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I don't think any startup in the past based their valuation on fundamentals. Not even the wildly successful ones like Facebook. People can't seem to distinguis

I don't think any startup in the past based their valuation on fundamentals. Not even the wildly successful ones like Facebook. People can't seem to distinguish between promises, bets, and fraud.

AndrewDucker 2y ago
Yes. The investors here are making a bet that AI goes supermassive and brings in a load of money. Some people at anthropic almost certainly do think they're going to be successful. I suspect that at least some of them are engaging in salesmanship at a level that makes it fraud.
- ergocoder 2y ago
  Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
  - AndrewDucker 2y ago
    It would be helpful if you would identify exactly which claim you thought was extraordinary so that people could engage with your comment productively.
    - ergocoder 2y ago
      This one: "I suspect that at least some of them are engaging in salesmanship at a level that makes it fraud."
      - AndrewDucker 2y ago
        That's a suspicion, as I made clear. And thus based on circumstancial evidence. Were I to have actual proof then I would have been more forthright in making a claim.
        ergocoder 2y ago
        A suspicion of something bad and illegal is an accusation. There's really no real distinction. You wouldn't say this kind of things to anyone without an evidence. "Hey boss. I suspect my teammate commits a fraud. But it's just a suspicion! I don't have any evidence!" Now replace fraud with equally heinous crimes like pedophilia and murder.
_mitterpach 2y ago
Of course, as a start-up you base your valuation on potential in the future, which should be well calculated based on how capable your employees are, how innovative your product is and what are the expected earnings. Do you think Anthropic is still a startup? That's an honest question, Wikipedia certainly seems to think so, (Anthropic PBC is an American artificial intelligence public-benefit startup founded in 2021.). I would typically say that once you have 61B valuation, you have to have a fundamentally sound business, and thus cease to be a startup, but I don't know where the line is drawn.
- ergocoder 2y ago
  Bringing up fraud is jarring. Failed bets are not fraud. Fraud is a huge accusation. There's a huge distinction between the twos. > which should be well calculated based on how capable your employees are, how innovative your product is and what are the expected earnings. If anyone can calculate this accurately, they would easily become a billionaire. Let's not pretend you (or anyone) know a good calculation lmao. Just because your personal "calculation" doesn't deem Anthropic worthy of the valuation / investment (and you might eventually be right) ... doesn't mean it is a fraud.

I don't think any startup in the past based their valuation on fundamentals. Not even the wildly successful ones like Facebook. People can't seem to distinguish between promises, bets, and fraud.

AndrewDucker 2y ago

Yes. The investors here are making a bet that AI goes supermassive and brings in a load of money. Some people at anthropic almost certainly do think they're going to be successful. I suspect that at least some of them are engaging in salesmanship at a level that makes it fraud.

ergocoder 2y ago
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
- AndrewDucker 2y ago
  It would be helpful if you would identify exactly which claim you thought was extraordinary so that people could engage with your comment productively.
  - ergocoder 2y ago
    This one: "I suspect that at least some of them are engaging in salesmanship at a level that makes it fraud."
    - AndrewDucker 2y ago
      That's a suspicion, as I made clear. And thus based on circumstancial evidence. Were I to have actual proof then I would have been more forthright in making a claim.
      - ergocoder 2y ago
        A suspicion of something bad and illegal is an accusation. There's really no real distinction. You wouldn't say this kind of things to anyone without an evidence. "Hey boss. I suspect my teammate commits a fraud. But it's just a suspicion! I don't have any evidence!" Now replace fraud with equally heinous crimes like pedophilia and murder.

_mitterpach 2y ago

Of course, as a start-up you base your valuation on potential in the future, which should be well calculated based on how capable your employees are, how innovative your product is and what are the expected earnings. Do you think Anthropic is still a startup? That's an honest question, Wikipedia certainly seems to think so, (Anthropic PBC is an American artificial intelligence public-benefit startup founded in 2021.). I would typically say that once you have 61B valuation, you have to have a fundamentally sound business, and thus cease to be a startup, but I don't know where the line is drawn.

ergocoder 2y ago
Bringing up fraud is jarring. Failed bets are not fraud. Fraud is a huge accusation. There's a huge distinction between the twos. > which should be well calculated based on how capable your employees are, how innovative your product is and what are the expected earnings. If anyone can calculate this accurately, they would easily become a billionaire. Let's not pretend you (or anyone) know a good calculation lmao. Just because your personal "calculation" doesn't deem Anthropic worthy of the valuation / investment (and you might eventually be right) ... doesn't mean it is a fraud.