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What's strange to me is according to the graph it's not just combustion engine cars that peaked, cars overall more or less did too, in the graph. Are trucks li

What's strange to me is according to the graph it's not just combustion engine cars that peaked, cars overall more or less did too, in the graph. Are trucks like the F150 not being captured by this data? How literal is "cars"?

suraci 2y ago
This is exactly the problem. It's a game in the existing market without any additional growth. it's not strange, jeff bezos can buy dozens of yachts, but most people will only buy 1 car for several years
- umeshunni 2y ago
  That doesn't make any sense. There are 10s of millions of newly middle class consumers in Asia.
  - troymc 2y ago
    Maybe that's true, but maybe the average cost of a new car in Asia is quite a bit lower, so the overall effect is still declining total overall sales (measured in USD)? Here's a fascinating video about a city in China that's full of cute electric cars that cost less than $5000 USD each: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AomxytSwrkY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AomxytSwrkY
    - troymc 2y ago
      I looked around some more and it seems that it is, in fact, the total number of units sold that peaked, not the total dollars of sales. I found a good video that outlines all the reasons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsXxfx_UsVI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsXxfx_UsVI
  - suraci 2y ago
    that's another problem - inequality in the global value chain, China is the most important growth market for passenger vehicles for last 20+ years, this is because of China's continuous industrial upgrading, which has gradually shifted from manufacturing low value-added products (such as jeans) to producing high value-added products (such as passenger vehicles). this brings '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers', same thing happened in Japan/Korea/Taiwan too but now, china produced 30 million cars (12m evs) in 2024, which means China's passenger vehicle market will quickly approach saturation, even if all Chinese families purchase or replace new vehicles btw, '10s of millions newly consumers' is a relatively small number and there will be no other markets with '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers' unless other countries can accompolish industrial upgrading like China's did and if these countries(India/indonesia/Vietnam) manage to do so, their industrial upgrading will intensify this competition just like what happened in China now
b112 2y ago
This graph shows covid years, and it was hard to buy new due to shortages and shutdowns, and supply chain issues.
aprilthird2021 2y ago
Cars are too expensive new, that's why sales are down, imo
- know-how 2y ago
  And rates have been terrible, which depress auto loans.
IncreasePosts 2y ago
Probably looking at total vehicles on the road would be more useful. Maybe cars got a lot more reliable 20 years ago, and so there are a lot more cars still kicking from the early 2000s which would have been scrapped in the past.
csomar 2y ago
Slowdown in the West. This started before covid but was not visible because Asia is still growing.

suraci 2y ago

This is exactly the problem. It's a game in the existing market without any additional growth. it's not strange, jeff bezos can buy dozens of yachts, but most people will only buy 1 car for several years

umeshunni 2y ago
That doesn't make any sense. There are 10s of millions of newly middle class consumers in Asia.
- troymc 2y ago
  Maybe that's true, but maybe the average cost of a new car in Asia is quite a bit lower, so the overall effect is still declining total overall sales (measured in USD)? Here's a fascinating video about a city in China that's full of cute electric cars that cost less than $5000 USD each: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AomxytSwrkY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AomxytSwrkY
  - troymc 2y ago
    I looked around some more and it seems that it is, in fact, the total number of units sold that peaked, not the total dollars of sales. I found a good video that outlines all the reasons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsXxfx_UsVI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsXxfx_UsVI
- suraci 2y ago
  that's another problem - inequality in the global value chain, China is the most important growth market for passenger vehicles for last 20+ years, this is because of China's continuous industrial upgrading, which has gradually shifted from manufacturing low value-added products (such as jeans) to producing high value-added products (such as passenger vehicles). this brings '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers', same thing happened in Japan/Korea/Taiwan too but now, china produced 30 million cars (12m evs) in 2024, which means China's passenger vehicle market will quickly approach saturation, even if all Chinese families purchase or replace new vehicles btw, '10s of millions newly consumers' is a relatively small number and there will be no other markets with '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers' unless other countries can accompolish industrial upgrading like China's did and if these countries(India/indonesia/Vietnam) manage to do so, their industrial upgrading will intensify this competition just like what happened in China now

b112 2y ago

This graph shows covid years, and it was hard to buy new due to shortages and shutdowns, and supply chain issues.

aprilthird2021 2y ago

Cars are too expensive new, that's why sales are down, imo

know-how 2y ago
And rates have been terrible, which depress auto loans.

IncreasePosts 2y ago

Probably looking at total vehicles on the road would be more useful. Maybe cars got a lot more reliable 20 years ago, and so there are a lot more cars still kicking from the early 2000s which would have been scrapped in the past.

csomar 2y ago

Slowdown in the West. This started before covid but was not visible because Asia is still growing.