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Disagree with the implication here and expect the opposite. Ukraine peace (even an imperfect one) allows the US and Russia to work together to prevent Iran fro

Disagree with the implication here and expect the opposite. Ukraine peace (even an imperfect one) allows the US and Russia to work together to prevent Iran from getting a nuke. Ukraine won't get nukes in either scenario. An ongoing war forces Russia to rely on Iran, limiting its ability to work with US (and China), on isolating its nuclear program. DPRK nukes already exist and ROK is pressuring the US for permission for them (neither Biden or Trump want to give them). I don't know of any other latent nuclear states.

mitthrowaway2 2y ago
DPRK redoubled its nuclear program and shut down disarmament talks when Kim saw Saddam Hussein get regime-changed after he willingly cooperated with UN inspectors to show that there were no WMDs. They realized that cooperating doesn't get you anywhere and the only insurance is through nukes. Now Ukraine, which gave up its warheads, is seeing the same thing. And even Canadians are starting to discuss a nuclear guarantee. Yes, we are going to see more nuclear states. It may not happen overnight but the status quo won't hold either.
- nanotuber 2y ago
  The implication is that nuclear proliferation is linked to the US pausing Ukraine aid. That's a gross mischaracterization. I'll bet you 10 to 1 that Ukraine won't end up with nukes.
  - mitthrowaway2 2y ago
    Ukraine might not, at this point, because it may be too late for them under whatever heavy-handed peace deal gets imposed. It's all the other would-be Ukraines who are going to make nukes. Finland, Poland, South Korea, Taiwan... Better safe than sorry.
    - nanotuber 2y ago
      I'll buy you a beer if any of these regions have a nuke in 10 years.
      - mitthrowaway2 2y ago
        Sounds good. See you in 2035!
  - lovich 2y ago
    How did you move the goalposts in three sentences? Nuclear proliferation occurring does not require Ukraine in particular to be a country with nukes
    - nanotuber 2y ago
      Responding to what I thought the parent comment was saying. I'll buy you a beer if a new state (besides Iran) gets nuclear weapons in the next 10 years.
    - lovich 2y ago
      Nanotuber is a bot > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43264671 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43264671 Anyone have any proposals to fight propaganda like this on forums in general?
      - nanotuber 2y ago
        I am no bot. Dang can reach out to confirm etc. On the flip side, your comments have been incredibly disrespectful and flamewar-ish. You may not know me as a person, and may be paranoid about bots etc. But that does not mean you can mistreat me.
        lovich 2y ago
        AI can pass the Turing test, for observers of this interaction, don’t fall prey to the failure mode of the human mind where someone makes bold claims with no backing, but stated confidently as a way to hijack your perception of their correctness Nanotuber has made several claims without evidence beyond this forums posts as backing claim. I have made the claim that Nanotuber is a bot without evidence beyond this forums posts as backing. The Nanotuber account did not respond to my specific claims until I called out their lack of responding. The Nanotuber account also appealed to authority to the admins of this site by claiming I broke the rules on flame wars after I made the claim of being a bot, in a way to try and silence me by invoking admin action via reference to the rules of the forum These are are all subtle ways of automatically manufacturing consent via AI bots that can now replicate tone of voice and semantics in text. I’ll again repeat my request for anyone who comes across this thread. How do we combat these types of tactics?
ceejayoz 2y ago
> I don't know of any other latent nuclear states. Japan is sometimes described as a "screwdriver turn away from a bomb". They've got the materials, the know-how, the civilian nuclear program, and the rockets... and the geopolitics to be interested.
- nanotuber 2y ago
  That's a good point. Both the ROK and Japan though are cases where the US "pivoting to Asia" from Europe would make them less, not more, likely to pursue such a breakout. And in both cases, their incentives has existed prior to Ukraine.
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    The ROK and Japan must both factor in the possibility of America not coming to their aid in a similar fashion. That wasn't a super realistic consideration until a few weeks ago.
    - nanotuber 2y ago
      ROK and Japan have formal legal treaties. Ukraine does not. This hasn't stopped ROK from thinking the Biden Administration wouldn't come to its aid if push came to shove. I see your point but the effect is going to be much, much less "discrete" and more "diffuse" if at all. I'll buy you a beer if ROK or Japan have a nuke in 10 years.
- david-gpu 2y ago
  Arguably, most developed nations are in the same boat in terms of being able to build a bomb in relatively short notice. The main challenge is probably that refining uranium is intrinsically a slow process. I do wonder how many supposedly non-nuclear developed countries have secret small-scale refinement plants and the ability to assemble nuclear warheads in short notice. It is the sort of stuff that they wouldn't want their own populous to know, as it is controversial.
  - 2y ago

mitthrowaway2 2y ago

DPRK redoubled its nuclear program and shut down disarmament talks when Kim saw Saddam Hussein get regime-changed after he willingly cooperated with UN inspectors to show that there were no WMDs. They realized that cooperating doesn't get you anywhere and the only insurance is through nukes. Now Ukraine, which gave up its warheads, is seeing the same thing. And even Canadians are starting to discuss a nuclear guarantee. Yes, we are going to see more nuclear states. It may not happen overnight but the status quo won't hold either.

nanotuber 2y ago
The implication is that nuclear proliferation is linked to the US pausing Ukraine aid. That's a gross mischaracterization. I'll bet you 10 to 1 that Ukraine won't end up with nukes.
- mitthrowaway2 2y ago
  Ukraine might not, at this point, because it may be too late for them under whatever heavy-handed peace deal gets imposed. It's all the other would-be Ukraines who are going to make nukes. Finland, Poland, South Korea, Taiwan... Better safe than sorry.
  - nanotuber 2y ago
    I'll buy you a beer if any of these regions have a nuke in 10 years.
    - mitthrowaway2 2y ago
      Sounds good. See you in 2035!
- lovich 2y ago
  How did you move the goalposts in three sentences? Nuclear proliferation occurring does not require Ukraine in particular to be a country with nukes
  - nanotuber 2y ago
    Responding to what I thought the parent comment was saying. I'll buy you a beer if a new state (besides Iran) gets nuclear weapons in the next 10 years.
  - lovich 2y ago
    Nanotuber is a bot > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43264671 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43264671 Anyone have any proposals to fight propaganda like this on forums in general?
    - nanotuber 2y ago
      I am no bot. Dang can reach out to confirm etc. On the flip side, your comments have been incredibly disrespectful and flamewar-ish. You may not know me as a person, and may be paranoid about bots etc. But that does not mean you can mistreat me.
      - lovich 2y ago
        AI can pass the Turing test, for observers of this interaction, don’t fall prey to the failure mode of the human mind where someone makes bold claims with no backing, but stated confidently as a way to hijack your perception of their correctness Nanotuber has made several claims without evidence beyond this forums posts as backing claim. I have made the claim that Nanotuber is a bot without evidence beyond this forums posts as backing. The Nanotuber account did not respond to my specific claims until I called out their lack of responding. The Nanotuber account also appealed to authority to the admins of this site by claiming I broke the rules on flame wars after I made the claim of being a bot, in a way to try and silence me by invoking admin action via reference to the rules of the forum These are are all subtle ways of automatically manufacturing consent via AI bots that can now replicate tone of voice and semantics in text. I’ll again repeat my request for anyone who comes across this thread. How do we combat these types of tactics?

ceejayoz 2y ago

> I don't know of any other latent nuclear states. Japan is sometimes described as a "screwdriver turn away from a bomb". They've got the materials, the know-how, the civilian nuclear program, and the rockets... and the geopolitics to be interested.

nanotuber 2y ago
That's a good point. Both the ROK and Japan though are cases where the US "pivoting to Asia" from Europe would make them less, not more, likely to pursue such a breakout. And in both cases, their incentives has existed prior to Ukraine.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  The ROK and Japan must both factor in the possibility of America not coming to their aid in a similar fashion. That wasn't a super realistic consideration until a few weeks ago.
  - nanotuber 2y ago
    ROK and Japan have formal legal treaties. Ukraine does not. This hasn't stopped ROK from thinking the Biden Administration wouldn't come to its aid if push came to shove. I see your point but the effect is going to be much, much less "discrete" and more "diffuse" if at all. I'll buy you a beer if ROK or Japan have a nuke in 10 years.
david-gpu 2y ago
Arguably, most developed nations are in the same boat in terms of being able to build a bomb in relatively short notice. The main challenge is probably that refining uranium is intrinsically a slow process. I do wonder how many supposedly non-nuclear developed countries have secret small-scale refinement plants and the ability to assemble nuclear warheads in short notice. It is the sort of stuff that they wouldn't want their own populous to know, as it is controversial.
- 2y ago