7 ms·
Has there been a single transformative technology that was any good 2.5 years after mainstream public buy-in?
by stuartjohnson12 2y ago
Has there been a single transformative technology that was any good 2.5 years after mainstream public buy-in?
- kylebenzle 2y agoNot sure what you mean but yeah basically everything, cars, computers, bitcoin, the internet, airplanes...
- stuartjohnson12 2y agoI was going to reply to this snarky comment with a non-snarky reply but I changed my mind, so I will instead laugh riotously at the idea that aviation worked great continuously from its inception to today.
- birdlogic 2y agoWhat year do you place “2.5 years after mainstream public buy-in” for aviation? I think you’ll find that in most periods, people with the means were paying a lot for the ability to “get there faster”, despite a bad early safety record. It did work great when it didn’t kill you, and despite that risk it was a hit (for those that could afford it).
- unaindz 2y agoI don't know if Kyle is right but "any good after mainstream public buy-in" and "worked great continuously from inception to today" is quite the goalpost move.
- rbrown 2y agoNo. I think coupling OpenAI's fortunes and the prospects of LLM-native applications is a step too far
- stuartjohnson12 2y agoIt's been less than 6 months since OpenAI last released a SOTA model architecture that promptly caused every other AI lab to scramble to copy them (o1 preview). Maybe OpenAI is running ashore, but it's too soon to tell yet.
- numpad0 2y agoMaxim HMG: Patented 1883, combat use 1886. Manhattan Project: Started 1942, combat use 1945. Solid state transistor: Invented 1954, in radios 1955. Hybrid cars, iPhone, etc etc.
- lostmsu 2y agoThis one nearly replaced Internet search already.
- recursivedogs 2y agoManhattan project was good before "public buy-in". It was a massive hit on the day of its public release in fact.