4 ms·

Tesla posts delivery numbers the day after quarter end and several weeks before earnings, so that's the one to really watch out for. If they don't post anything

Tesla posts delivery numbers the day after quarter end and several weeks before earnings, so that's the one to really watch out for. If they don't post anything on April 1 or 2, you know something real is up. In general, I think Musk really failed the marshmallow test - keeping on the sidelines and working through the existing system (for autonomy, spaceflight, etc) would have been more painful, but would have delivered greater returns long-term. Instead he decided to take a shortcut by buying a president and torching the regulatory system, and he'll succeed, but will that actually pay off? Self-driving Teslas will be allowed without any questions nation-wide, but will people get into them after what he's done? Will people let Teslabots into their house? I don't think the destroyed trust will make up for the lack of regulations. Even finances aside, being the #1 oligarch doesn't always end well - just ask Jack Ma or Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He would have been safer under the old rule-of-law American system.

Reubend 2y ago
> Instead he decided to take a shortcut by buying a president and torching the regulatory system, and he'll succeed, but will that actually pay off? Self-driving Teslas will be allowed without any questions nation-wide, but will people get into them after what he's done? I don't think he cares too much about self driving regulation compared to other factors. Trump's tariff's against Mexico greatly benefit Tesla by making the supply chains used by other American carmakers more costly. He can easily push for SpaceX contracts from the top down. And he can advocate for favorable policy towards X.ai, Twitter, etc. With regards to self driving, Tesla has always been in the grey area where their marketing clashes with their legal stance (i.e. that the human must remain in control at all times and therefore must keep liability). They've haven't bothered so far with the legal legwork to do real autonomous driving the way that competitors like Waymo did. And it will be make years before they need to do that, since their current tech is far from real autonomous driving.
techpineapple 2y ago
It feels to me that it can’t be lost on anyone or a coincidence that given Musk’s tangential (official) relationship to the government, he’s a really good scapegoat if something goes south with Doge.
throwaway48476 2y ago
No one wants to the the richest man on China. Chinese billionaires kept sinking their valuations to try to keep out of the spotlight.
rsynnott 2y ago
> Even finances aside, being the #1 oligarch doesn't always end well - just ask Jack Ma or Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Pretty much _never_ ends well, I would think; note just how careless Russia’s top oligarchs have historically been around windows, balconies, stairs etc.
maxglute 2y ago
Maybe he'll speedrun getting from US gov the trillions need for his Mars grand vision and forget Tesla + other projects as trickle financing engine. 100s of billions isn't going to cut it. I mean he's not young, maybe like hailmary gamble to accelerate Mars, then he'll be in the history books and sandbagging US is merely going to be footnote. Either way he'll die with more money than he knows what to do with.
tim333 2y ago
It's all a bit reminiscent of Ratner's. For those who don't know Ratner's was the UK's biggest jewelry chain and did very well until their boss joked about their cheaper products being total crap, which was then picked up by the press which caused people to stop buying there which caused the chain to go bust. Likewise here. Musk (maybe jokingly?) does a nazi salute, sales fall 50%, we will see how it goes. Ratner is still around and launched a new jewlery brand which is doing ok.

Reubend 2y ago

> Instead he decided to take a shortcut by buying a president and torching the regulatory system, and he'll succeed, but will that actually pay off? Self-driving Teslas will be allowed without any questions nation-wide, but will people get into them after what he's done? I don't think he cares too much about self driving regulation compared to other factors. Trump's tariff's against Mexico greatly benefit Tesla by making the supply chains used by other American carmakers more costly. He can easily push for SpaceX contracts from the top down. And he can advocate for favorable policy towards X.ai, Twitter, etc. With regards to self driving, Tesla has always been in the grey area where their marketing clashes with their legal stance (i.e. that the human must remain in control at all times and therefore must keep liability). They've haven't bothered so far with the legal legwork to do real autonomous driving the way that competitors like Waymo did. And it will be make years before they need to do that, since their current tech is far from real autonomous driving.

techpineapple 2y ago

It feels to me that it can’t be lost on anyone or a coincidence that given Musk’s tangential (official) relationship to the government, he’s a really good scapegoat if something goes south with Doge.

throwaway48476 2y ago

No one wants to the the richest man on China. Chinese billionaires kept sinking their valuations to try to keep out of the spotlight.

rsynnott 2y ago

> Even finances aside, being the #1 oligarch doesn't always end well - just ask Jack Ma or Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Pretty much _never_ ends well, I would think; note just how careless Russia’s top oligarchs have historically been around windows, balconies, stairs etc.

maxglute 2y ago

Maybe he'll speedrun getting from US gov the trillions need for his Mars grand vision and forget Tesla + other projects as trickle financing engine. 100s of billions isn't going to cut it. I mean he's not young, maybe like hailmary gamble to accelerate Mars, then he'll be in the history books and sandbagging US is merely going to be footnote. Either way he'll die with more money than he knows what to do with.

tim333 2y ago

It's all a bit reminiscent of Ratner's. For those who don't know Ratner's was the UK's biggest jewelry chain and did very well until their boss joked about their cheaper products being total crap, which was then picked up by the press which caused people to stop buying there which caused the chain to go bust. Likewise here. Musk (maybe jokingly?) does a nazi salute, sales fall 50%, we will see how it goes. Ratner is still around and launched a new jewlery brand which is doing ok.