3 ms·

If DeepSeek could perform a million iterations in 1 seconds, then? I think what they should be saying is - from a software stack standpoint, current tech unloc

If DeepSeek could perform a million iterations in 1 seconds, then? I think what they should be saying is - from a software stack standpoint, current tech unlocks AGI if it can be sped up significantly. So what we’re really waiting for are more software and hardware breakthroughs that make their performance many orders of magnitude quicker.

batch12 2y ago
Im not following you. If speed is the only factor then we you're saying we already have AGI, just a slow version?
- jcgrillo 2y ago
  Speed would enable some kind of search algorithm (maybe like genetic programming). But that would probably only be useful if you have encoded your expectations in a carefully crafted test suite. Otherwise speed just seems like a recipe for more long winded broken garbage to wade through and fix.
- sheepscreek 2y ago
  AGI is effectively already here. We’ve repeatedly seen that giving AI models more time for deeper reasoning dramatically enhances their capabilities. For example, o3-mini, with extended thinking time, already approaches GPT-4.5-level performance at a fraction of the computational cost. Consider also that any advanced language model already surpasses individual human knowledge, since each model compresses and synthesizes the collective insights, wisdom, and information of human civilization. Now imagine a frontier model with agency, capable of deliberate, reflective thought: if it could spend an hour thinking, but that hour feels instantaneous to us, it would essentially match or exceed the productivity and capability of a human expert using a computer. At that point, the line between current AI capabilities and what we term AGI becomes indistinguishable. In other words: deeper reflection combined with computational speed means we’re already experiencing AGI-level performance—even if we haven’t fully acknowledged or appreciated it yet.

batch12 2y ago

Im not following you. If speed is the only factor then we you're saying we already have AGI, just a slow version?

jcgrillo 2y ago
Speed would enable some kind of search algorithm (maybe like genetic programming). But that would probably only be useful if you have encoded your expectations in a carefully crafted test suite. Otherwise speed just seems like a recipe for more long winded broken garbage to wade through and fix.
sheepscreek 2y ago
AGI is effectively already here. We’ve repeatedly seen that giving AI models more time for deeper reasoning dramatically enhances their capabilities. For example, o3-mini, with extended thinking time, already approaches GPT-4.5-level performance at a fraction of the computational cost. Consider also that any advanced language model already surpasses individual human knowledge, since each model compresses and synthesizes the collective insights, wisdom, and information of human civilization. Now imagine a frontier model with agency, capable of deliberate, reflective thought: if it could spend an hour thinking, but that hour feels instantaneous to us, it would essentially match or exceed the productivity and capability of a human expert using a computer. At that point, the line between current AI capabilities and what we term AGI becomes indistinguishable. In other words: deeper reflection combined with computational speed means we’re already experiencing AGI-level performance—even if we haven’t fully acknowledged or appreciated it yet.