, first strike from Russia or China, and second strike from Russia or China. First strike from a rogue state is basically nuclear terrorism; it will probably target a population centre or something close and hittable, e.g. Guam for Pyongyang. First strikes from Russia or China would target silos. (Unless theatre-based, e.g. hitting Guam and our Japanese airbases ahead of an invasion of Taiwan.) Second strike would mean silos are probably empty, though not necessarily, these are hundreds of decades-old mechanisms in who knows what condition of readiness, but sure, if the American first strike is comprehensive and flawless, and the enemy omnipotent, we’d probably not see too many nukes go at silos. (You would at other nuclear infrastructure.) So in general, no, if we’re in wide-scale nuclear war the planners who thought about this for decades in the Cold War may not have missed that launched tubes that have launched are now empty.
  - Retric 2y ago
    > First strike from a rogue state is basically nuclear terrorism Obviously by definition someone can attack first, however: “First strike capability is a country's ability to defeat another nuclear power by destroying its arsenal to the point where the attacking country can survive the weakened retaliation while the opposing side is left unable to continue war.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_strike_(nuclear_strategy) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_strike_(nuclear_strategy... So yes in theory sure a first strike would take out nuclear silos, but neither side believed they could preform a successful first strike. It’s a theoretical goal, not something that seems to have been possible barring the very early days of the Cold War before ICBM’s existed. Which then brings up the question of what exactly you target if you assume thousands of nukes will hit you regardless of what you aim for.