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Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I wo

Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.

re-thc 2y ago
> If I were China I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud). It's currently: - the best place to show military might (the "drills") - the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU - replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business
- roenxi 2y ago
  China is huge, huge things don't do subtlety well over any long timeframe. It is hard enough to get people to do move in sync with clear communications, let alone when there are confusing signals. If China says they want control of Taiwan, the base scenario is they are serious. The only thing holding them back is how expensive it is to execute on that want. Although since the action is off the Chinese coast and China appears to be stronger than the US right now I don't see how this ends well for Taiwan.
  - justahuman74 2y ago
    It's not just expense, it's generalized threat aversion. Even if China can control the waters around them, they may find them selves boxed in. It doesn't take a lot of sunken cargo ships for operators to refuse to run the boats
- throwaway290 2y ago
  > replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business explain?
  - re-thc 2y ago
    > explain? Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites. Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. A lot of Chinese gangs in Asia used to operate out of Hong Kong. When 1997 happened (i.e. return to China), most of them gave up or moved to other places like Taiwan since China has the death penalty.
    - throwaway290 2y ago
      > Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). Does that make it a place for shady deals? > There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites Gambling is illegal in Taiwan > Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. Citation needed
      - re-thc 2y ago
        > Does that make it a place for shady deals? Where do you expect them to go then? It's the most logical place. > Gambling is illegal in Taiwan They aren't offering gambling services in Taiwan to Taiwanese people. Hence it's definitely a gray area. > Citation needed VIA technologies? Too old, link likely wiped, but you can look the history. VIA technologies went into a JV with China in 2013 called Zhaoxin. Before that they literally never touched the x86 for years. There was no way for China to otherwise acquire an x86 license (this was before ARM would be a thing). For reference you can compare it to how AMD handled a similar JV [0] and see stark differences. AMD went to long lengths to protect their IP and then stopped once they no longer needed to. If we have to keep going, HTC also eventually suffered a similar but different fate. Funny that both companies have something to do with a certain someone... [0]: https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-thatic-jv-works/ https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-th...
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan China does. Xi does not. Trump has been the bailout to Xi that China’s wolf warriors and Putin were to America after the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.
  - re-thc 2y ago
    > China does. Xi does not. At the end of the day the leadership is who makes the decisions. The notion of a "country" does not.
    - luthus001 2y ago
      That's too simplistic. Even a dictator has to balance many things - the loyalty and competency of his generals, prevailing sentiments of his troops and of society in general, and much more. Large scale dissent is problematic even to authoritarians. An extended strike by key workers, like truck drivers, could cause outright collapse and regime change, so can a military coup by disgruntled troops. What Xi has said so far may have been misrepresented by the media, and exaggerated to rally public support for the new Cold War and for more military spending. What Xi actually said is he would not allow formal independence of Taiwan, and that he prefers closer relations/integration with Taiwan for an eventual "reunited" outcome, saying nothing of the status quo or that he would change it by force. For as long as the economic deterrence exists, I highly doubt that a war would happen over Taiwan barring one of 2 scenarios: 1)Taiwan declears formal independence by amending its Constitution, or 2) western troops, bases, or "security guarantees" are established over Taiwan
dev1ycan 2y ago
They've said so as much that they plan to give it a similar to hong kong style government if they wilingly join, and from the latest trump Q&A it almost confirms that once America has TSMC fabs running in their country they won't care to protect Taiwan. Being a realist Taiwan joining China willingly under those conditions before they basically technology transfer to America and make themselves worth much less (In China's eye), is their best bet, or I would say if ASML wasn't a thing. Sadly for Taiwan they are between a sword and a wall, ASML is required for them to continue innovating, if they were to annex themselves to China they would lose access to EUV and High NA EUV and basically lose their ability to produce sub 5nm semiconductors no matter how talented they are, and I don't think that SMEE in China is close to EUV let alone High NA EUV. I understand this comment will upset some people but I tried to be a realist about what would happen if things were to hit the fan
- abrookewood 2y ago
  A Hong-Kong style government doesn't mean as much as it used to.
- justahuman74 2y ago
  TSMC is 100% ruined if they join China, it is the end of it process competitiveness.
adastra22 2y ago
> If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they... What authority do you think China has over Taiwan?
- tehjoker 2y ago
  Both countries claim to be one China lol
  - adastra22 2y ago
    This take is ignorant of the last 20 years of Taiwanese politics.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > what authority do you think China has over Taiwan? Authority, none. Power, plenty.
  - adastra22 2y ago
    They can try and find out.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - rurp 2y ago
      Well, I hope they don't. Unless you know something the rest of the world doesn't China has Taiwan seriously outmatched both economically and militarily. The main question is if China takes minimal or significant losses in the event of an attack.
      - adastra22 2y ago
        I could say the same to you. Never in the history of humanity has there ever been an amphibious assault as large as would be required and over as far a distance as the Taiwan straight. And Taiwan is a veritable fortress. A warrens’ nest of hidden antiship missiles and ammunition sites.
gman83 2y ago
China broke promises about "One country, two systems" in Hong Kong, so I don't think Taiwan can count on any promises made there either.
- SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
  I old enough remember morons celebrating Taiwan’s “independence” from England. Yea… about that though. Thing everyone logical knew would happen, happened.

re-thc 2y ago

> If I were China I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud). It's currently: - the best place to show military might (the "drills") - the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU - replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

roenxi 2y ago
China is huge, huge things don't do subtlety well over any long timeframe. It is hard enough to get people to do move in sync with clear communications, let alone when there are confusing signals. If China says they want control of Taiwan, the base scenario is they are serious. The only thing holding them back is how expensive it is to execute on that want. Although since the action is off the Chinese coast and China appears to be stronger than the US right now I don't see how this ends well for Taiwan.
- justahuman74 2y ago
  It's not just expense, it's generalized threat aversion. Even if China can control the waters around them, they may find them selves boxed in. It doesn't take a lot of sunken cargo ships for operators to refuse to run the boats
throwaway290 2y ago
> replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business explain?
- re-thc 2y ago
  > explain? Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites. Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. A lot of Chinese gangs in Asia used to operate out of Hong Kong. When 1997 happened (i.e. return to China), most of them gave up or moved to other places like Taiwan since China has the death penalty.
  - throwaway290 2y ago
    > Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). Does that make it a place for shady deals? > There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites Gambling is illegal in Taiwan > Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. Citation needed
    - re-thc 2y ago
      > Does that make it a place for shady deals? Where do you expect them to go then? It's the most logical place. > Gambling is illegal in Taiwan They aren't offering gambling services in Taiwan to Taiwanese people. Hence it's definitely a gray area. > Citation needed VIA technologies? Too old, link likely wiped, but you can look the history. VIA technologies went into a JV with China in 2013 called Zhaoxin. Before that they literally never touched the x86 for years. There was no way for China to otherwise acquire an x86 license (this was before ARM would be a thing). For reference you can compare it to how AMD handled a similar JV [0] and see stark differences. AMD went to long lengths to protect their IP and then stopped once they no longer needed to. If we have to keep going, HTC also eventually suffered a similar but different fate. Funny that both companies have something to do with a certain someone... [0]: https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-thatic-jv-works/ https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-th...
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan China does. Xi does not. Trump has been the bailout to Xi that China’s wolf warriors and Putin were to America after the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.
- re-thc 2y ago
  > China does. Xi does not. At the end of the day the leadership is who makes the decisions. The notion of a "country" does not.
  - luthus001 2y ago
    That's too simplistic. Even a dictator has to balance many things - the loyalty and competency of his generals, prevailing sentiments of his troops and of society in general, and much more. Large scale dissent is problematic even to authoritarians. An extended strike by key workers, like truck drivers, could cause outright collapse and regime change, so can a military coup by disgruntled troops. What Xi has said so far may have been misrepresented by the media, and exaggerated to rally public support for the new Cold War and for more military spending. What Xi actually said is he would not allow formal independence of Taiwan, and that he prefers closer relations/integration with Taiwan for an eventual "reunited" outcome, saying nothing of the status quo or that he would change it by force. For as long as the economic deterrence exists, I highly doubt that a war would happen over Taiwan barring one of 2 scenarios: 1)Taiwan declears formal independence by amending its Constitution, or 2) western troops, bases, or "security guarantees" are established over Taiwan

dev1ycan 2y ago

They've said so as much that they plan to give it a similar to hong kong style government if they wilingly join, and from the latest trump Q&A it almost confirms that once America has TSMC fabs running in their country they won't care to protect Taiwan. Being a realist Taiwan joining China willingly under those conditions before they basically technology transfer to America and make themselves worth much less (In China's eye), is their best bet, or I would say if ASML wasn't a thing. Sadly for Taiwan they are between a sword and a wall, ASML is required for them to continue innovating, if they were to annex themselves to China they would lose access to EUV and High NA EUV and basically lose their ability to produce sub 5nm semiconductors no matter how talented they are, and I don't think that SMEE in China is close to EUV let alone High NA EUV. I understand this comment will upset some people but I tried to be a realist about what would happen if things were to hit the fan

abrookewood 2y ago
A Hong-Kong style government doesn't mean as much as it used to.
justahuman74 2y ago
TSMC is 100% ruined if they join China, it is the end of it process competitiveness.

adastra22 2y ago

> If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they... What authority do you think China has over Taiwan?

tehjoker 2y ago
Both countries claim to be one China lol
- adastra22 2y ago
  This take is ignorant of the last 20 years of Taiwanese politics.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> what authority do you think China has over Taiwan? Authority, none. Power, plenty.
- adastra22 2y ago
  They can try and find out.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - rurp 2y ago
    Well, I hope they don't. Unless you know something the rest of the world doesn't China has Taiwan seriously outmatched both economically and militarily. The main question is if China takes minimal or significant losses in the event of an attack.
    - adastra22 2y ago
      I could say the same to you. Never in the history of humanity has there ever been an amphibious assault as large as would be required and over as far a distance as the Taiwan straight. And Taiwan is a veritable fortress. A warrens’ nest of hidden antiship missiles and ammunition sites.

gman83 2y ago

China broke promises about "One country, two systems" in Hong Kong, so I don't think Taiwan can count on any promises made there either.

SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
I old enough remember morons celebrating Taiwan’s “independence” from England. Yea… about that though. Thing everyone logical knew would happen, happened.