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For several reasons, France is uniquely positioned to be the leader of Europe. Nuclear arms, a lot of nuclear energy, defense industry, food independence. All

For several reasons, France is uniquely positioned to be the leader of Europe. Nuclear arms, a lot of nuclear energy, defense industry, food independence. All of this thanks to Charles De Gaulle, who insisted that France must be autonomous in most important domains. With hindsight, this was extremely important. Without France's nuclear energy and arms, Europe would be in a very very bad position right now.

euroderf 2y ago
Ain't it the truth.
t_mann 2y ago
The UK also has a nuclear arsenal [0]. A bit smaller than France's, but the reality is both pale in comparison to the US and Russia. Europe has no natural leader, it's an ensemble of what some would now call random countries that only have relevance when considered together. But that doesn't need to be an issue imho. Decentralized systems are generally messier but also more resilient than centralized ones. If this situation leads to an arms race of individual countries, the outcome may well be that the combined total force is the strongest on the planet. The question is whether they're willing to go there. They would have the engineering and industrial footprint, but they would completely need to change their political DNA. Avoiding armament of European nations is literally the EU's original raison d'être. On a more practical level, they would need to ditch the Maastricht rules on fiscal discipline, something that is also deeply enshrined in the EU's institutional mindset, as well as its laws. Or they would need to issue collective debt, but that runs against the political DNA of some member states. Everything is doable, the question is whether the sense of urgency is strong enough. Given how keen European leaders currently are to let everyone who wasn't asking know that they're helpless without the US, it seems that there's still a long way to go. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_we...
- EA-3167 2y ago
  Without in any way indulging in the delusion of a united Europe, in which Germany is willing to subordinate itself to France, one thing is worth saying: The UK does have a nuclear arsenal, but it's essentially leased from the US.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > in the delusion of a united Europe, in which Germany is willing to subordinate itself to France The Haudenosaunee a/k/a Iroquois had a unique confederacy consisting of two dominant and a few lesser powers [1][2]. And the Roman Republic had two consuls, including on campaign. Maybe a nuclear command inspired by both is the answer: any launch requires codes from each of Paris, Berlin and the head of state of the country actually launching. (Practically, the Germans are sort of irrelevant given they not only have no nuclear weapons, they’re also dismantling their civil nuclear expertise. I’m assuming they grow up and reärm. Otherwise, centralising nuclear power in Paris doesn’t depend on Germany agreement.) [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iroquois https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iroquois [2] https://youtu.be/S4gU2Tsv6hY https://youtu.be/S4gU2Tsv6hY
    - EA-3167 2y ago
      The Germans have the money, the largest GDP in the EU and France is a distant second (would be third if you counted the UK though). At the end of the day there is no EU without Germany, and as we've seen with Ukraine, waging a war without funds is like trying to breathe in a vacuum.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Germans have the money, the largest GDP in the EU and France is a distant second For nuclear purposes Germany is irrelevant. For martial purposes, it’s a distant second to France. It obviously should be part of mutual-defence discussions. But it doesn’t need to be and doesn’t bring that much to the table in the short term. (Absent a hypothetical land war.)
        2y ago
- palata 2y ago
  > On a more practical level, they would need to ditch the Maastricht rules on fiscal discipline I think this has been suggested by Ursula von der Leyen. Europe has to get united and get to the point where it can defend itself. The US has definitely proven that they are unreliable, so it has to be done. But it will take some time, and in the meantime Europe has to rely on the US. If not as allies, then as partners. The US have been threatening to become enemies, but that's not (yet) the case, which is why the EU is still considering relying on a partner.
  - t_mann 2y ago
    Almost nothing of relevance can be done overnight, but the first step is always the most important one. I haven't heard of that comment by vdL yet, maybe they're ready to take it, but the proof is in the pudding.
    - mrighele 2y ago
      "Von der Leyen outlined the five-point plan at a critical time for the future of Europe's security. One of them is a proposal to suspend strict budget rules to allow member states to ramp up "their defence expenditures without triggering the excessive deficit procedure," Von der Leyen said.[1]" [1] https://www.dw.com/en/eus-von-der-leyen-proposes-800-billion-defense-plan/a-71819582 https://www.dw.com/en/eus-von-der-leyen-proposes-800-billion...
      - t_mann 2y ago
        Thanks. That does sound like it could be a pragmatic solution, if they go through with it.
locallost 2y ago
France depends on Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Niger for uranium. At least it depended on Niger until there was a military coup that stopped further exports. If there is a large scale conflict, I would not bet on those reactors accomplishing much. Not to mention that they did not accomplish much three years ago during the biggest energy crisis in decades, and that they need humongous investments just to keep running, so that they can get retired for further enormous costs. I'm not sure you can lead where your allegedly biggest asset is barely holding its head above water and is long term s huge liability.
- TheAlchemist 2y ago
  That's interesting. In case of large scale conflict, for how long could French reactors run ? I assumed for quite long, am I completely wrong here ?
  - adev_ 2y ago
    > ? I assumed for quite long, am I completely wrong here ? France has more of 10y of Uranium stockpile for it's own consumption.
  - m4rtink 2y ago
    While not being very actively mined, Czech Republic has large Uranium reserves & provided a lot of the initial soviet uranium after the soviet sponsored comunist coup: https://english.radio.cz/czech-radioactive-dillema-8109837 https://english.radio.cz/czech-radioactive-dillema-8109837 https://www.suro.cz/files/2021-03/Uranium%20mining%20history%20in%20Czech%20Republic.pdf https://www.suro.cz/files/2021-03/Uranium%20mining%20history... I guess lots of this could be restarted if there is demand ?
- akvadrako 2y ago
  Uranium is common, it's just not profitable to mine at current prices. But fuel costs are just a few percentage points of the total. If there were a shortage, it's no problem to pay even 5x more. Then you'll see suppliers pop up everywhere.
mongol 2y ago
This fantastic speech points in that direction. This is the type of rhetoric that can rally Europeans behind France https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_fighting_against_a_dictator_backed_by_a/ https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_figh...
- mostlysimilar 2y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j51HZncBvEI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j51HZncBvEI YouTube link for easier sharing.
insane_dreamer 2y ago
Also, crucially, France has no US military bases
Gud 2y ago
This was always obvious and my native Sweden was doing the same thing. Unfortunately, our competent leadership was gradually replaced with charlatans and imposters and we are now in a terrible situation.

euroderf 2y ago

Ain't it the truth.

t_mann 2y ago

The UK also has a nuclear arsenal [0]. A bit smaller than France's, but the reality is both pale in comparison to the US and Russia. Europe has no natural leader, it's an ensemble of what some would now call random countries that only have relevance when considered together. But that doesn't need to be an issue imho. Decentralized systems are generally messier but also more resilient than centralized ones. If this situation leads to an arms race of individual countries, the outcome may well be that the combined total force is the strongest on the planet. The question is whether they're willing to go there. They would have the engineering and industrial footprint, but they would completely need to change their political DNA. Avoiding armament of European nations is literally the EU's original raison d'être. On a more practical level, they would need to ditch the Maastricht rules on fiscal discipline, something that is also deeply enshrined in the EU's institutional mindset, as well as its laws. Or they would need to issue collective debt, but that runs against the political DNA of some member states. Everything is doable, the question is whether the sense of urgency is strong enough. Given how keen European leaders currently are to let everyone who wasn't asking know that they're helpless without the US, it seems that there's still a long way to go. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_we...

EA-3167 2y ago
Without in any way indulging in the delusion of a united Europe, in which Germany is willing to subordinate itself to France, one thing is worth saying: The UK does have a nuclear arsenal, but it's essentially leased from the US.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > in the delusion of a united Europe, in which Germany is willing to subordinate itself to France The Haudenosaunee a/k/a Iroquois had a unique confederacy consisting of two dominant and a few lesser powers [1][2]. And the Roman Republic had two consuls, including on campaign. Maybe a nuclear command inspired by both is the answer: any launch requires codes from each of Paris, Berlin and the head of state of the country actually launching. (Practically, the Germans are sort of irrelevant given they not only have no nuclear weapons, they’re also dismantling their civil nuclear expertise. I’m assuming they grow up and reärm. Otherwise, centralising nuclear power in Paris doesn’t depend on Germany agreement.) [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iroquois https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iroquois [2] https://youtu.be/S4gU2Tsv6hY https://youtu.be/S4gU2Tsv6hY
  - EA-3167 2y ago
    The Germans have the money, the largest GDP in the EU and France is a distant second (would be third if you counted the UK though). At the end of the day there is no EU without Germany, and as we've seen with Ukraine, waging a war without funds is like trying to breathe in a vacuum.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Germans have the money, the largest GDP in the EU and France is a distant second For nuclear purposes Germany is irrelevant. For martial purposes, it’s a distant second to France. It obviously should be part of mutual-defence discussions. But it doesn’t need to be and doesn’t bring that much to the table in the short term. (Absent a hypothetical land war.)
      - 2y ago
palata 2y ago
> On a more practical level, they would need to ditch the Maastricht rules on fiscal discipline I think this has been suggested by Ursula von der Leyen. Europe has to get united and get to the point where it can defend itself. The US has definitely proven that they are unreliable, so it has to be done. But it will take some time, and in the meantime Europe has to rely on the US. If not as allies, then as partners. The US have been threatening to become enemies, but that's not (yet) the case, which is why the EU is still considering relying on a partner.
- t_mann 2y ago
  Almost nothing of relevance can be done overnight, but the first step is always the most important one. I haven't heard of that comment by vdL yet, maybe they're ready to take it, but the proof is in the pudding.
  - mrighele 2y ago
    "Von der Leyen outlined the five-point plan at a critical time for the future of Europe's security. One of them is a proposal to suspend strict budget rules to allow member states to ramp up "their defence expenditures without triggering the excessive deficit procedure," Von der Leyen said.[1]" [1] https://www.dw.com/en/eus-von-der-leyen-proposes-800-billion-defense-plan/a-71819582 https://www.dw.com/en/eus-von-der-leyen-proposes-800-billion...
    - t_mann 2y ago
      Thanks. That does sound like it could be a pragmatic solution, if they go through with it.

locallost 2y ago

France depends on Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Niger for uranium. At least it depended on Niger until there was a military coup that stopped further exports. If there is a large scale conflict, I would not bet on those reactors accomplishing much. Not to mention that they did not accomplish much three years ago during the biggest energy crisis in decades, and that they need humongous investments just to keep running, so that they can get retired for further enormous costs. I'm not sure you can lead where your allegedly biggest asset is barely holding its head above water and is long term s huge liability.

TheAlchemist 2y ago
That's interesting. In case of large scale conflict, for how long could French reactors run ? I assumed for quite long, am I completely wrong here ?
- adev_ 2y ago
  > ? I assumed for quite long, am I completely wrong here ? France has more of 10y of Uranium stockpile for it's own consumption.
- m4rtink 2y ago
  While not being very actively mined, Czech Republic has large Uranium reserves & provided a lot of the initial soviet uranium after the soviet sponsored comunist coup: https://english.radio.cz/czech-radioactive-dillema-8109837 https://english.radio.cz/czech-radioactive-dillema-8109837 https://www.suro.cz/files/2021-03/Uranium%20mining%20history%20in%20Czech%20Republic.pdf https://www.suro.cz/files/2021-03/Uranium%20mining%20history... I guess lots of this could be restarted if there is demand ?
akvadrako 2y ago
Uranium is common, it's just not profitable to mine at current prices. But fuel costs are just a few percentage points of the total. If there were a shortage, it's no problem to pay even 5x more. Then you'll see suppliers pop up everywhere.

mongol 2y ago

This fantastic speech points in that direction. This is the type of rhetoric that can rally Europeans behind France https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_fighting_against_a_dictator_backed_by_a/ https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1j46edt/we_are_figh...

mostlysimilar 2y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j51HZncBvEI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j51HZncBvEI YouTube link for easier sharing.

insane_dreamer 2y ago

Also, crucially, France has no US military bases

Gud 2y ago

This was always obvious and my native Sweden was doing the same thing. Unfortunately, our competent leadership was gradually replaced with charlatans and imposters and we are now in a terrible situation.