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The market might still end up for the year, it will just be a more volatile year. It would be very unlikely to see another double digit gains year in a row. T
by slashdev 2y ago
The market might still end up for the year, it will just be a more volatile year.
It would be very unlikely to see another double digit gains year in a row.
That being said, it could also crash hard and not recover to these levels for a decade. There is lots of historical precedence for that - especially at these valuations.
I’m chiefly concerned about tariffs, housing market weakness, labor market weakness, and reversing global liquidity flows (maybe by the end of the year).
Just chilling in mostly gold and treasuries is looking very attractive on a risk adjusted basis.
- thfuran 2y agoOr it could be down for many decades. The Nikkei 225 is only just this year reaching where it was in 1989.
- slashdev 2y agoExactly. The stock market only got back to the highs of 1929, in inflation adjusted terms by 1960. So worst case, it can take 30 years or more to recover. Japan took even longer.
- thfuran 2y agoWorst case, the current stupidity fully cements US's fall from hegemony, moves the world away from USD as a reserve currency, reverses global brain drain to US, and the economy never recovers.