6 ms·

All due to exports collapse (scroll to the bottom): https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3 https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3

All due to exports collapse (scroll to the bottom): https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3 https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3 May still hold true, the 2s10s has recently deinverted, which is typically the last stage pre-recession.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
Full forecast: https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq...
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  It is funny seeing this thread's title compared to the disclaimer right on the title page (specifically that the numbers in this report are NOT an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed): >Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee. Actually, it says that in the first sentence of the second paragraph on OP's link too: >GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.
  - rybosworld 2y ago
    Seems like a disclaimer more than anything. GDPNow is a forecast. And it's a forecast coming from the Atlanta Fed. The fact it's not "official" means what exactly?
    - dash2 2y ago
      It means they’re not prepared to stand behind it and stake their reputation on it.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > fact it's not "official" means what exactly? It means no humans in the loop. GDPNow is a tracking model designed for reading by experts. In this case, the context is the ISM Manufacturing report recorded a surge of imports while corresponding inventory numbers are still coming in. Once they do, the model will rebalance. To the extent the model is saying something, it’s that we need to watch inventories, particularly in construction.
toomuchtodo 2y ago
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-country https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-countr... https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/canada https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/canada https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/mexico https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/mexico https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/china https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/china https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/lis...
AnimalMuppet 2y ago
> May still hold true, the 2s10s has recently deinverted, which is typically the last stage pre-recession. For those of us not in the know, could you give some more detail? What is 2s10s, what does it mean that it's deinverted, and why is that typically the last stage pre-recession?
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
  My searching turned up this: https://www.simplify.us/blog/trading-2s10s-inversion https://www.simplify.us/blog/trading-2s10s-inversion So the difference in 2 year vs 10 year treasury bonds. If they are not trending in the same direction, the near term thinking is that the market is doing poorly.
- nostrademons 2y ago
  I assume they mean the 2 year Treasury vs. 10 year treasury yield curve (dunno what the s stands for). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Normally long-term bonds have higher interest rates than short-term bonds, because investors need to be paid more money to take the risk of locking up their money for longer time period. The exception is that when you expect interest rates to fall in the near future, it makes more sense to hold long-term bonds, because you lock in today's rates for a longer time period, while the investor that picks up 2 year bonds will have to roll them over at whatever they can get in two years. That bids up the price of long-term bonds, which makes the effective interest rate fall. This situation is called an "inverted" yield curve, because it is the opposite of the normal situation. A "deinverted" yield curve is when you have an inverted yield curve but the difference suddenly goes positive again. That's the situation we're in now, as you can see from the graph. And usually you get into that situation because the scenario investors feared actually happens: short-term interest rates drop, partially as a response from the Fed to inject more money into the economy and stave off the recession, and partially because stocks become very risky in a recession and so investors flee them and go to short-term bonds instead to preserve capital.
  - ummonk 2y ago
    The deinverting isn’t so much due to the Fed injecting money as it is an anticipation the Fed will inject money by cutting rates in the coming future. The 2 year yield drops in anticipation of the Fed dropping interest rates in the next couple years. That’s what makes it a leading indicator.
whatshisface 2y ago
After decades of seeing various administrations get blamed for economic downturns that were set up by conditions well preceding their terms, I guess it will be interesting to see what happens now that we're finally heading towards one that actually was caused by a discrete, identifiable policy, all within a couple of months.
- CamperBob2 2y ago
  Easy enough to forecast: he'll blame Biden, and his cult will lap it up.
  - throwup238 2y ago
    I feel like the defining feature of modern American conservatism is now a pathological inability to distinguish cause and effect.
    - kevin_thibedeau 2y ago
      Critical thinking makes baby Jesus cry.
      - MrMcCall 2y ago
        But adult Jesus says, "Whatever you do to anyone, you have done to me." Fakeass Christians don't understand that means undocumented folks, non-white folks, non-Christian folks, women, and folks of other sexual preferences and gender identities. "That which you do to the least of my brothers and sisters, that you do unto me." --Jesus of Nazareth "Love your neighbor as yourself." --Jesus of Nazareth The thing about the "No true Scotsman fallacy" is that the person does have to at least be a Scotsman, if that's what they're calling themself.
        prewett 2y ago
        > folks of other sexual preferences and gender identities Since Jesus was an observant Jew, who explicitly said that not a letter of the Mosaic Law would pass away, I don't think he would be support of sexual "preferences" and "gender identities". The Law pretty much placed everything except sex within marriage as out of bounds, and not only did Jesus uphold the Law, but he even upped the requirements from actions to unexpressed desires. For instance, the Law only required not committing the act of adultery, but Jesus said that even looking at someone lustfully was adultery. So I can't see Jesus being supportive, but rather saying "go and sin no more". Actually, I think Jesus was rather opposed to people who had identities of any sort, since he called people to an identity in himself. He had the harshest words for the Pharisees, who had an identity of "holy". The prostitutes and tax collectors and other "sinners" that Jesus hung out with agreed that they were not keeping the Law and repented of it, but if you've got an identity (that is, it is what you define yourself by), by definition you aren't going to be repentant about it.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
throw0101d 2y ago
> May still hold true, the 2s10s has recently deinverted, which is typically the last stage pre-recession. Perhaps worth noting that Harvey's original paper was about 3-month and 10-year Treasuries, but 2-year is now used by some folks: > To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year Treasury note or a 3-month Treasury bill. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted.[4][5][6][7] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve * https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Term_structure/Harvey.pdf https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Term_structure/Harvey.pdf > Harvey: Flat or inverted yield curves are historically associated with slow economic growth or recessions. I did notice that the yield curve inversion of the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill yield curve preceded all four recession since the 1960s. My dissertation committee at the University of Chicago was concerned that this might be a fluke given there were only four recessions. Frankly, I was nervous too because it is well known in science that strong findings become weaker after publication -- or sometimes vanish. However, in my case, this did not happen. Yield curve inversions preceded each of the next three recessions, including the important global financial crisis. * https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yield-curve-inversion-explained-campbell-harvey https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yield-curve-inversion-explain...
- smallmancontrov 2y ago
  I always wondered about the choice of 2 years, it's fascinating to learn that the original choice was 3 months. What motivated the change? Is 3 months so short that it captures "noise" not related to long term planning or something?
  - H8crilA 2y ago
    It's not really clear which one is "objectively better" to look at. The tradeoffs are exactly those that you've listed. But you know, for a given point of time you can look at the entire yield curve - that's what I usually do. And when it comes to plotting you can plot both differences (it's easy to do in FRED, you can do many fun things with time series there).
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
Looking at that graph, though, while exports collapse is certainly the biggest factor, it's not the only one. That is, looking at the March 3rd entry, "Residential Investment" is now negative, and if I'm reading it correctly (I hate it when colors on a graph are too similar) consumer spending is now zero when it was recently quite positive.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

Full forecast: https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq...

lotsofpulp 2y ago
It is funny seeing this thread's title compared to the disclaimer right on the title page (specifically that the numbers in this report are NOT an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed): >Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee. Actually, it says that in the first sentence of the second paragraph on OP's link too: >GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.
- rybosworld 2y ago
  Seems like a disclaimer more than anything. GDPNow is a forecast. And it's a forecast coming from the Atlanta Fed. The fact it's not "official" means what exactly?
  - dash2 2y ago
    It means they’re not prepared to stand behind it and stake their reputation on it.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > fact it's not "official" means what exactly? It means no humans in the loop. GDPNow is a tracking model designed for reading by experts. In this case, the context is the ISM Manufacturing report recorded a surge of imports while corresponding inventory numbers are still coming in. Once they do, the model will rebalance. To the extent the model is saying something, it’s that we need to watch inventories, particularly in construction.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-country https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-countr... https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/canada https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/canada https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/mexico https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/mexico https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/china https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports/china https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/lis...

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

> May still hold true, the 2s10s has recently deinverted, which is typically the last stage pre-recession. For those of us not in the know, could you give some more detail? What is 2s10s, what does it mean that it's deinverted, and why is that typically the last stage pre-recession?

0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
My searching turned up this: https://www.simplify.us/blog/trading-2s10s-inversion https://www.simplify.us/blog/trading-2s10s-inversion So the difference in 2 year vs 10 year treasury bonds. If they are not trending in the same direction, the near term thinking is that the market is doing poorly.
nostrademons 2y ago
I assume they mean the 2 year Treasury vs. 10 year treasury yield curve (dunno what the s stands for). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Normally long-term bonds have higher interest rates than short-term bonds, because investors need to be paid more money to take the risk of locking up their money for longer time period. The exception is that when you expect interest rates to fall in the near future, it makes more sense to hold long-term bonds, because you lock in today's rates for a longer time period, while the investor that picks up 2 year bonds will have to roll them over at whatever they can get in two years. That bids up the price of long-term bonds, which makes the effective interest rate fall. This situation is called an "inverted" yield curve, because it is the opposite of the normal situation. A "deinverted" yield curve is when you have an inverted yield curve but the difference suddenly goes positive again. That's the situation we're in now, as you can see from the graph. And usually you get into that situation because the scenario investors feared actually happens: short-term interest rates drop, partially as a response from the Fed to inject more money into the economy and stave off the recession, and partially because stocks become very risky in a recession and so investors flee them and go to short-term bonds instead to preserve capital.
- ummonk 2y ago
  The deinverting isn’t so much due to the Fed injecting money as it is an anticipation the Fed will inject money by cutting rates in the coming future. The 2 year yield drops in anticipation of the Fed dropping interest rates in the next couple years. That’s what makes it a leading indicator.

whatshisface 2y ago

After decades of seeing various administrations get blamed for economic downturns that were set up by conditions well preceding their terms, I guess it will be interesting to see what happens now that we're finally heading towards one that actually was caused by a discrete, identifiable policy, all within a couple of months.

CamperBob2 2y ago
Easy enough to forecast: he'll blame Biden, and his cult will lap it up.
- throwup238 2y ago
  I feel like the defining feature of modern American conservatism is now a pathological inability to distinguish cause and effect.
  - kevin_thibedeau 2y ago
    Critical thinking makes baby Jesus cry.
    - MrMcCall 2y ago
      But adult Jesus says, "Whatever you do to anyone, you have done to me." Fakeass Christians don't understand that means undocumented folks, non-white folks, non-Christian folks, women, and folks of other sexual preferences and gender identities. "That which you do to the least of my brothers and sisters, that you do unto me." --Jesus of Nazareth "Love your neighbor as yourself." --Jesus of Nazareth The thing about the "No true Scotsman fallacy" is that the person does have to at least be a Scotsman, if that's what they're calling themself.
      - prewett 2y ago
        > folks of other sexual preferences and gender identities Since Jesus was an observant Jew, who explicitly said that not a letter of the Mosaic Law would pass away, I don't think he would be support of sexual "preferences" and "gender identities". The Law pretty much placed everything except sex within marriage as out of bounds, and not only did Jesus uphold the Law, but he even upped the requirements from actions to unexpressed desires. For instance, the Law only required not committing the act of adultery, but Jesus said that even looking at someone lustfully was adultery. So I can't see Jesus being supportive, but rather saying "go and sin no more". Actually, I think Jesus was rather opposed to people who had identities of any sort, since he called people to an identity in himself. He had the harshest words for the Pharisees, who had an identity of "holy". The prostitutes and tax collectors and other "sinners" that Jesus hung out with agreed that they were not keeping the Law and repented of it, but if you've got an identity (that is, it is what you define yourself by), by definition you aren't going to be repentant about it.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

throw0101d 2y ago

> May still hold true, the 2s10s has recently deinverted, which is typically the last stage pre-recession. Perhaps worth noting that Harvey's original paper was about 3-month and 10-year Treasuries, but 2-year is now used by some folks: > To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year Treasury note or a 3-month Treasury bill. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted.[4][5][6][7] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve * https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Term_structure/Harvey.pdf https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Term_structure/Harvey.pdf > Harvey: Flat or inverted yield curves are historically associated with slow economic growth or recessions. I did notice that the yield curve inversion of the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill yield curve preceded all four recession since the 1960s. My dissertation committee at the University of Chicago was concerned that this might be a fluke given there were only four recessions. Frankly, I was nervous too because it is well known in science that strong findings become weaker after publication -- or sometimes vanish. However, in my case, this did not happen. Yield curve inversions preceded each of the next three recessions, including the important global financial crisis. * https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yield-curve-inversion-explained-campbell-harvey https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yield-curve-inversion-explain...

smallmancontrov 2y ago
I always wondered about the choice of 2 years, it's fascinating to learn that the original choice was 3 months. What motivated the change? Is 3 months so short that it captures "noise" not related to long term planning or something?
- H8crilA 2y ago
  It's not really clear which one is "objectively better" to look at. The tradeoffs are exactly those that you've listed. But you know, for a given point of time you can look at the entire yield curve - that's what I usually do. And when it comes to plotting you can plot both differences (it's easy to do in FRED, you can do many fun things with time series there).

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

Looking at that graph, though, while exports collapse is certainly the biggest factor, it's not the only one. That is, looking at the March 3rd entry, "Residential Investment" is now negative, and if I'm reading it correctly (I hate it when colors on a graph are too similar) consumer spending is now zero when it was recently quite positive.