6 ms·

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millen

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

nverno 2y ago
Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.
- bloomingkales 2y ago
  Why not buy them out? If you give everyone 100k it’s only 2.4 trillion. Or even better, just buy out the militant element.
  - sebzim4500 2y ago
    I think this strategy could possible work with the US taking Greenland (although I think that plan has been abandoned) but there is no way that Taiwan would accept such a small amount.
  - lupusreal 2y ago
    Would you subject your family to a Cultural Revolution in exchange for 100k? Add several zeros and assurances of safe passage out of the country and maybe you'd be onto something, but that's not going to happen for numerous reasons. The PRC already buys the loyalty of who they can in Taiwan, but Taiwan nevertheless remains resolute.
    - ecshafer 2y ago
      The cultural revolution happened 50-60 years ago. What culture would change in Taiwan? Mainland and Taiwan already share a lot of media.
      - ebruchez 2y ago
        I think the GP meant "a" cultural revolution, not "the" cultural revolution. But yes, the CCP taking over Taiwan would erode and then try to erase the beautiful and diverse culture of Taiwan. Schools will teach obedience to the CCP. History will be rewritten. Free media and foreign media will be censored. The entire set of democratic institutions of Taiwan will be dismantled. And you can go on and on.
  - borsecplata 2y ago
    Not everything is for sale, especially at this ridiculous price. Why would you think the taiwanese people are so poor that they would all betray their country for 100k?
    - _t9ow 2y ago
      > the taiwanese people are so poor that they would all betray their country for 100k? You'd be surprised. I'm not saying that all of them (or even most of them) will accept the payment, but there have been multiple cases of espionage committed by Taiwanese military personnel for extremely trifling amounts of monetary reward from the Chinese. Here's just one example: https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121222/8572208 https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121222/8572208 Excerpt: "檢警調查，李慧馨陳姓小弟在台北市中山區放款接觸軍人，2023年6月李女以新北市蘆洲區瑞磘宮主身分及宗教交流名義至澳門，再到大陸接觸國安情資人員，返台以金錢引誘缺錢軍人。李女等人要求軍人交出軍人身分證審核後，穿制服拿五星旗拍攝宣告投降影片，呼口號「中國人不打中國人，我反對戰爭」，用Telegram傳送交付影片「閱後即焚」，偷公務文書，交付航線圖、演習時間等多項軍機，收賄依資料機密程度計價，吸收同袍可提高報酬。張、林、劉、吳、彭、李姚姓及兩名陳姓現、退役軍人涉案，涵蓋陸軍、海軍、憲兵軍官、士官、士兵，最高階為中尉，僅劉獲利15萬元台幣(約4500美元)，其他人尚未拿到犯罪所得。" Translation: "According to the investigation by the police and prosecutors, Li Huixin's younger associate, surnamed Chen, was involved in lending money to military personnel in the Zhongshan District of Taipei City. In June 2023, Li traveled to Macau under the pretense of religious exchange and as the head of Ruixian Temple in Luzhou District, New Taipei City. From there, she went to mainland China and made contact with national security intelligence personnel. Upon returning to Taiwan, she used money to lure financially struggling military personnel. Li and her associates required military personnel to submit their military identification cards for verification. Afterward, they were asked to wear uniforms and film surrender videos while holding the Chinese five-star flag, chanting slogans such as "Chinese people do not fight Chinese people, I oppose war." These videos were then transmitted via Telegram with a self-destruct feature. The group also stole official documents and provided information such as flight paths and military exercise schedules. Bribes were paid based on the confidentiality level of the data, and recruiting fellow soldiers could increase rewards. The case involves active and retired military personnel with the surnames Zhang, Lin, Liu, Wu, Peng, Li, Yao, and two individuals surnamed Chen. The suspects come from various military branches, including the Army, Navy, and Military Police, spanning officers, non-commissioned officers, and enlisted soldiers. The highest-ranking officer involved was a lieutenant. Among them, only Liu received illicit gains amounting to NT$150,000 (approximately USD 4,500), while the others had not yet received any criminal proceeds."
- lawgimenez 2y ago
  I think you forgot that US has over 9 bases here, and we are less than a hundred miles below Taiwan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bases_in_the_Philippines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bases_in_the_Phi...
- borsecplata 2y ago
  There is no scenario possible in which china invades taiwan and "surprise" is involved. In ukraine it took months for russia to prepare at the border.
drodgers 2y ago
The US would respond to with a freedom-of-navigation exercise backed up by the full might of US-PACOM. China would lose that standoff.
- nmeofthestate 2y ago
  Can we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.
  - lupusreal 2y ago
    Even if the PRC can't be sure America would respond, a small risk of America responding has some deterrent effect. Hopefully enough.
  - UltraSane 2y ago
    Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.
    - seunosewa 2y ago
      He has been predictable in his handling of Ukraine and Israel. He favours the aggressors. He's also predictable in isolationism and wanting manufacturing moved back to America. None of this bodes well for Taiwan.
      - sras-me 2y ago
        > He favours the aggressors. What is your response to this video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD_KEFpuIro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD_KEFpuIro Transcript here: https://singjupost.com/transcript-jeffrey-sachs-on-the-geopolitics-of-peace-in-the-european-parliament/?singlepage=1 https://singjupost.com/transcript-jeffrey-sachs-on-the-geopo... >What was Putin’s intention in the war? I can tell you what his intention was. It was to force Zelensky to negotiate neutrality. And that happened within seven days of the start of the invasion. You should understand this, not the propaganda that’s written about this. >Oh, that they failed and he was going to take over Ukraine. Come on, ladies and gentlemen. Understand something basic. The idea was to keep NATO. And what is NATO? >It’s the United States off of Russia’s border. No more, no less. I should add one very important point. Why are they so interested? First, because if China or Russia decided to have a military base on the Rio Grande or in the Canadian border, not only would the United States freak out, we’d have war within about ten minutes.
lupusreal 2y ago
A blockade takes time to have an effect and that time gives US Navy SSNs time to start sinking the PLAN (in righteous response to the PLAN attacking merchant ships approaching Taiwan.) For the PRCs invasion of Taiwan to work with minimal risk of excessive losses, they need to do it very quickly so that it's a fait accompli, minimizing the chance of any American response at all.
- eloisius 2y ago
  Unfortunately energy security is not on Taiwan's side during a blockade. We only have one active nuclear energy plant here, a bit of wind and solar, but mostly imported coal and LNG. I think electricity rationing would happen more or less immediately.
lurk2 2y ago
> Always works Not even remotely true.
account42 2y ago
A country is much less dependent on imports for survival than a castle.

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

nverno 2y ago

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

bloomingkales 2y ago
Why not buy them out? If you give everyone 100k it’s only 2.4 trillion. Or even better, just buy out the militant element.
- sebzim4500 2y ago
  I think this strategy could possible work with the US taking Greenland (although I think that plan has been abandoned) but there is no way that Taiwan would accept such a small amount.
- lupusreal 2y ago
  Would you subject your family to a Cultural Revolution in exchange for 100k? Add several zeros and assurances of safe passage out of the country and maybe you'd be onto something, but that's not going to happen for numerous reasons. The PRC already buys the loyalty of who they can in Taiwan, but Taiwan nevertheless remains resolute.
  - ecshafer 2y ago
    The cultural revolution happened 50-60 years ago. What culture would change in Taiwan? Mainland and Taiwan already share a lot of media.
    - ebruchez 2y ago
      I think the GP meant "a" cultural revolution, not "the" cultural revolution. But yes, the CCP taking over Taiwan would erode and then try to erase the beautiful and diverse culture of Taiwan. Schools will teach obedience to the CCP. History will be rewritten. Free media and foreign media will be censored. The entire set of democratic institutions of Taiwan will be dismantled. And you can go on and on.
- borsecplata 2y ago
  Not everything is for sale, especially at this ridiculous price. Why would you think the taiwanese people are so poor that they would all betray their country for 100k?
  - _t9ow 2y ago
    > the taiwanese people are so poor that they would all betray their country for 100k? You'd be surprised. I'm not saying that all of them (or even most of them) will accept the payment, but there have been multiple cases of espionage committed by Taiwanese military personnel for extremely trifling amounts of monetary reward from the Chinese. Here's just one example: https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121222/8572208 https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121222/8572208 Excerpt: "檢警調查，李慧馨陳姓小弟在台北市中山區放款接觸軍人，2023年6月李女以新北市蘆洲區瑞磘宮主身分及宗教交流名義至澳門，再到大陸接觸國安情資人員，返台以金錢引誘缺錢軍人。李女等人要求軍人交出軍人身分證審核後，穿制服拿五星旗拍攝宣告投降影片，呼口號「中國人不打中國人，我反對戰爭」，用Telegram傳送交付影片「閱後即焚」，偷公務文書，交付航線圖、演習時間等多項軍機，收賄依資料機密程度計價，吸收同袍可提高報酬。張、林、劉、吳、彭、李姚姓及兩名陳姓現、退役軍人涉案，涵蓋陸軍、海軍、憲兵軍官、士官、士兵，最高階為中尉，僅劉獲利15萬元台幣(約4500美元)，其他人尚未拿到犯罪所得。" Translation: "According to the investigation by the police and prosecutors, Li Huixin's younger associate, surnamed Chen, was involved in lending money to military personnel in the Zhongshan District of Taipei City. In June 2023, Li traveled to Macau under the pretense of religious exchange and as the head of Ruixian Temple in Luzhou District, New Taipei City. From there, she went to mainland China and made contact with national security intelligence personnel. Upon returning to Taiwan, she used money to lure financially struggling military personnel. Li and her associates required military personnel to submit their military identification cards for verification. Afterward, they were asked to wear uniforms and film surrender videos while holding the Chinese five-star flag, chanting slogans such as "Chinese people do not fight Chinese people, I oppose war." These videos were then transmitted via Telegram with a self-destruct feature. The group also stole official documents and provided information such as flight paths and military exercise schedules. Bribes were paid based on the confidentiality level of the data, and recruiting fellow soldiers could increase rewards. The case involves active and retired military personnel with the surnames Zhang, Lin, Liu, Wu, Peng, Li, Yao, and two individuals surnamed Chen. The suspects come from various military branches, including the Army, Navy, and Military Police, spanning officers, non-commissioned officers, and enlisted soldiers. The highest-ranking officer involved was a lieutenant. Among them, only Liu received illicit gains amounting to NT$150,000 (approximately USD 4,500), while the others had not yet received any criminal proceeds."
lawgimenez 2y ago
I think you forgot that US has over 9 bases here, and we are less than a hundred miles below Taiwan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bases_in_the_Philippines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bases_in_the_Phi...
borsecplata 2y ago
There is no scenario possible in which china invades taiwan and "surprise" is involved. In ukraine it took months for russia to prepare at the border.

drodgers 2y ago

The US would respond to with a freedom-of-navigation exercise backed up by the full might of US-PACOM. China would lose that standoff.

nmeofthestate 2y ago
Can we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.
- lupusreal 2y ago
  Even if the PRC can't be sure America would respond, a small risk of America responding has some deterrent effect. Hopefully enough.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.
  - seunosewa 2y ago
    He has been predictable in his handling of Ukraine and Israel. He favours the aggressors. He's also predictable in isolationism and wanting manufacturing moved back to America. None of this bodes well for Taiwan.
    - sras-me 2y ago
      > He favours the aggressors. What is your response to this video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD_KEFpuIro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD_KEFpuIro Transcript here: https://singjupost.com/transcript-jeffrey-sachs-on-the-geopolitics-of-peace-in-the-european-parliament/?singlepage=1 https://singjupost.com/transcript-jeffrey-sachs-on-the-geopo... >What was Putin’s intention in the war? I can tell you what his intention was. It was to force Zelensky to negotiate neutrality. And that happened within seven days of the start of the invasion. You should understand this, not the propaganda that’s written about this. >Oh, that they failed and he was going to take over Ukraine. Come on, ladies and gentlemen. Understand something basic. The idea was to keep NATO. And what is NATO? >It’s the United States off of Russia’s border. No more, no less. I should add one very important point. Why are they so interested? First, because if China or Russia decided to have a military base on the Rio Grande or in the Canadian border, not only would the United States freak out, we’d have war within about ten minutes.

lupusreal 2y ago

A blockade takes time to have an effect and that time gives US Navy SSNs time to start sinking the PLAN (in righteous response to the PLAN attacking merchant ships approaching Taiwan.) For the PRCs invasion of Taiwan to work with minimal risk of excessive losses, they need to do it very quickly so that it's a fait accompli, minimizing the chance of any American response at all.

eloisius 2y ago
Unfortunately energy security is not on Taiwan's side during a blockade. We only have one active nuclear energy plant here, a bit of wind and solar, but mostly imported coal and LNG. I think electricity rationing would happen more or less immediately.

lurk2 2y ago

> Always works Not even remotely true.

account42 2y ago

A country is much less dependent on imports for survival than a castle.