4 ms·

I agree most Netflix users probably have cable, and won't cut cable until there is a critical mass of content available online. I do think there is a tipping po

by NoPiece 14y ago

I agree most Netflix users probably have cable, and won't cut cable until there is a critical mass of content available online. I do think there is a tipping point not that far off, and when it happens the businesses that are already well established online like Netflix are best positioned to reap the rewards. HBO can position itself in resistance to the change, but risk being caught flat footed when it happens.

Steko 14y ago
"businesses that are already well established online like Netflix are best positioned to reap the rewards" Netflix is in a tight spot where in some delivery schemes they are an extra middleman that could end up being unneeded. Content -> Netflix -> Apple -> Users can very quickly collapse to Content -> Apple -> Users. So if the sea change comes from a wildly popular new Apple Smart TV that's bad news for Netflix. The same thing is going to be true if the cable companies manage to transfer their current cable monopoly to content on demand. The "best positioned businesses" are probably the content producers because Content -> Users is realistic long term model. Which is why Netflix is ramping up their own content (Lillehammer, House of Cards, Arrested Development...). That said even traditional content is under attack from all corners -- YouTube is commonly cited but there's also traditional console gaming, social apps, the social gaming apps, etc. In a few years I think we'll see more and more content startups based around animation-on-the-cheap tools like the forthcoming Source Filmmaker or NME (Taiwan Animated News). You could probably do a startup today that filled a cable channel with South Park quality original animation. Yes, that's very limited graphically but the competition (very low fee cable channels) is pretty godawful.
- NoPiece 14y ago
  Content producers are positioned well in theory, but in reality are ill equipped to compete because their whole business is build around old dying models. See how the majors in the music industry have fared. It is near impossible for big media companies to make major business shifts - they just don't have the culture to support it. Also, I'm not sure I'd call them content producers; they are more content financiers and distributors. Control of distribution is probably their main competitive advantage, which may be why they feel so threatened by the idea of shifting to the internet.

by NoPiece 14y ago

Steko 14y ago

"businesses that are already well established online like Netflix are best positioned to reap the rewards" Netflix is in a tight spot where in some delivery schemes they are an extra middleman that could end up being unneeded. Content -> Netflix -> Apple -> Users can very quickly collapse to Content -> Apple -> Users. So if the sea change comes from a wildly popular new Apple Smart TV that's bad news for Netflix. The same thing is going to be true if the cable companies manage to transfer their current cable monopoly to content on demand. The "best positioned businesses" are probably the content producers because Content -> Users is realistic long term model. Which is why Netflix is ramping up their own content (Lillehammer, House of Cards, Arrested Development...). That said even traditional content is under attack from all corners -- YouTube is commonly cited but there's also traditional console gaming, social apps, the social gaming apps, etc. In a few years I think we'll see more and more content startups based around animation-on-the-cheap tools like the forthcoming Source Filmmaker or NME (Taiwan Animated News). You could probably do a startup today that filled a cable channel with South Park quality original animation. Yes, that's very limited graphically but the competition (very low fee cable channels) is pretty godawful.

NoPiece 14y ago
Content producers are positioned well in theory, but in reality are ill equipped to compete because their whole business is build around old dying models. See how the majors in the music industry have fared. It is near impossible for big media companies to make major business shifts - they just don't have the culture to support it. Also, I'm not sure I'd call them content producers; they are more content financiers and distributors. Control of distribution is probably their main competitive advantage, which may be why they feel so threatened by the idea of shifting to the internet.