5 ms·

Declined relative to its peak in the 2010s. It's climbing again. Ironically the decline set in after Brexit. It's also way higher than it ever was back when Br

Declined relative to its peak in the 2010s. It's climbing again. Ironically the decline set in after Brexit. It's also way higher than it ever was back when Britain was monoracial.

nickdothutton 2y ago
GDP per capita growth [1] has been more or less flat since 2008. The time of the GFC. I think people are starting to forget what productivity growth even feels like it has been so long. Subsequent governments set immigration to infinity to make GDP go up, but this has further exposed the fact that per-capita it is flat. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/uni...
- gadders 2y ago
  I remember when Tony Blair was elected and Gordon Brown proudly proclaimed "An end to boom and bust economics". I don't think many people realised this would be continuous bust with no boom ever.
- optimalsolver 2y ago
  So the graph there shows a huge jump in GDP per capita after Labour took power and opened up the UK to mass immigration in 1997. Am I reading this info right?
- FredPret 2y ago
  Check out these numbers: GDP per capita for the US, EU, and some others: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023&locations=EU-US-CN-IN-CA&start=1969 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023... The US was & is ahead per capita but you can see the EU and Canada taking a big hit in 2008 and going sideways after that. Here's full GDP. It tells a different story due to the EU's larger population. There have been several occasions where it actually had a larger economy than the US; but every time it seems to hit a roadblock and go sideways for a decade (1980, 1995, 2008): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2023&locations=EU-US-CN-IN-CA&start=1969 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2023...
gadders 2y ago
Brexit was around the same time as COVID, so hard to split the two. >> It's also way higher than it ever was back when Britain was monoracial. Yes, but the immigration model has changed. It used to be "let the best and brightest from around the world work and live in the UK" now it is "let anybody move here that is willing to work for less money".
- sdenton4 2y ago
  Well, no, actually. It's not hard to look at the expected effects of brexit and examine whether they are occurring. For example, decline in small forms exporting to Europe due to trades friction. "But the working assumption of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government's independent official forecaster, is still that Brexit in the long-term will reduce exports and imports of goods and services by 15% relative to otherwise. It has held this view since 2016, including under the previous Government." "And the OBR's other working assumption is that the fall in trade relative to otherwise will reduce the long-term size of the UK economy by around 4% relative to otherwise, equivalent to roughly £100bn in today's money." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
  - gadders 2y ago
    You mean the same civil service that was against Brexit from the start, still tries to justify it being a bad idea? Amazing. You even didn't include the paragraph prior to your quote: "It's also clear UK services exports - such as advertising and management consulting - have done unexpectedly well since 2021." I realise Brexit was a horrible shock for the middle classes that they are still coming to terms with, but I think long term it will be neutral or positive. Now that we have a more pro-UK president there is even scope of trade deals with the USA replacing some of the "lost" EU trade.
    - sdenton4 2y ago
      Right - I included the bottom line on trade. There's plenty more context in the article, and only a small sliver is at all good for the Brexiteer. Everyone agrees it's been between 6-30% worse on the trade front, and the OBR estimate is middle-of-the-road in that regard. Enjoy the kool-aid.
bossyTeacher 2y ago
Are you counting the English, Scottish and Northern Irish under the same racial group?

Declined relative to its peak in the 2010s. It's climbing again. Ironically the decline set in after Brexit. It's also way higher than it ever was back when Britain was monoracial.

nickdothutton 2y ago

GDP per capita growth [1] has been more or less flat since 2008. The time of the GFC. I think people are starting to forget what productivity growth even feels like it has been so long. Subsequent governments set immigration to infinity to make GDP go up, but this has further exposed the fact that per-capita it is flat. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/uni...

gadders 2y ago
I remember when Tony Blair was elected and Gordon Brown proudly proclaimed "An end to boom and bust economics". I don't think many people realised this would be continuous bust with no boom ever.
optimalsolver 2y ago
So the graph there shows a huge jump in GDP per capita after Labour took power and opened up the UK to mass immigration in 1997. Am I reading this info right?
FredPret 2y ago
Check out these numbers: GDP per capita for the US, EU, and some others: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023&locations=EU-US-CN-IN-CA&start=1969 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023... The US was & is ahead per capita but you can see the EU and Canada taking a big hit in 2008 and going sideways after that. Here's full GDP. It tells a different story due to the EU's larger population. There have been several occasions where it actually had a larger economy than the US; but every time it seems to hit a roadblock and go sideways for a decade (1980, 1995, 2008): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2023&locations=EU-US-CN-IN-CA&start=1969 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2023...

gadders 2y ago

Brexit was around the same time as COVID, so hard to split the two. >> It's also way higher than it ever was back when Britain was monoracial. Yes, but the immigration model has changed. It used to be "let the best and brightest from around the world work and live in the UK" now it is "let anybody move here that is willing to work for less money".

sdenton4 2y ago
Well, no, actually. It's not hard to look at the expected effects of brexit and examine whether they are occurring. For example, decline in small forms exporting to Europe due to trades friction. "But the working assumption of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government's independent official forecaster, is still that Brexit in the long-term will reduce exports and imports of goods and services by 15% relative to otherwise. It has held this view since 2016, including under the previous Government." "And the OBR's other working assumption is that the fall in trade relative to otherwise will reduce the long-term size of the UK economy by around 4% relative to otherwise, equivalent to roughly £100bn in today's money." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
- gadders 2y ago
  You mean the same civil service that was against Brexit from the start, still tries to justify it being a bad idea? Amazing. You even didn't include the paragraph prior to your quote: "It's also clear UK services exports - such as advertising and management consulting - have done unexpectedly well since 2021." I realise Brexit was a horrible shock for the middle classes that they are still coming to terms with, but I think long term it will be neutral or positive. Now that we have a more pro-UK president there is even scope of trade deals with the USA replacing some of the "lost" EU trade.
  - sdenton4 2y ago
    Right - I included the bottom line on trade. There's plenty more context in the article, and only a small sliver is at all good for the Brexiteer. Everyone agrees it's been between 6-30% worse on the trade front, and the OBR estimate is middle-of-the-road in that regard. Enjoy the kool-aid.

bossyTeacher 2y ago

Are you counting the English, Scottish and Northern Irish under the same racial group?