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I am not talking about that. I am referring to NATO, UN, ICC, Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable cons

I am not talking about that. I am referring to NATO, UN, ICC, Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable consequences (wrt. current allies like China and India, as they are Russia's key trade partners). So there are those deterrents: legal charges, sanctions, political pressure, military retaliation, geopolitical fallout, and internal resistance within Russia itself. Even Russian oligarchs and elites might resist, fearing total international isolation. There are many reasons to not be afraid of what we might believe Putin would do ("getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country" and so forth).

ben_w 2y ago
> I am referring to NATO NATO only applies if they go specifically for a NATO country — which is why Ukraine wants into NATO in the first place, and why the invasion of Ukraine got Finland to join in a hurry. Also this is only a risk while NATO continues to still exist, which is threatened both because Trump has explicitly said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 And: https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gulf-of-america-fa66f8d072eb39c00a8128a8941ede75 https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gul... And: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm-turnbull-calls-trumps-annexation-threat-to-canada-baffling/ https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm... But also Russia is starting to prepare for direct NATO confrontation anyway: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-pushing-russia-its-red-lines-forcing-it-respond-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-push... > UN Russia is on the permanent security council, they have a veto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_Unite... > ICC Already has arrest warrants for them, can't escalate further: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Russian_leaders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_a... > Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable consequences (wrt. current allies like China and India, they are Russia's key trade partners). None of this stopped them so far, why would it start? Especially on trade: Russia is a petrostate, their main export is fuel, the invasion of Ukraine by itself sped up the European transition away from fossil fuels in general and their fossil fuels in particular, and everyone Russia does business with — including "allies", though that's too strong a word for their relationship with India — has every reason to take advantage of the price ceiling to get discounts even when they don't explicitly take part in the actual ceiling itself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_cap_sanctions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_c... > There are many reasons to not be afraid of what we might believe Putin would do ("getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country" and so forth). Why are you ignoring the evidence that this has already happened three times? Why do you insist on treating this as a hypothetical? https://xkcd.com/242/ https://xkcd.com/242/

ben_w 2y ago

> I am referring to NATO NATO only applies if they go specifically for a NATO country — which is why Ukraine wants into NATO in the first place, and why the invasion of Ukraine got Finland to join in a hurry. Also this is only a risk while NATO continues to still exist, which is threatened both because Trump has explicitly said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 And: https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gulf-of-america-fa66f8d072eb39c00a8128a8941ede75 https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gul... And: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm-turnbull-calls-trumps-annexation-threat-to-canada-baffling/ https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm... But also Russia is starting to prepare for direct NATO confrontation anyway: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-pushing-russia-its-red-lines-forcing-it-respond-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-push... > UN Russia is on the permanent security council, they have a veto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_Unite... > ICC Already has arrest warrants for them, can't escalate further: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Russian_leaders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_a... > Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable consequences (wrt. current allies like China and India, they are Russia's key trade partners). None of this stopped them so far, why would it start? Especially on trade: Russia is a petrostate, their main export is fuel, the invasion of Ukraine by itself sped up the European transition away from fossil fuels in general and their fossil fuels in particular, and everyone Russia does business with — including "allies", though that's too strong a word for their relationship with India — has every reason to take advantage of the price ceiling to get discounts even when they don't explicitly take part in the actual ceiling itself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_cap_sanctions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_c... > There are many reasons to not be afraid of what we might believe Putin would do ("getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country" and so forth). Why are you ignoring the evidence that this has already happened three times? Why do you insist on treating this as a hypothetical? https://xkcd.com/242/ https://xkcd.com/242/