Probably the upsides are specific/micro not macro. On macro scale, this is consumption tax. It will raise revenue for the state and reduce debt or fund state ac

Probably the upsides are specific/micro not macro. On macro scale, this is consumption tax. It will raise revenue for the state and reduce debt or fund state activity (Trump dislikes that) and it will reduce consumption so it's net deflationary but since prices rise... the CPI rises. Micro, specific companies and industries may benefit from book orders which displace imports and maybe some of that creates jobs and puts money in the rust belt. Longterm, trade moves elsewhere. Why wear risk of dealing with the US? For non substitutable product you have to but for everything else, you'd avoid it. Probably the global economic hit is awful, net. The retaliatory effect on exports is for the beneficiaries an externality and also delayed since its new orders. Probably this is far, far worse than Trump thinks. I read Paul Krugmans substack. I'm not an economist and will probably be corrected on all of this.