3 ms·

My predictions are that the Surface with Windows RT will still be buggy, and will have very little software support at launch, leading to poor reviews and sales

My predictions are that the Surface with Windows RT will still be buggy, and will have very little software support at launch, leading to poor reviews and sales. Surface Pro will have good reviews when that comes out three months later, and that will truly showcase the design of Windows 8. Unfortunately, the bad press from the Surface and relatively high price compared to an entry-level iPad will hurt sales. For many potential desktop and laptop customers, however, Windows 8 will be frustrating, plagued with poor reviews, and there will be a huge market for computers preloaded with Windows 7 for many years to come. Here's a review of the touch aspects of Windows 8, btw: http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2012/07/does-windows-8-succeed-as-a-true-tablet-operating-system/ http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2012/07/does-w...

MatthewPhillips 14y ago
I predict Windows RT will have more apps at launch than Android tablet currently exist.
- WiseWeasel 14y ago
  Oh man, I'll take that bet.
  - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
    I don't know why that's so surprising. Android tablets have only gotten any attention since the Kindle Fire came out. Windows 8 was announced before that, in September. Even if Windows tablets completely bomb, there's still going to be millions of PCs with Metro on them and the Windows Store staring in their face. And even though Metro apps are (somewhat) less useful on a PC, sheer number of users tells you that there is some market there. Whereas before the Kindle there wasn't much of an Android tablet market. And the Kindle really only got developers to stick their toes in the water, Nexus 7 is what solidifies it as a platform worth developing on. So in my mind, Windows 8/RT has had developer support longer than Android tablets.
    - WiseWeasel 14y ago
      Windows RT is Windows for the ARM processor. Software for Windows RT must be compiled specifically for the platform, and software for Windows 8, whether Metro or not, will not run in Windows RT. Why would a developer spend time working on Windows RT software when there are zero customers for it, rather than for iOS or Android? Those Nexus 7 tablets you mention are flying off the shelves faster than Acer or Asus or whoever can make them. You can't even get a Windows RT device to test your software on yet.
      - upthedale 14y ago
        This isn't correct. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WinRT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WinRT "Programs can be written using Windows Runtime that will run on both the X86 and ARM editions of Windows 8 without modification." The entire point of WinRT (read: Metro-style apps) is the you can code it once, and it will run on either platform. > Why would a developer spend time working on Windows RT software Because they don't have to spend any extra time over writing the same application for x86-based Windows 8
        WiseWeasel 14y ago
        Ah, thanks for the correction. Apparently it is possible to support both x86 and ARM if you write Metro apps using Windows Runtime, or WinRT, not to be confused with Windows RT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_RT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_RT). The wording ("can be written") seems like a qualifier to me however, with potential gotchas. I guess the question would be whether existing Metro software is in fact compatible with Windows RT. Then there's the fact that there simply isn't much Metro software available in the first place.
        upthedale 14y ago
        The link I gave was just my lazy attempt at citing something. Wikipedia is hardly reliable source No. 1. In reality, it is my understanding the Windows RT (the OS), can only run applications designed for Metro/WinRT (the runtime). That is, any Metro application out there should be compatible with both Windows 8 and Windows RT (the OS). (There may well be gotchas around reusing some native libraries, but I suspect these would be few and far between). So to your earlier 'bet' you went against... > ...Windows RT will have more apps at launch than Android tablet currently exist. Well Windows RT (the OS) should have the same number of (Metro-style) apps as Windows 8, given my understanding from above. I'd expect this to be a pretty high number once the devices hit, given that Developer Preview (and therefore the tools to make these apps) have been out for nearly a year now. Counting the number of Android tablet apps is more difficult. I wouldn't count the full total of Android apps, only ones optimised for a larger screen. First you have to define it. On Google Play's store, I could only find one list of apps for Tablets, which only has around 250 apps: https://play.google.com/store/apps/collection/tablet_featured?start=240&num=24 https://play.google.com/store/apps/collection/tablet_feature... (Given that I was able to get to the 11th page). If betting the number of Windows RT apps against 250, I know which I'd put my money on. Of course, there may well be more than 250. How on earth does one find them though? (In my quick searching, I came across this article from the honeycomb days, which still seems to apply: http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/mystery-how-many-android-tablet-apps/ http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/mystery-how-many-a...)
- Metrop0218 14y ago
  That's a tough bet to make. Maybe. But I'd say 6 months or more after launch they'll have more

MatthewPhillips 14y ago

I predict Windows RT will have more apps at launch than Android tablet currently exist.

WiseWeasel 14y ago
Oh man, I'll take that bet.
- MatthewPhillips 14y ago
  I don't know why that's so surprising. Android tablets have only gotten any attention since the Kindle Fire came out. Windows 8 was announced before that, in September. Even if Windows tablets completely bomb, there's still going to be millions of PCs with Metro on them and the Windows Store staring in their face. And even though Metro apps are (somewhat) less useful on a PC, sheer number of users tells you that there is some market there. Whereas before the Kindle there wasn't much of an Android tablet market. And the Kindle really only got developers to stick their toes in the water, Nexus 7 is what solidifies it as a platform worth developing on. So in my mind, Windows 8/RT has had developer support longer than Android tablets.
  - WiseWeasel 14y ago
    Windows RT is Windows for the ARM processor. Software for Windows RT must be compiled specifically for the platform, and software for Windows 8, whether Metro or not, will not run in Windows RT. Why would a developer spend time working on Windows RT software when there are zero customers for it, rather than for iOS or Android? Those Nexus 7 tablets you mention are flying off the shelves faster than Acer or Asus or whoever can make them. You can't even get a Windows RT device to test your software on yet.
    - upthedale 14y ago
      This isn't correct. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WinRT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WinRT "Programs can be written using Windows Runtime that will run on both the X86 and ARM editions of Windows 8 without modification." The entire point of WinRT (read: Metro-style apps) is the you can code it once, and it will run on either platform. > Why would a developer spend time working on Windows RT software Because they don't have to spend any extra time over writing the same application for x86-based Windows 8
      - WiseWeasel 14y ago
        Ah, thanks for the correction. Apparently it is possible to support both x86 and ARM if you write Metro apps using Windows Runtime, or WinRT, not to be confused with Windows RT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_RT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_RT). The wording ("can be written") seems like a qualifier to me however, with potential gotchas. I guess the question would be whether existing Metro software is in fact compatible with Windows RT. Then there's the fact that there simply isn't much Metro software available in the first place.
        upthedale 14y ago
        The link I gave was just my lazy attempt at citing something. Wikipedia is hardly reliable source No. 1. In reality, it is my understanding the Windows RT (the OS), can only run applications designed for Metro/WinRT (the runtime). That is, any Metro application out there should be compatible with both Windows 8 and Windows RT (the OS). (There may well be gotchas around reusing some native libraries, but I suspect these would be few and far between). So to your earlier 'bet' you went against... > ...Windows RT will have more apps at launch than Android tablet currently exist. Well Windows RT (the OS) should have the same number of (Metro-style) apps as Windows 8, given my understanding from above. I'd expect this to be a pretty high number once the devices hit, given that Developer Preview (and therefore the tools to make these apps) have been out for nearly a year now. Counting the number of Android tablet apps is more difficult. I wouldn't count the full total of Android apps, only ones optimised for a larger screen. First you have to define it. On Google Play's store, I could only find one list of apps for Tablets, which only has around 250 apps: https://play.google.com/store/apps/collection/tablet_featured?start=240&num=24 https://play.google.com/store/apps/collection/tablet_feature... (Given that I was able to get to the 11th page). If betting the number of Windows RT apps against 250, I know which I'd put my money on. Of course, there may well be more than 250. How on earth does one find them though? (In my quick searching, I came across this article from the honeycomb days, which still seems to apply: http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/mystery-how-many-android-tablet-apps/ http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/mystery-how-many-a...)
Metrop0218 14y ago
That's a tough bet to make. Maybe. But I'd say 6 months or more after launch they'll have more