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Yeah, there's a known problem with smart, technical people approaching fields about which they know very little. The analysis, to a third party, often sounds sm

Yeah, there's a known problem with smart, technical people approaching fields about which they know very little. The analysis, to a third party, often sounds smart (the author is undeniably smart!), but without having expert context, you miss why it's so, so, so wrong. And I'm not even an economics expert. I've just read more about it, or read more critically, than geohot. And I can tell you he's wrong, not because he's an outsider but because his analysis does not make sense. Copernicus had well-reasoned, self-consistent arguments that incorporated previous models, and produced better results. This doesn't. There is a rubric for how one should score outsider contributions, even if you want to allow for revolutions in a particular field. This essay doesn't rise to that level. In fact, it matches the first pattern -- smart person outside their field, makes ass of self -- much better. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_disease

hayst4ck 2y ago
I agree with your overall point. I think software security in particular is a skillset that is very well suited to deconstructing establishment dogma. The entire exercise of (novel) software security (specifically research) is ignoring what everyone says and asking how things actually work detail by detail. You look for indirect signals that betray other information to help understand underlying structure allowing you to better poke at it with whatever information prodding tools you have access to. The electricity graph is a very good example of that. A machine plugs into a wall and uses electricity. An aggregate graph of electricity consumption contains the information of how many machines are running in aggregate. You can argue that data is wrong, and I'm open to believing it is since I believe you can have a privately owned power source, but if you don't dispute the data, then a graph of electricity is very much a graph of aggregate manufacturing, also aggregate computing. Aggregate electricity should have a deeply entwined relationship with aggregate economic output. I'm not an economist, so apologies for any misused terms. Electricity is basically a raw material component for almost any good, even services likely have a relationship with electricity. I find that analysis cogent and satisfying. I've traveled a fair amount, and the amount of "third world"ism I see in the US is shocking. Before traveling it never occurred to me that San Francisco literally literally has slums. Meanwhile many places in "poorer" foreign countries are nicer than things I can find in the US even if I were to go looking for them.

hayst4ck 2y ago

I agree with your overall point. I think software security in particular is a skillset that is very well suited to deconstructing establishment dogma. The entire exercise of (novel) software security (specifically research) is ignoring what everyone says and asking how things actually work detail by detail. You look for indirect signals that betray other information to help understand underlying structure allowing you to better poke at it with whatever information prodding tools you have access to. The electricity graph is a very good example of that. A machine plugs into a wall and uses electricity. An aggregate graph of electricity consumption contains the information of how many machines are running in aggregate. You can argue that data is wrong, and I'm open to believing it is since I believe you can have a privately owned power source, but if you don't dispute the data, then a graph of electricity is very much a graph of aggregate manufacturing, also aggregate computing. Aggregate electricity should have a deeply entwined relationship with aggregate economic output. I'm not an economist, so apologies for any misused terms. Electricity is basically a raw material component for almost any good, even services likely have a relationship with electricity. I find that analysis cogent and satisfying. I've traveled a fair amount, and the amount of "third world"ism I see in the US is shocking. Before traveling it never occurred to me that San Francisco literally literally has slums. Meanwhile many places in "poorer" foreign countries are nicer than things I can find in the US even if I were to go looking for them.