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> I think it's far more likely the US will "sell" Taiwan to China for some deal that benefits the US financially or politicially. This will happen after USA ex
by VWWHFSfQ 2y ago
> I think it's far more likely the US will "sell" Taiwan to China for some deal that benefits the US financially or politicially.
This will happen after USA extricates all the meaningful tech and re-homes the institutions and workforce required to maintain that tech to the USA mainland. Still probably a decade or two away, but likely.
- bloppe 2y agoWhy would China will wait for a decade? They've been very clear about wanting to invade by 2027
- xxpor 2y agoThey want to be ready to invade by 2027. Very different.
- bloppe 2y agoI hope you're right, but I see no reason to be that optimistic.
- mtrovo 2y agoIf they're sure they can invade whenever they want, does it make sense to do it right now? What would they gain by sending all the good tech and researchers straight to the US? The longer they wait, the more advanced the tech they eventually steal might be. It's the golden goose story, but with a strategic rationale of when to kill the goose.
- bloppe 2y agoIt's not all about TSMC. The CCP has been very vocal about wanting to conquer Taiwan since long before TSMC even existed. Also, the longer they wait, the more tech gets transferred to the US, so even if it were all about TSMC, they would still be incentivized to act as soon as possible.
- r00fus 2y agoWho says they'll invade by 2027? Some Washington think tank?