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Since at least Obama, the US has been trying to exit Europe and form a dentent with Russia so they can "pivot to Asia". Europe trying to undermine the US exit f

Since at least Obama, the US has been trying to exit Europe and form a dentent with Russia so they can "pivot to Asia". Europe trying to undermine the US exit from ukraine will be just the excuse trump is looking for to withdraw (the 100,000+ troops, and massive military spending on NATO in the EU, etc.). This means no government in Europe will actually do anything about Ukraine -- the risk to the collapse of NATO is too great. Ukraine has always been a bit of political theatre for the west, and all Trump is doing is forcing the show to end -- which is one of the real shocks to the system. What is most bitterly disliked by both the public and elite in europe is that they might actually have to do something on behalf of ukraine that risks their own security and, of course, they never will and never would. Europe humiliated as a paper tiger will give Trump no great headlines in european newspapers: this is the real psychological shock. Trump actually means to end the war, and if that fails, withdraw US support. What a predicament for everyone who wants the war to continue -- they'd actually have to risk something. And hence, this will all be over very quickly. It's well known the russian elite contain a large pro-western contingent, though the public in russia is not and much more pro-war than the elite. Putin is looking at a way of returning the economic situation to a pre-war state without angering the public -- without it "all being for nothing" and so on. So the deal Trump will offer will be accepted there, and if it isnt accepted in the EU he'll withdraw US support. There has not been, to my knowledge, a single proposal by the pro-war axis to achieve any other outcome. And of course not, the pro-war sentiment in the west, is a paper-tiger charade to boost their own credibility and punish russia for informing them that the 2000s are over and the USA is not the lone superpower in the system. That Russia (, and china of course) intend to act like the US in their own spheres of influence, and use their militaries to achive political ends. This was only supposed to be a US privilige. The world is now a game between US, Russia and China -- and the leaders of these nations are looking to rapidly normalize and stablizle relations -- because they are each their significant threats -- everything else is a distraction. Especially the EU, which will do nothing to change that -- indeed: why bother? Sit back and get rich whilst the bullies waste their money in fights.

cheema33 2y ago
> Trump actually means to end the war What he really wants is for Ukraine to surrender its lands to Russia. And he is also unwilling to ask Russia to give any concessions. We did sign the Budapest memorandum. Ukraine gave up its nukes in exchange for security guarantees from the US. Shame on us for not honoring it. Also, Ukraine and Europe is not pro-war. They want Russians to go back to their own country. You are calling people who are defending their country from an invader, and their supporters, pro-war axis.
- mjburgess 2y ago
  There's a Russian army on that land, so its not entirely clear who would be surrendering it. I am not against Europe sending in an army if it wishes. I am not against your pro-war position which seeks, via military means, to retake land in Russia's control. I am more pointing out that you're not actually willing to do anything about it. You're not willing to take any risk to your own security. You can have whatever position you want, but a political slogan isnt a policy -- its not an argument, or a position. It's just some theatrical ploy to make yourself feel better: what is the policy you have (or anyone) to retake the land under russian control? How do you intend to end the war? Ask the school teacher to put Russia in detention? Trump is withdrawing from Ukraine, there is nothing anyone can do about that. If Europe wishes Ukraine to retain all of its land, and far fewer of its lives, it will have to risk its own security. It will not, nor will you: this is the source of the hatred for trump, it requires people of your mind to act -- and that was never on the table I'd imagine the US actions might well violate Budapest, but that was extremely watered down at the time from "gaurentees" to "assurances" so its a very weak position to start with. But in any case the world which now exists has three great powers: US, China, Russia. All three are now "pivoting to each other", and away from non-rivaling activity. If europe doesnt like this, or you don't -- I have no issue with that: go on, do something. The US is not pivoting back to the EU now, under no administration. Just as Biden retained Trump's pivot against China, the next admin (dem or rep) will retain his piovt from the EU -- since both have been the desire of every president over the last 20+ years.
  - jemmyw 2y ago
    Russia isn't a great power. Their economy is hollow. They have influence and military power inherited from the Soviet Union, but they don't have the capacity to keep that going, it's been nearly entirely expended on this one jaunt in Ukraine. They have a shrinking population of 144m and have shed their best in the last 2 years. India is a greater power with much more potential energy.
hdjjhhvvhga 2y ago
> It's well known the russian elite contain a large pro-western contingent, though the public in russia is not and much more pro-war than the elite. Putin is looking at a way of returning the economic situation to a pre-war state without angering the public -- without it "all being for nothing" and so on. It would be nice if it was true. Someone else might argue that Putin just wants to extend its empire westwards as much as he is allowed to.

cheema33 2y ago

> Trump actually means to end the war What he really wants is for Ukraine to surrender its lands to Russia. And he is also unwilling to ask Russia to give any concessions. We did sign the Budapest memorandum. Ukraine gave up its nukes in exchange for security guarantees from the US. Shame on us for not honoring it. Also, Ukraine and Europe is not pro-war. They want Russians to go back to their own country. You are calling people who are defending their country from an invader, and their supporters, pro-war axis.

mjburgess 2y ago
There's a Russian army on that land, so its not entirely clear who would be surrendering it. I am not against Europe sending in an army if it wishes. I am not against your pro-war position which seeks, via military means, to retake land in Russia's control. I am more pointing out that you're not actually willing to do anything about it. You're not willing to take any risk to your own security. You can have whatever position you want, but a political slogan isnt a policy -- its not an argument, or a position. It's just some theatrical ploy to make yourself feel better: what is the policy you have (or anyone) to retake the land under russian control? How do you intend to end the war? Ask the school teacher to put Russia in detention? Trump is withdrawing from Ukraine, there is nothing anyone can do about that. If Europe wishes Ukraine to retain all of its land, and far fewer of its lives, it will have to risk its own security. It will not, nor will you: this is the source of the hatred for trump, it requires people of your mind to act -- and that was never on the table I'd imagine the US actions might well violate Budapest, but that was extremely watered down at the time from "gaurentees" to "assurances" so its a very weak position to start with. But in any case the world which now exists has three great powers: US, China, Russia. All three are now "pivoting to each other", and away from non-rivaling activity. If europe doesnt like this, or you don't -- I have no issue with that: go on, do something. The US is not pivoting back to the EU now, under no administration. Just as Biden retained Trump's pivot against China, the next admin (dem or rep) will retain his piovt from the EU -- since both have been the desire of every president over the last 20+ years.
- jemmyw 2y ago
  Russia isn't a great power. Their economy is hollow. They have influence and military power inherited from the Soviet Union, but they don't have the capacity to keep that going, it's been nearly entirely expended on this one jaunt in Ukraine. They have a shrinking population of 144m and have shed their best in the last 2 years. India is a greater power with much more potential energy.

hdjjhhvvhga 2y ago

> It's well known the russian elite contain a large pro-western contingent, though the public in russia is not and much more pro-war than the elite. Putin is looking at a way of returning the economic situation to a pre-war state without angering the public -- without it "all being for nothing" and so on. It would be nice if it was true. Someone else might argue that Putin just wants to extend its empire westwards as much as he is allowed to.