I was gonna take some issue with point one until I read point to, which sounds like it addresses my thoughts. China could take Taiwan quickly, but it would come

I was gonna take some issue with point one until I read point to, which sounds like it addresses my thoughts. China could take Taiwan quickly, but it would come at a pretty high cost to Chinese forces. I personally don't think China is really that invested into conquering Taiwan militarily, the Chinese invasion has been 6-9 months away for 30 years now according to "foreign policy" experts on Chinese-Taiwan relations. You can find books in the 90s predicting an invasion happening the following fall just as you see in today's articles. While the Chinese government is far from benevolent, if you go based on history, its more likely the US invades Taiwan than China. Other than border disputes with India and teaming up with the US to handle Somali pirates, China hasnt really had any real military activity since their failed campaign against Vietnam 40-50 years ago. At least that I know of. Which I would say perhaps backs up one point you may. Chinese forces could be massively weaker than expected. War sucks, but the tiniest benefit you can at least attribute to US interventions is, we do have some real combat experienced folks. China doesn't have any actual combat experience other than the once in a blue moon Chinese and Indian forces pop shots across the border, but no real sustained campaign. But yea, as we have also seen. Regardless of military might, rooting out guerilla forces is the hardest. The Taiwanese government may fall with China installing a military governor, but if the Taiwanese resort to guerilla warfare, it will be hard for Chinese forces to keep total control and stability for a long time. Just my thoughts though based on my knowledge. If anyone has anything to add, would be glad to read and learn more.