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Taiwan is not Ukraine. The PRC is comparatively far larger and better equipped. A coordinated airborne assault would likely be successful negating the need for

Taiwan is not Ukraine. The PRC is comparatively far larger and better equipped. A coordinated airborne assault would likely be successful negating the need for a contested beach landing. Taiwan needs to embrace a more total defense strategy with stabilized MG turrets on most building roofs.

ggm 2y ago
There hasn't been a successful air assault at scale for some time. After Crete Nazi Germany never tried again. WW2 lessons abound for the limited value of deep penetration by air to supply ground troops. Helicopters are vulnerable to manpads in landing. You think nobody is going to notice the landing craft, Helicopter ships or the mass fleet air arm? Or the 3 day pounding to take out radar? Insertion of targeted special forces? Sure. Taiwan needs a more integrated defence strategy for sure but can we not pretend this is one and done seize control? You think the Taiwanese defence forces have failed to war game the scenarios? Without wishing to give in to ad hom what's your goal here? Pessimism to defeatism? Some kind of nihilist decision not to contest? Obviously for enough blood in the streets China will win.
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  No successful air assault? How about Panama or Grenada? Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses. To be sufficiently vulnerable to MANPADs you need enough of them in enough trained hands. If there is the element of surprise this does not happen. I envision a surprise air assault they flies below radar and establishes the coup before the army can get out of their barracks. The Taiwanese are not the 'rifle behind every blade of grass' type of people who have embraced total defense.
  - ggm 2y ago
    You cannot seriously compare the Taiwanese defence forces to Grenada or Panama. But I agree surprise could get them a lot. A long way. Assuming there is no edge defence radar doing over the horizon, nor satellite Intel, nor RF chatter, no other signs.
    - throwaway48476 2y ago
      You seclude the troops and do it at night under clouds with EMCON. All of these challenges are overcomeable.
  - defrost 2y ago
    > Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses. The first air assault failed outright. The second was a not quite success that held on for two weeks and was a definitive failure to meet objectives after a month. If you define "success" as they had a fortnight they held out for prior to being killed or forced to withdraw then yes, that was a success . . . Big picture wise .. not the game planned by Russia that was intended to seize and hold control of the airport while taking the capital. That was a definite face plant.
    - throwaway48476 2y ago
      If russia had planned an invasion and brought more weapons instead of dress uniforms and riot shields they may well have been successful. The initial air assault did meet its objectives regardless of failures later and elsewhere. This success is likely instructive for a potential Taiwan invasion. They need to take it more seriously and build a network of remote control turrets.

ggm 2y ago

There hasn't been a successful air assault at scale for some time. After Crete Nazi Germany never tried again. WW2 lessons abound for the limited value of deep penetration by air to supply ground troops. Helicopters are vulnerable to manpads in landing. You think nobody is going to notice the landing craft, Helicopter ships or the mass fleet air arm? Or the 3 day pounding to take out radar? Insertion of targeted special forces? Sure. Taiwan needs a more integrated defence strategy for sure but can we not pretend this is one and done seize control? You think the Taiwanese defence forces have failed to war game the scenarios? Without wishing to give in to ad hom what's your goal here? Pessimism to defeatism? Some kind of nihilist decision not to contest? Obviously for enough blood in the streets China will win.

throwaway48476 2y ago
No successful air assault? How about Panama or Grenada? Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses. To be sufficiently vulnerable to MANPADs you need enough of them in enough trained hands. If there is the element of surprise this does not happen. I envision a surprise air assault they flies below radar and establishes the coup before the army can get out of their barracks. The Taiwanese are not the 'rifle behind every blade of grass' type of people who have embraced total defense.
- ggm 2y ago
  You cannot seriously compare the Taiwanese defence forces to Grenada or Panama. But I agree surprise could get them a lot. A long way. Assuming there is no edge defence radar doing over the horizon, nor satellite Intel, nor RF chatter, no other signs.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    You seclude the troops and do it at night under clouds with EMCON. All of these challenges are overcomeable.
- defrost 2y ago
  > Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses. The first air assault failed outright. The second was a not quite success that held on for two weeks and was a definitive failure to meet objectives after a month. If you define "success" as they had a fortnight they held out for prior to being killed or forced to withdraw then yes, that was a success . . . Big picture wise .. not the game planned by Russia that was intended to seize and hold control of the airport while taking the capital. That was a definite face plant.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    If russia had planned an invasion and brought more weapons instead of dress uniforms and riot shields they may well have been successful. The initial air assault did meet its objectives regardless of failures later and elsewhere. This success is likely instructive for a potential Taiwan invasion. They need to take it more seriously and build a network of remote control turrets.