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I agree with your premise but not conclusion. I think there are people who take big unlikely risks. Statistically some of them succeed. Now they are big risk t

I agree with your premise but not conclusion. I think there are people who take big unlikely risks. Statistically some of them succeed. Now they are big risk takers with survivorship bias and illusions of self importance, AND lots power/money. And that can be scary.

isaacfrond 2y ago
Survivorship bias would be a good explanation for Musk's success, if he succeeded at one thing. But it doesn't explain having a string of successes.
- bdauvergne 2y ago
  The jury is still out if Tesla is is still a success, losing 50% of sales each year for the few next years could clearly go toward bankruptcy.
- jgeada 2y ago
  SpaceX and, for a time, Tesla. PayPal was already a success when he conned his way in. What other successes has he had? Twitter imploded when he took over, Boring company was never real, FSD at Tesla will never be real. And SpaceX is succeeding because they have a team dedicated to keeping him away from decision making. What he's had is an army of internet bots pumping up his supposed credentials (visible even in the voting patterns here on YN)
- consteval 2y ago
  It does if those successes aren’t based on you at all, which they’re not. In every instance, a lot of other people did all the work. Musk provided funds, which a machine could do. And, he did fail. A lot. But the more money you have, the more you can fail.
dangus 2y ago
It’s easy to take unlikely risks when you already have a “never need to work again” windfall. I can’t risk my retirement nest egg. If Peter Thiel ended PayPal with $55 million that means he could set aside ~$5-10 to live the rest of his life and risk the rest. So really I would argue that having a risk-adjacent personality isn’t related to skill. Thiel was willing to throw half a million dollars at random tech startups done by college dropouts and he also had a social network of his own thanks to doing the same with PayPal. So it’s about networking, capital, and timing more than skill. Thiel would be a nobody if he was born 10 years later. Where is the PayPal-like opportunity in today’s tech landscape? The modern startup is wildly capital heavy and loses money for possibly decades (e.g., Lyft just made its first profit EVER in 2024).

isaacfrond 2y ago

Survivorship bias would be a good explanation for Musk's success, if he succeeded at one thing. But it doesn't explain having a string of successes.

bdauvergne 2y ago
The jury is still out if Tesla is is still a success, losing 50% of sales each year for the few next years could clearly go toward bankruptcy.
jgeada 2y ago
SpaceX and, for a time, Tesla. PayPal was already a success when he conned his way in. What other successes has he had? Twitter imploded when he took over, Boring company was never real, FSD at Tesla will never be real. And SpaceX is succeeding because they have a team dedicated to keeping him away from decision making. What he's had is an army of internet bots pumping up his supposed credentials (visible even in the voting patterns here on YN)
consteval 2y ago
It does if those successes aren’t based on you at all, which they’re not. In every instance, a lot of other people did all the work. Musk provided funds, which a machine could do. And, he did fail. A lot. But the more money you have, the more you can fail.

dangus 2y ago

It’s easy to take unlikely risks when you already have a “never need to work again” windfall. I can’t risk my retirement nest egg. If Peter Thiel ended PayPal with $55 million that means he could set aside ~$5-10 to live the rest of his life and risk the rest. So really I would argue that having a risk-adjacent personality isn’t related to skill. Thiel was willing to throw half a million dollars at random tech startups done by college dropouts and he also had a social network of his own thanks to doing the same with PayPal. So it’s about networking, capital, and timing more than skill. Thiel would be a nobody if he was born 10 years later. Where is the PayPal-like opportunity in today’s tech landscape? The modern startup is wildly capital heavy and loses money for possibly decades (e.g., Lyft just made its first profit EVER in 2024).