18 ms·

Is TSMC reason enough to invade an entire country ? (I mean, sure the west don't really an excuse do to the same, but I wonder) Can't they just "exfiltrate" or

Is TSMC reason enough to invade an entire country ? (I mean, sure the west don't really an excuse do to the same, but I wonder) Can't they just "exfiltrate" or "compromise" or "steal" company secrets and establish their own base in mainland China ? Genuinely curious as I know nothing of industrial espionage.

rwmj 2y ago
They've been doing that too (as well as attempting to steal secrets from ASML), but I guess having designs for building a fab isn't really the same as having the know-how from people who have worked on this for decades. The real danger from China invading Taiwan from a chip point of view is that they'd "sanction" the west and prevent us from getting any modern chips at all. Europe and even the US doesn't have leading edge fabs. Trump just disapplied the CHIPS Act too. The only other ones are in South Korea, so you can see where this is going ...
- grues-dinner 2y ago
  There is zero chance that anyone can invade a country and take its semiconductor infrastructure even vaguely intact if the defenders are disinclined to allow it. A cup of coffee dumped in the machinery would destroy most of it beyond all hope of repair, let alone something fragmentary and full of nitrogen bonds. The only sanction you could perform would be "no chips for anyone, anywhere". And in such a, uh, kinetic, situation, I'm absolutely sure neither side will allow the other to retain working facilities that don't undergo very unfortunate accidents. Even a sudden power cut can be devastating. A foil balloon was enough to take out multiple fabs in Germany, and Samsung dropped 3.5% of global flash supply on the floor from 30 minutes down. MAD doesn't come only in nuclear flavor.
  - rwmj 2y ago
    For sure, but I guess China would hope they could capture the population, who would go on to rebuild the fabs with their know-how.
    - grues-dinner 2y ago
      I wouldn't want to bet that you could do a $10 billion plus project to build the most complex facility in the world, in a tearing hurry and without complete documentation or vendor support, in a war economy and under international sanctions using a bunch of extremely pissed-off people and have the project go very well at all. And I'd also bet that a translation of Simple Sabotage would be going viral within the week.
  - AlbertoGP 2y ago
    > A foil balloon was enough to take out multiple fabs in Germany I didn't know about that incident; more details here: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/wayward-balloon-causes-power-outages-at-german-chip-fabs-deflating-hopes-of-curbing-semiconductor-shortage/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/wayward-balloon-c...
spacebanana7 2y ago
TSMC is very difficult to copy. Optimistically it'll take you the best part of a a decade to build a leading edge fab. At which point you'll be a decade behind TSMC.
- Qem 2y ago
  > At which point you'll be a decade behind TSMC. Moore law is losing steam. TSMC itself is probably just 10-20 years behind physical limits. A decade from now TSMC will run out of room to be much ahead anyway.
beng-nl 2y ago
Possible in principle, very hard in practice, even with full access to necessary asml machines and with a lot of experience and expertise without the difficulty of stealing incomplete information. They certainly can’t “just” do that, no :-). Source: see Intel, who have the money, experience, expertise, time, incentive and asml machines to do this and are making a big bet on gaining TSMC parity (at least). If the stock price is any indication, they are unlikely to succeed. Disclaimer: I work at Intel but in an unrelated area. My information in this area is the same as an interested outsider. I do fiercely want them to succeed in becoming the only tsmc competitor.
ksec 2y ago
>Is TSMC reason enough to invade an entire country ? This make it sounds like they will invade just because of TSMC, but it is more like using TSMC as an excuse if it really happen. China wants Taiwan, TSMC or not.

rwmj 2y ago

They've been doing that too (as well as attempting to steal secrets from ASML), but I guess having designs for building a fab isn't really the same as having the know-how from people who have worked on this for decades. The real danger from China invading Taiwan from a chip point of view is that they'd "sanction" the west and prevent us from getting any modern chips at all. Europe and even the US doesn't have leading edge fabs. Trump just disapplied the CHIPS Act too. The only other ones are in South Korea, so you can see where this is going ...

grues-dinner 2y ago
There is zero chance that anyone can invade a country and take its semiconductor infrastructure even vaguely intact if the defenders are disinclined to allow it. A cup of coffee dumped in the machinery would destroy most of it beyond all hope of repair, let alone something fragmentary and full of nitrogen bonds. The only sanction you could perform would be "no chips for anyone, anywhere". And in such a, uh, kinetic, situation, I'm absolutely sure neither side will allow the other to retain working facilities that don't undergo very unfortunate accidents. Even a sudden power cut can be devastating. A foil balloon was enough to take out multiple fabs in Germany, and Samsung dropped 3.5% of global flash supply on the floor from 30 minutes down. MAD doesn't come only in nuclear flavor.
- rwmj 2y ago
  For sure, but I guess China would hope they could capture the population, who would go on to rebuild the fabs with their know-how.
  - grues-dinner 2y ago
    I wouldn't want to bet that you could do a $10 billion plus project to build the most complex facility in the world, in a tearing hurry and without complete documentation or vendor support, in a war economy and under international sanctions using a bunch of extremely pissed-off people and have the project go very well at all. And I'd also bet that a translation of Simple Sabotage would be going viral within the week.
- AlbertoGP 2y ago
  > A foil balloon was enough to take out multiple fabs in Germany I didn't know about that incident; more details here: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/wayward-balloon-causes-power-outages-at-german-chip-fabs-deflating-hopes-of-curbing-semiconductor-shortage/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/wayward-balloon-c...

spacebanana7 2y ago

TSMC is very difficult to copy. Optimistically it'll take you the best part of a a decade to build a leading edge fab. At which point you'll be a decade behind TSMC.

Qem 2y ago
> At which point you'll be a decade behind TSMC. Moore law is losing steam. TSMC itself is probably just 10-20 years behind physical limits. A decade from now TSMC will run out of room to be much ahead anyway.

beng-nl 2y ago

Possible in principle, very hard in practice, even with full access to necessary asml machines and with a lot of experience and expertise without the difficulty of stealing incomplete information. They certainly can’t “just” do that, no :-). Source: see Intel, who have the money, experience, expertise, time, incentive and asml machines to do this and are making a big bet on gaining TSMC parity (at least). If the stock price is any indication, they are unlikely to succeed. Disclaimer: I work at Intel but in an unrelated area. My information in this area is the same as an interested outsider. I do fiercely want them to succeed in becoming the only tsmc competitor.

ksec 2y ago

>Is TSMC reason enough to invade an entire country ? This make it sounds like they will invade just because of TSMC, but it is more like using TSMC as an excuse if it really happen. China wants Taiwan, TSMC or not.