2 ms·
He is a bit naive in general but he is mostly right. 1. Hyperfinancialization was a huge mistake (e.g. a house should not be an investment) 2. ZIRP was a huge
by alecco 2y ago
He is a bit naive in general but he is mostly right.
1. Hyperfinancialization was a huge mistake (e.g. a house should not be an investment)
2. ZIRP was a huge mistake: revenue matters, the current SP500 P/E ratio is insane. [1]
3. Manufacturing matters if you want to keep the blue collar people engaged economically. It's bewildering how US Democrats turned their back on their political base, the proletariat.
[1] https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings...
Now, what he gets wrong. China is also doing hyperfinancialization, just slightly different. Their housing market is crazy with tofu constructions and mostly empty cities. And they got already the Evergrande collapse. China also over-invests to take over markets, for example BYD is kind of a gigantic ponzi scheme [2].
[2] BYD’s Financial Time Bomb: A Replica of Evergrande's Collapse in the Making https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHpTWsBRIQs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHpTWsBRIQs
As many other people said, Trump is making a huge mistake on tariffs. He should be putting tariffs on the completed products but not on the supply chain. Block subsidized EVs but not the small parts for industry and make Europe do the same. This would prick the Chinese manufacturing bubble.
And about importing talent, the system needs an overhaul. The H1B system is completely rigged and most of it brings cheap consultants for jobs easily sourced locally. Improve local competition. But bring the high earners. Make H1B for say 300k and up salaries for a minimum 5 year contract. And they should have a very strict English test, I'm fed up with people who don't bother to learn basic English because they live in bubbles of their country (and I'm foreign).
Also, and this is probably controversial, make some Singapore-style limits on who immigrants can live with and marry, forcing very different cultures assimilate. No more ghettos of very different cultures fighting each other. See how that's turning up in Europe. Before you call me a n*zi, Soviets did something like that, too.
- tucnak 2y agoSurely there's more to economics than controlling who you get to marry brother!