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I doubt total sales have peaked. Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. But EVs are eating enough market share that combustion c

by _ea1k 2y ago

I doubt total sales have peaked. Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. But EVs are eating enough market share that combustion cars are likely never climbing past their peak again.

killerpopiller 2y ago
not necessarily, people in dense urban areas rely on other transportations at least in EU
- chgs 2y ago
  EU is a tiny portion of the global population (as is America) But you’re right, increasing urbanisation globally leads to more public transport which offsets countries getting richer.
mpreda 2y ago
> Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. What population growth?
- rsynnott 2y ago
  About 70 million per year at the moment. Current estimates have world population peaking in 2080.
  - psychoslave 2y ago
    Certainly not all estimates, right? We can certainly suppose different scenarios, with a large specter from humanity total disappearance to discovery of star gates technology opening plenty of inhabitable world without any actual alien threat existing in the outerspace. Also there can be wide gap in evolution from one government influence zone to an other, even at very small region scale — think Haiti and The Dominican Republic. https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151971 https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151971
aqme28 2y ago
Not everyone drives. If population growth is mostly in places where people bike/ebike/walk/train, then your assumption doesn’t hold.
- potato3732842 2y ago
  When those people get richer they'll want to drive. We see this all over the developing world. The growth might be less than the growth in mass transit but as populations become richer they become more mobile so the absolute demand will likely increase.
  - marssaxman 2y ago
    When I got richer, that meant I could afford to move somewhere I wouldn't have to drive all the time. Life is more pleasant here in the "15-minute city".

by _ea1k 2y ago

killerpopiller 2y ago

not necessarily, people in dense urban areas rely on other transportations at least in EU

chgs 2y ago
EU is a tiny portion of the global population (as is America) But you’re right, increasing urbanisation globally leads to more public transport which offsets countries getting richer.

mpreda 2y ago

> Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. What population growth?

rsynnott 2y ago
About 70 million per year at the moment. Current estimates have world population peaking in 2080.
- psychoslave 2y ago
  Certainly not all estimates, right? We can certainly suppose different scenarios, with a large specter from humanity total disappearance to discovery of star gates technology opening plenty of inhabitable world without any actual alien threat existing in the outerspace. Also there can be wide gap in evolution from one government influence zone to an other, even at very small region scale — think Haiti and The Dominican Republic. https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151971 https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151971

aqme28 2y ago

Not everyone drives. If population growth is mostly in places where people bike/ebike/walk/train, then your assumption doesn’t hold.

potato3732842 2y ago
When those people get richer they'll want to drive. We see this all over the developing world. The growth might be less than the growth in mass transit but as populations become richer they become more mobile so the absolute demand will likely increase.
- marssaxman 2y ago
  When I got richer, that meant I could afford to move somewhere I wouldn't have to drive all the time. Life is more pleasant here in the "15-minute city".