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Divorce probably isn't the best example to support your point: Fifty percent of first marriages, 67 percent of second and 74 percent of third marriages end in

Divorce probably isn't the best example to support your point: Fifty percent of first marriages, 67 percent of second and 74 percent of third marriages end in divorce, according to Jennifer Baker of the Forest Institute of Professional Psychology in Springfield, Missouri. http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=363986 http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=363986 I tend to see a stronger distinction between pain and depression.

yummyfajitas 18y ago
Your numbers suggest very little, one way or the other. People who make bad marriage choices are more likely to get divorced. Bayes rule implies that divorcees are therefore more likely to be the type of people who make bad marriage choices, and second/third marriages are more likely to fail. I'll give a simple numerical example. I assume some people marry badly, and have an intrinsically higher probability of divorce. I assume the probability of divorce does not change after the first marriage. Let MB = Marries Badly, and D = Divorce. Assume P(MB)=0.5, P(D|MB)=0.9 and P(D|!MB)=0.1. Then: P(MB | D) = P(D | MB) P(MB) / P(D) = 0.9 x 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.9. So 90% of divorcees marry badly. Therefore, a person who has gotten one divorce has a probability of getting divorced on their second marriage of: P(D | MB) x 0.9 + P(D | !MB) x 0.1 = 0.82 Therefore, in this model, 50% of first marriages and 82% of second marriages will end in divorce.
- electromagnetic 18y ago
  I agree, the statistics seem to show that divorcees should have a huge failure rate, however all evidence seems to indicate that their judgment improves after they've been divorced, as the second marriage rate is surprisingly close to first marriages to say its composed almost entirely of people who failed the first time.
  - yummyfajitas 18y ago
    Other statistics might show this (if so, please post them), but my model proves little. I could tweak it to get 67% second marriage failure rate (first marriage has no effect, good or bad), or 60% failure rate (first marriage adversely affects the second). More complex models are possible too. My point is simply that the numbers provided prove nothing.
    - JoelSutherland 18y ago
      They certainly prove that someone who has been divorced and remarries is still worse at staying married than the person who has not been divorced. I don't think that is nothing.
electromagnetic 18y ago
To say second marriages usually only occur in people whose first marriage failed, it seems to illustrate the point that people in fact have a lower chance to divorce in their second marriage. In a sample of only divorced people, they've obviously learnt something because their 2nd marriage should be destined for 100% chance of failure because they've already illustrated they failed at marriage. Surely someone who has been divorced twice is guaranteed to fail? I mean they obviously picked poorly twice, so why does 26% of third marriages survive? Because obviously they've learnt from their mistakes, they're not choosing cheaters or losers the 3rd time?! Obviously the numbers are going to be biased to lower percentages because there's more than just divorce's entering the 2nd and 3rd marriages, there's also widow/er's and such who already succeeded once as they made it to the whole 'until death do we part'. However, second marriages should be a lot more complex than first due to the addition of age, careers and children. Edit: The thing never made clear in divorce statistics is something that seems to avoid common sense. You can only get married a second time if you've been divorced once, so the second marriage category is nearly 100% composed of divorce's as 50% of first marriages survive! The real statistics are: 24.79% of total marriages fail. Out of 100 people 50 succeed the first time. Out of 50 people ~16.5 succeed the second time. Out of 33.5 people 8.71 people succeed the third time, meaning 24.79 people fail past a third marriage, that's less than 75% of the population; so really the gross marriage rate heads towards 100% success not 100% failure. Interestingly 93% of fourth marriages end in divorce, which would show that roughly 23% of people are incapable of marriage. With this 23% removed, then the total success rate for marriage is 100%, that eventually people will end up in a successful marriage even after a failure or two.

yummyfajitas 18y ago

Your numbers suggest very little, one way or the other. People who make bad marriage choices are more likely to get divorced. Bayes rule implies that divorcees are therefore more likely to be the type of people who make bad marriage choices, and second/third marriages are more likely to fail. I'll give a simple numerical example. I assume some people marry badly, and have an intrinsically higher probability of divorce. I assume the probability of divorce does not change after the first marriage. Let MB = Marries Badly, and D = Divorce. Assume P(MB)=0.5, P(D|MB)=0.9 and P(D|!MB)=0.1. Then: P(MB | D) = P(D | MB) P(MB) / P(D) = 0.9 x 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.9. So 90% of divorcees marry badly. Therefore, a person who has gotten one divorce has a probability of getting divorced on their second marriage of: P(D | MB) x 0.9 + P(D | !MB) x 0.1 = 0.82 Therefore, in this model, 50% of first marriages and 82% of second marriages will end in divorce.

electromagnetic 18y ago
I agree, the statistics seem to show that divorcees should have a huge failure rate, however all evidence seems to indicate that their judgment improves after they've been divorced, as the second marriage rate is surprisingly close to first marriages to say its composed almost entirely of people who failed the first time.
- yummyfajitas 18y ago
  Other statistics might show this (if so, please post them), but my model proves little. I could tweak it to get 67% second marriage failure rate (first marriage has no effect, good or bad), or 60% failure rate (first marriage adversely affects the second). More complex models are possible too. My point is simply that the numbers provided prove nothing.
  - JoelSutherland 18y ago
    They certainly prove that someone who has been divorced and remarries is still worse at staying married than the person who has not been divorced. I don't think that is nothing.

electromagnetic 18y ago

To say second marriages usually only occur in people whose first marriage failed, it seems to illustrate the point that people in fact have a lower chance to divorce in their second marriage. In a sample of only divorced people, they've obviously learnt something because their 2nd marriage should be destined for 100% chance of failure because they've already illustrated they failed at marriage. Surely someone who has been divorced twice is guaranteed to fail? I mean they obviously picked poorly twice, so why does 26% of third marriages survive? Because obviously they've learnt from their mistakes, they're not choosing cheaters or losers the 3rd time?! Obviously the numbers are going to be biased to lower percentages because there's more than just divorce's entering the 2nd and 3rd marriages, there's also widow/er's and such who already succeeded once as they made it to the whole 'until death do we part'. However, second marriages should be a lot more complex than first due to the addition of age, careers and children. Edit: The thing never made clear in divorce statistics is something that seems to avoid common sense. You can only get married a second time if you've been divorced once, so the second marriage category is nearly 100% composed of divorce's as 50% of first marriages survive! The real statistics are: 24.79% of total marriages fail. Out of 100 people 50 succeed the first time. Out of 50 people ~16.5 succeed the second time. Out of 33.5 people 8.71 people succeed the third time, meaning 24.79 people fail past a third marriage, that's less than 75% of the population; so really the gross marriage rate heads towards 100% success not 100% failure. Interestingly 93% of fourth marriages end in divorce, which would show that roughly 23% of people are incapable of marriage. With this 23% removed, then the total success rate for marriage is 100%, that eventually people will end up in a successful marriage even after a failure or two.