4 ms·

Probably because Europe is not threatening them behind the scenes and perhaps offering money as well. Diversifying chip manufacturing more globally is pretty c

by tensor 2y ago

Probably because Europe is not threatening them behind the scenes and perhaps offering money as well. Diversifying chip manufacturing more globally is pretty crucial to maintaining the world order though. Sadly, having a fab in the US under the current administration is not helpful to the west in general. Getting TSMC or building an alternative to TSMC in Europe, UK, Canada, Australia, would be very smart. I believe a lot of the machines TSMC depends on are even produced in Europe, so there should be room to make some deal!

braincat31415 2y ago
I doulbt anyone will build a factory in Europe. It won't be competitive because of the energy prices on the continent.
- tensor 2y ago
  You realize that the US buys energy from Canada right? The US has no advantage on energy. Even in Europe, building more power capacity is simply a matter of wanting to.
  - braincat31415 2y ago
    Right. I do. The US buys a lot of it, and it is cheap. As for Europe, you are right, partially it's a matter of a mindset, however there are objective reasons for expensive energy. France's access to cheap uranium is almost gone. Europe refuses to sign long-term russian gas delivery contracts and are buying spot which costs arm and leg (whatever is left of it). German power plants are shuttered. LNG imported from the US is very expensive. Some German CEOs (I think Volkswagen if I recall correctly) said recently that Germany offers no competitive advantage these days. I agree. Where do you think manufacturing will go? Energy is everything.
    - tensor 2y ago
      However hard it is, the decline of the US is going to force Europe and the rest of the western countries to build out replacements for US labour and goods. The US is simply not a reliable trading partner nor ally under the new administration. Energy will be built.
      - braincat31415 2y ago
        The US and European alliance was a marriage of convenience. One of the results of Ukrainian conflict was manufacturing moving from Europe to the US. Energy has to be built from something, and Europe does not have it.
        tensor 2y ago
        Europe has sun and wind. In the time it would take the US to build one nuclear plant Europe can build over 10x as much renewable capacity, for 1/10th the cost. As much as I'm pro environmental protection, the reality is that a lot of places are preferring renewables because they are cheaper and faster to build than traditional power plants for the same energy outputs. Even Texas is building tons of renewables for this reason. So yes, energy will be built in Europe and elsewhere.
        braincat31415 2y ago
        One word: BS. Germany energy shortages were in the news early this year, and last year, and the year before then. See this, for example: https://www.power-technology.com/news/germany-wind-power-shortfall/ https://www.power-technology.com/news/germany-wind-power-sho... Germany and its renewables is just a laughing stock at this point. One cannot run an industry on renewables, and they are finding this out. There was already some talk about restarting nuclear power plants. With your optimism, they would have tackled this problem already. Texas already paid its price for their lack of investment in traditional generation facilities.
        weberer 2y ago
        Here's the real time state of Finland's power grid. Zoom out to the month view. Solar is pitiful this time of the year, and wind is horribly inconsistent. Some days the wind doesn't blow at all and the fossil fuel "co-generation" plants need to be spun up. You can't just ignore the demand for reliable, base load power. https://www.fingrid.fi/en/electricity-market/power-system/ https://www.fingrid.fi/en/electricity-market/power-system/
- spicybbq 2y ago
  Is chip manufacturing particularly energy intensive? I would expect that chip plants are not that price sensitive about electricity, within reason.
  - braincat31415 2y ago
    It is.
  - on_the_train 2y ago
    The light source uses a lot of power to produce those few hundreds of watts of radiation
  - magicalhippo 2y ago
    Seems your average semiconductor foundry needs around 100MW[1] to 200MW[2] of electrical power to operate. The main consumption is down to refrigeration chillers[3]. Average US house uses about 12600kWh per year[4], or 1.44kW average across a year. So that means one foundry takes about what 70k to 140k houses would take. [1]: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/operations/pdfs/bringing_fabenergyefficiency.ashx https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_serv... [2]: https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/6/24091367/semiconductor-manufacturing-us-electricity-consumption-renewable-energy-report https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/6/24091367/semiconductor-man... [3]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0278612521001412 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02786... [4]: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/c&e/pdf/ce2.1.pdf https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/c&e/pd...
- TFYS 2y ago
  Prices in the nordics aren't that bad.
  - braincat31415 2y ago
    It went up considerably because of nordic exports to the rest of Europe. They are producing enough for themselves, but not if they have to share. It's the same reason why US gas prices are somewhat on the high side lately - a lot of it is exported to Europe, and the price differential is large enough to make this worth the trouble.
- standardUser 2y ago
  For any energy intensive industry there is always the option to build new wind and solar for relatively cheap. But labor is cheaper and less regulated in the US and we make it easy to hire skilled immigrants. Having a pro-coal president probably doesn't hurt (but having an anti-wind president might). I think the bigger reasons are the security and trade issues. The US has embraced protectionism and is withdrawing from security obligations, yet Taiwan requires both US trade and US security guarantees to survive. Unlike with Ukraine, no other powers look capable of filling those roles if Trump keeps pursuing his America First agenda.

by tensor 2y ago

braincat31415 2y ago

I doulbt anyone will build a factory in Europe. It won't be competitive because of the energy prices on the continent.

tensor 2y ago
You realize that the US buys energy from Canada right? The US has no advantage on energy. Even in Europe, building more power capacity is simply a matter of wanting to.
- braincat31415 2y ago
  Right. I do. The US buys a lot of it, and it is cheap. As for Europe, you are right, partially it's a matter of a mindset, however there are objective reasons for expensive energy. France's access to cheap uranium is almost gone. Europe refuses to sign long-term russian gas delivery contracts and are buying spot which costs arm and leg (whatever is left of it). German power plants are shuttered. LNG imported from the US is very expensive. Some German CEOs (I think Volkswagen if I recall correctly) said recently that Germany offers no competitive advantage these days. I agree. Where do you think manufacturing will go? Energy is everything.
  - tensor 2y ago
    However hard it is, the decline of the US is going to force Europe and the rest of the western countries to build out replacements for US labour and goods. The US is simply not a reliable trading partner nor ally under the new administration. Energy will be built.
    - braincat31415 2y ago
      The US and European alliance was a marriage of convenience. One of the results of Ukrainian conflict was manufacturing moving from Europe to the US. Energy has to be built from something, and Europe does not have it.
      - tensor 2y ago
        Europe has sun and wind. In the time it would take the US to build one nuclear plant Europe can build over 10x as much renewable capacity, for 1/10th the cost. As much as I'm pro environmental protection, the reality is that a lot of places are preferring renewables because they are cheaper and faster to build than traditional power plants for the same energy outputs. Even Texas is building tons of renewables for this reason. So yes, energy will be built in Europe and elsewhere.
        braincat31415 2y ago
        One word: BS. Germany energy shortages were in the news early this year, and last year, and the year before then. See this, for example: https://www.power-technology.com/news/germany-wind-power-shortfall/ https://www.power-technology.com/news/germany-wind-power-sho... Germany and its renewables is just a laughing stock at this point. One cannot run an industry on renewables, and they are finding this out. There was already some talk about restarting nuclear power plants. With your optimism, they would have tackled this problem already. Texas already paid its price for their lack of investment in traditional generation facilities.
        weberer 2y ago
        Here's the real time state of Finland's power grid. Zoom out to the month view. Solar is pitiful this time of the year, and wind is horribly inconsistent. Some days the wind doesn't blow at all and the fossil fuel "co-generation" plants need to be spun up. You can't just ignore the demand for reliable, base load power. https://www.fingrid.fi/en/electricity-market/power-system/ https://www.fingrid.fi/en/electricity-market/power-system/
spicybbq 2y ago
Is chip manufacturing particularly energy intensive? I would expect that chip plants are not that price sensitive about electricity, within reason.
- braincat31415 2y ago
  It is.
- on_the_train 2y ago
  The light source uses a lot of power to produce those few hundreds of watts of radiation
- magicalhippo 2y ago
  Seems your average semiconductor foundry needs around 100MW[1] to 200MW[2] of electrical power to operate. The main consumption is down to refrigeration chillers[3]. Average US house uses about 12600kWh per year[4], or 1.44kW average across a year. So that means one foundry takes about what 70k to 140k houses would take. [1]: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/operations/pdfs/bringing_fabenergyefficiency.ashx https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_serv... [2]: https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/6/24091367/semiconductor-manufacturing-us-electricity-consumption-renewable-energy-report https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/6/24091367/semiconductor-man... [3]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0278612521001412 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02786... [4]: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/c&e/pdf/ce2.1.pdf https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/c&e/pd...
TFYS 2y ago
Prices in the nordics aren't that bad.
- braincat31415 2y ago
  It went up considerably because of nordic exports to the rest of Europe. They are producing enough for themselves, but not if they have to share. It's the same reason why US gas prices are somewhat on the high side lately - a lot of it is exported to Europe, and the price differential is large enough to make this worth the trouble.
standardUser 2y ago
For any energy intensive industry there is always the option to build new wind and solar for relatively cheap. But labor is cheaper and less regulated in the US and we make it easy to hire skilled immigrants. Having a pro-coal president probably doesn't hurt (but having an anti-wind president might). I think the bigger reasons are the security and trade issues. The US has embraced protectionism and is withdrawing from security obligations, yet Taiwan requires both US trade and US security guarantees to survive. Unlike with Ukraine, no other powers look capable of filling those roles if Trump keeps pursuing his America First agenda.