> May still hold true, the 2s10s has recently deinverted, which is typically the last stage pre-recession. Perhaps worth noting that Harvey's original paper wa

> May still hold true, the 2s10s has recently deinverted, which is typically the last stage pre-recession. Perhaps worth noting that Harvey's original paper was about 3-month and 10-year Treasuries, but 2-year is now used by some folks: > To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year Treasury note or a 3-month Treasury bill. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted.[4][5][6][7] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve * https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Term_structure/Harvey.pdf https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Term_structure/Harvey.pdf > Harvey: Flat or inverted yield curves are historically associated with slow economic growth or recessions. I did notice that the yield curve inversion of the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill yield curve preceded all four recession since the 1960s. My dissertation committee at the University of Chicago was concerned that this might be a fluke given there were only four recessions. Frankly, I was nervous too because it is well known in science that strong findings become weaker after publication -- or sometimes vanish. However, in my case, this did not happen. Yield curve inversions preceded each of the next three recessions, including the important global financial crisis. * https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yield-curve-inversion-explained-campbell-harvey https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yield-curve-inversion-explain...