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> Inflation is the only thing voters care about to a very accurate first approximation. And yet there always seems to be a stark contrast between what conserva

> Inflation is the only thing voters care about to a very accurate first approximation. And yet there always seems to be a stark contrast between what conservatives state they voted for versus what studies bear out in that regard. Basically every election in my politically aware history has come down to "the economy" and yet conservatives can see all time highs across many metrics and decry something as a "bad economy" and immediately switch positions as soon as their guy is elected even though nothing material has changed around the economy. Just like it was never about the price of eggs in the latest election. The price of eggs is just the most politically correct thing they could latch onto to justify their votes. All talk of egg prices went silent despite the price of eggs continuing to rise. It's almost like something else was the primary issue all along. https://theintercept.com/2018/09/18/2016-election-race-class-trump/ https://theintercept.com/2018/09/18/2016-election-race-class...

energy123 2y ago
Metrics are averages that obscure the heterogeneity of base reality. About 100 million Americans own no significant assets. Metrics that show stonks going up is not lived by these people. They hold some fiat which deteriorated in value and a real wage which has declined because housing inflation is a larger proportion of their expenditure than what the CPI basket has weighted. Housing ownership is further out of reach than ever, while inequality has ballooned because asset owners doubled their wealth due to asset price inflation. So it is accurate that for this subset of people, inflation has been destructive, in an absolute sense but especially in a relative sense. And it's this subset of people that broke for Trump, educational polarization is at an all time high and the racial purity of Trump's base eroded with Hispanics entering the coalition.
- watwut 2y ago
  The same people will vote for radical conservatives after inflation and prices rises again. And they won't vote for democrats no matter well democrats run the economy. It is not inflation. Inflation is something they latch on when convenient.
  - energy123 2y ago
    Elections happen at the margins. Most Trump voters are Trump voters regardless of anything. But inflation is what moves the marginal vote. It's what motivates higher turnout on one side vs the other, for example. Dems performed well among the people that benefited from inflation -- boomers who owned homes and the college educated who own assets. Republicans performed well among the people who were harmed the most by it. Hispanics, and those without college degrees. Incumbents everywhere, left or right wing, are falling because of inflation.

energy123 2y ago

Metrics are averages that obscure the heterogeneity of base reality. About 100 million Americans own no significant assets. Metrics that show stonks going up is not lived by these people. They hold some fiat which deteriorated in value and a real wage which has declined because housing inflation is a larger proportion of their expenditure than what the CPI basket has weighted. Housing ownership is further out of reach than ever, while inequality has ballooned because asset owners doubled their wealth due to asset price inflation. So it is accurate that for this subset of people, inflation has been destructive, in an absolute sense but especially in a relative sense. And it's this subset of people that broke for Trump, educational polarization is at an all time high and the racial purity of Trump's base eroded with Hispanics entering the coalition.

watwut 2y ago
The same people will vote for radical conservatives after inflation and prices rises again. And they won't vote for democrats no matter well democrats run the economy. It is not inflation. Inflation is something they latch on when convenient.
- energy123 2y ago
  Elections happen at the margins. Most Trump voters are Trump voters regardless of anything. But inflation is what moves the marginal vote. It's what motivates higher turnout on one side vs the other, for example. Dems performed well among the people that benefited from inflation -- boomers who owned homes and the college educated who own assets. Republicans performed well among the people who were harmed the most by it. Hispanics, and those without college degrees. Incumbents everywhere, left or right wing, are falling because of inflation.