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Russia controls large portions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. I imagine walking away with those areas would be a huge victory for them.

Russia controls large portions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. I imagine walking away with those areas would be a huge victory for them. How long can Ukraine drag this out? They are suffering manpower issues more than Russia. I don't think it's likely that Russia will lose its patience before Ukraine. I wish, but I don't see it. Their economy is somewhat dependent on their military-industrial complex. Is this the goal? To slowly lose land and lives to Russia, in hopes that they get bored, or that Ukrainians magically get a wonder weapon?

skissane 2y ago
I think the Ukrainian hope is the war eventually becomes so unpopular in Russia that it endangers Putin’s rule. Then political instability strikes Moscow - Putin is removed in a coup or assassinated - and faced with the chaos in Moscow, Russian battlefield morale collapses, frontline troops are withdrawn to Moscow to fight over who is Putin’s successor, etc - suddenly Ukrainian troops massively advance How plausible is that scenario? I don’t know. It isn’t impossible. More likely to happen in a few years time (assuming the war lasts that long). Probably not happening this year, but one never knows - who predicted Prigozhin‘s abortive coup in June 2023? Who knows if or when such an event might happen again - maybe next time more successfully? Trump’s recent moves arguably reduce the odds of such a development by increasing Russian perceptions that the war is likely to be resolved on terms they’ll find favourable. However, Trump is fickle, and it isn’t impossible that with time he’ll move to a position the Russians will find less encouraging (it isn’t guaranteed, of course)
- arandomusername 2y ago
  Prigozhin's "coup" was probably the closest thing to it. Unfortunately I do not share your optimism in here - Putin planted him self well and surrounded himself by loyal men. Continuing to send men to die in a losing battle without an actual plan, hoping that the opponent's leadership falls, seems like an awful idea to me. It gives me similar vibes to "our scientists are on the verge of creating a wonder weapon" that is often propagated on losing sides, e.g Germany in WW2.
libertine 2y ago
It's hard to see that as a huge victory at the cost of more than 900.00p casualties for something Russia has plenty of - land. Also economic collapse (high inflation, high interest rates, and no industry). Ukraine just needs to continue to chip away at them, the bigger they are, the bigger the fall, and Russians aren't paying the price for this blunder yet.
- arandomusername 2y ago
  Not all land is created equally. Russia doesn't really value the lives of men. Been waiting for that economic collapse for 3 years. How many more Ukrainian men must die before we get it? How many more are you okay with dying?
  - motorest 2y ago
    > Been waiting for that economic collapse for 3 years. How many more Ukrainian men must die before we get it? How many more are you okay with dying? What possibly leads you to believe that Ukraine capitulating will end Russia's push to kill Ukrainians? Russia is engaging in a massive ethnic cleansing campaign, as documented in cases such as Bucha. Do you honestly believe that will stop if Ukraine surrendered as Trump is demanding them to? Try to think about it: why do you think Zelenski is so adamant in demanding security guarantees?
    - arandomusername 2y ago
      The regions that Russia is after, has some vague historic link to Russia, had a high pro Russian population percentage or provided land connection to Crimea as well as water supply that was blocked by Ukraine. I do believe that there is a good chance Putin would be satisfied with the eastern oblasts. It would also be a lot more difficult holding western part of Ukraine as their population is much more anti-Russia. I don't know for certain, and it is speculation, but that's what I think. I completely understand why Zelenskyy wants security guarantees. I would too in his place. I don't blame him for that at all - but I don't think it will happen and I would not want my country to provide any security guarantee for Ukraine. I personally would not go to war for Ukraine.

skissane 2y ago

I think the Ukrainian hope is the war eventually becomes so unpopular in Russia that it endangers Putin’s rule. Then political instability strikes Moscow - Putin is removed in a coup or assassinated - and faced with the chaos in Moscow, Russian battlefield morale collapses, frontline troops are withdrawn to Moscow to fight over who is Putin’s successor, etc - suddenly Ukrainian troops massively advance How plausible is that scenario? I don’t know. It isn’t impossible. More likely to happen in a few years time (assuming the war lasts that long). Probably not happening this year, but one never knows - who predicted Prigozhin‘s abortive coup in June 2023? Who knows if or when such an event might happen again - maybe next time more successfully? Trump’s recent moves arguably reduce the odds of such a development by increasing Russian perceptions that the war is likely to be resolved on terms they’ll find favourable. However, Trump is fickle, and it isn’t impossible that with time he’ll move to a position the Russians will find less encouraging (it isn’t guaranteed, of course)

arandomusername 2y ago
Prigozhin's "coup" was probably the closest thing to it. Unfortunately I do not share your optimism in here - Putin planted him self well and surrounded himself by loyal men. Continuing to send men to die in a losing battle without an actual plan, hoping that the opponent's leadership falls, seems like an awful idea to me. It gives me similar vibes to "our scientists are on the verge of creating a wonder weapon" that is often propagated on losing sides, e.g Germany in WW2.

libertine 2y ago

It's hard to see that as a huge victory at the cost of more than 900.00p casualties for something Russia has plenty of - land. Also economic collapse (high inflation, high interest rates, and no industry). Ukraine just needs to continue to chip away at them, the bigger they are, the bigger the fall, and Russians aren't paying the price for this blunder yet.

arandomusername 2y ago
Not all land is created equally. Russia doesn't really value the lives of men. Been waiting for that economic collapse for 3 years. How many more Ukrainian men must die before we get it? How many more are you okay with dying?
- motorest 2y ago
  > Been waiting for that economic collapse for 3 years. How many more Ukrainian men must die before we get it? How many more are you okay with dying? What possibly leads you to believe that Ukraine capitulating will end Russia's push to kill Ukrainians? Russia is engaging in a massive ethnic cleansing campaign, as documented in cases such as Bucha. Do you honestly believe that will stop if Ukraine surrendered as Trump is demanding them to? Try to think about it: why do you think Zelenski is so adamant in demanding security guarantees?
  - arandomusername 2y ago
    The regions that Russia is after, has some vague historic link to Russia, had a high pro Russian population percentage or provided land connection to Crimea as well as water supply that was blocked by Ukraine. I do believe that there is a good chance Putin would be satisfied with the eastern oblasts. It would also be a lot more difficult holding western part of Ukraine as their population is much more anti-Russia. I don't know for certain, and it is speculation, but that's what I think. I completely understand why Zelenskyy wants security guarantees. I would too in his place. I don't blame him for that at all - but I don't think it will happen and I would not want my country to provide any security guarantee for Ukraine. I personally would not go to war for Ukraine.