So as right as one could reasonably expect in 2019 and 2020, but overly pessimistic in 2022? Admittedly, one would have had to been blind not to see the 2020 r

So as right as one could reasonably expect in 2019 and 2020, but overly pessimistic in 2022? Admittedly, one would have had to been blind not to see the 2020 recession coming. Whether it would have been a full blown depression absent stimulus is an open question - though it was the deepest recession since the Great Depression and other countries took much longer to pull themselves out of it. Of course, I think you'd have to be blind not to see the potential for a tighter economy now, assuming things continue the way they're going. We've certainly started cutting back on spending due to the chaos.