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The US would respond to with a freedom-of-navigation exercise backed up by the full might of US-PACOM. China would lose that standoff.
by drodgers 2y ago
The US would respond to with a freedom-of-navigation exercise backed up by the full might of US-PACOM. China would lose that standoff.
- nmeofthestate 2y agoCan we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.
- lupusreal 2y agoEven if the PRC can't be sure America would respond, a small risk of America responding has some deterrent effect. Hopefully enough.
- UltraSane 2y agoTrump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.
- seunosewa 2y agoHe has been predictable in his handling of Ukraine and Israel. He favours the aggressors. He's also predictable in isolationism and wanting manufacturing moved back to America. None of this bodes well for Taiwan.
- sras-me 2y ago> He favours the aggressors. What is your response to this video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD_KEFpuIro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD_KEFpuIro Transcript here: https://singjupost.com/transcript-jeffrey-sachs-on-the-geopolitics-of-peace-in-the-european-parliament/?singlepage=1 https://singjupost.com/transcript-jeffrey-sachs-on-the-geopo... >What was Putin’s intention in the war? I can tell you what his intention was. It was to force Zelensky to negotiate neutrality. And that happened within seven days of the start of the invasion. You should understand this, not the propaganda that’s written about this. >Oh, that they failed and he was going to take over Ukraine. Come on, ladies and gentlemen. Understand something basic. The idea was to keep NATO. And what is NATO? >It’s the United States off of Russia’s border. No more, no less. I should add one very important point. Why are they so interested? First, because if China or Russia decided to have a military base on the Rio Grande or in the Canadian border, not only would the United States freak out, we’d have war within about ten minutes.
- michpoch 2y agoWell, the EU has a Russian military base at its border, and did not escalate any war because of that?
- sras-me 2y agoI don't know, may be Russia see NATO + US as a much bigger threat than how NATO see Russia as a threat. Or may be NATO have some other ways of dealing with this threat.
- CamperBob2 2y agoI don't know, may be Russia see NATO + US as a much bigger threat than how NATO see Russia as a threat. That's certainly true now, even if it wasn't true before. So why would Putin act in a way that was absolutely guaranteed -- win, lose or draw -- to fortify and entrench NATO's presence on Russia's borders? His NATO excuse never made any sense. Don't invade anybody, and you have nothing to fear from NATO.
- sras-me 2y ago>His NATO excuse never made any sense. Don't invade anybody, and you have nothing to fear from NATO. May be he is/was worried about USA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOkl2XgZlw0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOkl2XgZlw0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzgPJeYZaOU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzgPJeYZaOU
- michpoch 2y ago> may be Russia see NATO + US as a much bigger threat than how NATO see Russia as a threat Or maybe Russia see eastern and central Europe as their sphere of influence, which they lost. And now they're using any excuse to try to re-establish that. What kind of NATO danger did they expect from Georgia? Russia had zero reason to see de-militarised Europe as a threat.
- wongarsu 2y agoPutin acts pretty rationally, just with flawed information. "Launching a full-scale invasion on the capital with the intention of negotiating neutrality" is a crazy plan he would never come up with. That's like beating someone up to get them to like you. The initial goal of the invasion was clearly to remove the democratically elected leadership of Ukraine, and then either incorporate it into Russia or (more likely) to install a puppet government that's more favorable of Russia. On day 7, the three-day military excursion to Kyiv had stalled, the Russian army was scrambling to establish supply routes and figure out logistics for a war that should have been over, and Putin was trying to convert a stalemate into something he could call a success. Nobody at the time would have claimed that his behavior on day 7 was reflective of his plans on day 1, when days 3-7 were clearly not going his way.
- UltraSane 2y agoHamas is the aggressor in the most recent war. They invaded Israel on Oct 7 2023 and killed 1200 people. If you adjust this for population that would be like Mexico invading the US and killing 41,000 people.
- DiogenesKynikos 2y agoIsrael has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians in Gaza. If you adjust for population, that's like Mexico bombing nearly every building in the US and killing 8 million people. Hamas is the aggressor only in a very immediate sense. Israel holds millions of Palestinians under military occupation, steals more and more of their land over time, and kills Palestinians all the time. From January 1st through October 7th 2023, when there was no war going on, Israel killed 234 Palestinians in the West Bank. That's just business as usual for Israel.
- xdennis 2y ago> He favours the aggressors. Not quite. He favours isolationism. It's just that Israel is an exception because many Americans (especially religious right wingers) view it akin to a 51st US state.
- nmeofthestate 2y agoI'm struggling to think of a time when his erratic behaviour has paid off in the geopolitical arena.
- skeeter2020 2y agoA smart friend suggested it triggers most rational leaders to be extra-cautious and may have a net-zero or even favourable impact on global politcs. We will see...
- trashtester 2y agoBeing unpredictable has advantages and also disadvantages, depending on setting. Though with an AI race going on and Musk practically living in the White House, I can't imagine the US would let China have Taiwan without a fight right now. Also, forcing TSMC to build a number of modern fabs in the US is sort of a warning to China to stay away AT LEAST until those fabs are done. If China attacks right now,I think we would see the full might of the US forces coming to their defense. AI right now has the same role as nukes had during the cold war. Nobody really knows how quickly it will develop, and many scenarios would allow those who get it first to take out all enemy nukes without much risk of receiving a retaliatory strike. For instance, AI may make it possible to build a virtually perfect missile defense against ICBMS, it may may allow perfect tracking of subs and other submarine threats, it may power drone swarms capabable of disabling any integrated air defense network, and even to destroy all enemy missile siles and nuclear subs whil minimizing loss of life. The US is not going to let China get there first, if they can stop it.
- snerbles 2y ago> AI may make it possible to build a virtually perfect missile defense against ICBMS Massed ICBM defense is a matter of sheer volume - with the current GMD system the US can throw enough exoatmospheric kill vehicles (and THAAD to handle the leftovers) to counter a handful of re-entry vehicles from a smaller nuclear power like North Korea or Iran. Not hundreds (vs China) or thousands (vs Russia) that you would see in a peer-level nuclear exchange where everyone has multi-megaton MIRVs, decoys, and SLBMs with much shorter flight times. Some fantasy future AI with the right sensors may perfectly track all of that sub-orbital mayhem. Without an enormous fleet of thousands of kill vehicles to actually defend against that threat, and the logistics to keep that fleet operational, it can do nothing about it. Building and supporting that sort of strategic defense is obscenely expensive, and as such it remains a Reagan-era fever dream.
- Iolaum 2y agoWhat unpredictable things has Trump's administration done regarding states that were considered the US's adversaries before his administration took over?
- generic92034 2y agohttps://gizmodo.com/trumps-defense-secretary-hegseth-orders-cyber-command-to-stand-down-on-all-russia-operations-2000570343 https://gizmodo.com/trumps-defense-secretary-hegseth-orders-...
- NickC25 2y agoThe CCP owns Trump. They could stroll into Taipei and Trump wouldn't lift a finger.
- nozzlegear 2y ago> The CCP owns Trump. I'm not going to bat for Trump – I don't like the guy – but this seems provably false just based on the fact that Trump has already applied tariffs to Chinese imports. Not only that, he's ratcheting up those tariffs because Beijing has so far refused to come to the table. He seems to be continuing his 2016 policy of economically antagonizing the Chinese.
- DrunkOnPower 2y agoFor sure. Trump is no friend of China. Russia on the other hand...
- NickC25 2y agoDonald Trump's daughter literally is the only non Chinese to own patents in China without a local partner. Apple, Microsoft, LVMH, Volkswagon, Ferrari, etc don't have that. Donald Trump is also deep in debt to Chinese banks.
- xdennis 2y agoHe's not unpredictable. He's extremely self interested which makes him predictable.
- DiogenesKynikos 2y agoIn a real shooting war, it would be suicidal for the US navy to go anywhere near Taiwan (at least early on in the war). China's arsenal of standoff weapons is orders of magnitude more potent than it was during the last Taiwan Straits Crisis.
- trashtester 2y agoI heard war games indicate that the US would lose at least a few carriers if they try to defend Taiwan. That may be more than worth it if they succeed. Taiwan is not like Ukraine. As long as TSMC has monopoly on the latest AI chips, it's at least as important as access to oil.
- drodgers 2y agoThe fab capacity would be gone, even if the defence succeeded. The process knowledge embedded in TSMC might survive though to rebuild it quickly.
- SimbaOnSteroids 2y agoIn a war game you steel man your opponents capabilities. I highly doubt China's entirely green military does that much damage.