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The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. A better argument would be that whe

The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. A better argument would be that when China has "good enough" chips then they don't care about chip production in Taiwan. They will only care about sea access. So if Taiwan ends up as completely destroyed rock, then that is ok for China. They will see it as a much better result than other parts of China breaking away and becoming independent.

tyre 2y ago
> They will only care about sea access. This is not why the CCP cares about Taiwan. And they’ve cared quite a lot since before there were semiconductors.
- iwontberude 2y ago
  To follow up, Taiwan literally blocks their ability to see and defend against attacks coming from behind the Taiwanese island. It’s about observability and reducing easy beachheads.
  - greedo 2y ago
    It's about exerting political control.
  - Iolaum 2y ago
    Given the satellite assets China has I doubt it's true that Taiwan blocks China's abilities to see attacks coming from behind Taiwanese island.
    - iwontberude 2y ago
      This is specifically for missiles launched by submarines over Taiwan from just off the eastern coast.
  - NickC25 2y ago
    On a more macro issue, it's also existential for the CCP because it shows the Chinese people (I'm talking the entire worldwide diaspora of people who call themselves Chinese) that there are indeed ways forward socially, culturally, technologically, economically, and most importantly, politically that are valuable to society that don't involve the CCP. Hong Kong was a threat because it showed Chinese people directly that economic growth was possible without the CCP.
  - bloppe 2y ago
    China has the biggest Navy in the world and they regularly circumnavigate Taiwan. They're not just sitting there on the mainland with binoculars wishing they could see what's on the other side.
saghm 2y ago
> The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. I don't think these options are exclusive; more than one party can act irrationally at the same time.
DanielHB 2y ago
> The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. Doesn't make his point less valid, in fact it makes it probably more valid. When other people are acting irrationally you might as well do so too since you can't predict what other people will do in response.

tyre 2y ago

> They will only care about sea access. This is not why the CCP cares about Taiwan. And they’ve cared quite a lot since before there were semiconductors.

iwontberude 2y ago
To follow up, Taiwan literally blocks their ability to see and defend against attacks coming from behind the Taiwanese island. It’s about observability and reducing easy beachheads.
- greedo 2y ago
  It's about exerting political control.
- Iolaum 2y ago
  Given the satellite assets China has I doubt it's true that Taiwan blocks China's abilities to see attacks coming from behind Taiwanese island.
  - iwontberude 2y ago
    This is specifically for missiles launched by submarines over Taiwan from just off the eastern coast.
- NickC25 2y ago
  On a more macro issue, it's also existential for the CCP because it shows the Chinese people (I'm talking the entire worldwide diaspora of people who call themselves Chinese) that there are indeed ways forward socially, culturally, technologically, economically, and most importantly, politically that are valuable to society that don't involve the CCP. Hong Kong was a threat because it showed Chinese people directly that economic growth was possible without the CCP.
- bloppe 2y ago
  China has the biggest Navy in the world and they regularly circumnavigate Taiwan. They're not just sitting there on the mainland with binoculars wishing they could see what's on the other side.

saghm 2y ago

> The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. I don't think these options are exclusive; more than one party can act irrationally at the same time.

DanielHB 2y ago

> The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. Doesn't make his point less valid, in fact it makes it probably more valid. When other people are acting irrationally you might as well do so too since you can't predict what other people will do in response.