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The counter to this is: 1) Rapid identification and localization of breaks, so military/police forces can be dispatched to the area. 2) Continuous deployment

by ethbr1 2y ago

The counter to this is: 1) Rapid identification and localization of breaks, so military/police forces can be dispatched to the area. 2) Continuous deployment of MQ-9B SeaGuardian or HALE UAV platforms around shallow cable runs to locate and id dark ships, who would also be running nav beacons before and after. 3) Low-earth-orbit persistent sensing networks (e.g. what's now called PWSA [0]) with ship id'ing sensor packages. As parent notes though, the lynchpin of this is inverting the cost:benefit ratio to be unfavorable, by raising the likelihood that ships will be detained and ultimately seized. Even oligarchs don't like to light money on fire. [0] https://spacenews.com/space-force-preparing-for-the-age-of-proliferated-low-earth-orbit-satellite-networks/ https://spacenews.com/space-force-preparing-for-the-age-of-p...

Braxton1980 2y ago
>Even oligarchs don't like to light money on fire. Russia's war with Ukraine is not profitable for Russian oligarchs or Russia itself yet it continues
- throwaway290 2y ago
  Oligarchs are not suffering much tho. For them it's no new yacht this year type of thing. They have golden visas and property in nice countries. Plan b is not going anywhere, countries love corrupt money and because US is giving up its influence lately they have even less external motivation to overthrow egomaniac in power. But if world was strict on sanctions workarounds and if US maintained a hard line I think it could change.
  - Braxton1980 2y ago
    They would make more money if there wasn't a war.
deepsun 2y ago
1) is just hard. A lot of crime would not happen if we could just rapidly identify and localize it.
- ethbr1 2y ago
  Absolutely. But it's a bit different when you have a continuously-monitored known-path cable. Technical solutions become feasible.
- Gud 2y ago
  I don’t know much about fiber to be honest but wouldn’t the exact location be possible to determine with time of flight measurements?
rendall 2y ago
Soon, and it's starting to happen as we read this, Europe will beef up and smash Russia for this kind of nonsense.
- emptysongglass 2y ago
  I wish, but Soon has been the mantra since the invasion started. We're literally buying more oil and gas from Russia than arming and funding Ukraine[1]. We're buying more this year than last year. Europe's response has been and continues to be nothing less than shambolic and shameful. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more-russian-oil-gas-than-financial-aid-ukraine-report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more...
  - gunian 2y ago
    [flagged]
  - rendall 2y ago
    Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian energy. Russian pipeline gas imports dropped from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023 (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-the-eu-s-gas-come-from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-t...). Yes, some Russian oil still makes its way to Europe, often through indirect routes. In 2023, the EU imported 130 million barrels of refined products from refineries processing Russian crude, adding about €1.1 billion in tax revenue to Russia (https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/eu-purchases-of-laundered-russian-oil-worth-an-estimated-11-billion-to-the-kremlin-in-2023 https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/eu-pur...). The EU is working to close these loopholes. Meanwhile, EU financial aid to Ukraine in 2024 stands at €18.7 billion, compared to €21.9 billion paid for Russian fossil fuels (https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russ...). But military support tells a different story: the EU and member states have committed €48.7 billion in military aid, including tanks, air-defense systems, and fighter jets (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/military-support-ukraine https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/military-support...). The claim that Europe is buying more from Russia than it’s giving Ukraine ignores the scale of military aid and the long-term shift away from Russian energy. It’s not perfect, but it’s far from "shambolic."

by ethbr1 2y ago

Braxton1980 2y ago

>Even oligarchs don't like to light money on fire. Russia's war with Ukraine is not profitable for Russian oligarchs or Russia itself yet it continues

throwaway290 2y ago
Oligarchs are not suffering much tho. For them it's no new yacht this year type of thing. They have golden visas and property in nice countries. Plan b is not going anywhere, countries love corrupt money and because US is giving up its influence lately they have even less external motivation to overthrow egomaniac in power. But if world was strict on sanctions workarounds and if US maintained a hard line I think it could change.
- Braxton1980 2y ago
  They would make more money if there wasn't a war.

deepsun 2y ago

1) is just hard. A lot of crime would not happen if we could just rapidly identify and localize it.

ethbr1 2y ago
Absolutely. But it's a bit different when you have a continuously-monitored known-path cable. Technical solutions become feasible.
Gud 2y ago
I don’t know much about fiber to be honest but wouldn’t the exact location be possible to determine with time of flight measurements?

rendall 2y ago

Soon, and it's starting to happen as we read this, Europe will beef up and smash Russia for this kind of nonsense.

emptysongglass 2y ago
I wish, but Soon has been the mantra since the invasion started. We're literally buying more oil and gas from Russia than arming and funding Ukraine[1]. We're buying more this year than last year. Europe's response has been and continues to be nothing less than shambolic and shameful. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more-russian-oil-gas-than-financial-aid-ukraine-report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more...
- gunian 2y ago
  [flagged]
- rendall 2y ago
  Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian energy. Russian pipeline gas imports dropped from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023 (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-the-eu-s-gas-come-from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-t...). Yes, some Russian oil still makes its way to Europe, often through indirect routes. In 2023, the EU imported 130 million barrels of refined products from refineries processing Russian crude, adding about €1.1 billion in tax revenue to Russia (https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/eu-purchases-of-laundered-russian-oil-worth-an-estimated-11-billion-to-the-kremlin-in-2023 https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/eu-pur...). The EU is working to close these loopholes. Meanwhile, EU financial aid to Ukraine in 2024 stands at €18.7 billion, compared to €21.9 billion paid for Russian fossil fuels (https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russ...). But military support tells a different story: the EU and member states have committed €48.7 billion in military aid, including tanks, air-defense systems, and fighter jets (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/military-support-ukraine https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/military-support...). The claim that Europe is buying more from Russia than it’s giving Ukraine ignores the scale of military aid and the long-term shift away from Russian energy. It’s not perfect, but it’s far from "shambolic."