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Ask the people who tried to scale the Berlin wall before the collapse of the Iron Curtain. Oh, you can't, because they're dead. Shot. Because they were on

by louthy 2y ago

Ask the people who tried to scale the Berlin wall before the collapse of the Iron Curtain. Oh, you can't, because they're dead. Shot. Because they were on the wrong side of the boundary.

johnisgood 2y ago
Well, that is people dying. I personally want less people dying, by whatever means necessary.
- corinroyal 2y ago
  Fewer
- ben_w 2y ago
  Short term, or medium term? Because short term survival means surrender, followed by the medium term getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country.
  - johnisgood 2y ago
    > getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country. Is it not just speculation? Does it have any merits? Would he do it? What makes you think that it is going to happen, that he wants to do it? Could he actually attempt to do it?
    - ben_w 2y ago
      > Is it not just speculation? Does it have any merits? Would he do it? What makes you think that it is going to happen, that he wants to do it? Could he actually attempt to do it? Having already done it three times: 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War 3. https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/20/russia-forces-ukrainians-occupied-areas-military https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/20/russia-forces-ukrainians...
      - johnisgood 2y ago
        There are a lot of things in place that prevents Putin from doing what you think he wants.
        ben_w 2y ago
        He is currently actively doing this with the Ukranian people in the regions of Ukraine he has annexed. What is currently limiting him from going further is, specifically, the armed forces of Ukraine.
        johnisgood 2y ago
        I am not talking about that. I am referring to NATO, UN, ICC, Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable consequences (wrt. current allies like China and India, as they are Russia's key trade partners). So there are those deterrents: legal charges, sanctions, political pressure, military retaliation, geopolitical fallout, and internal resistance within Russia itself. Even Russian oligarchs and elites might resist, fearing total international isolation. There are many reasons to not be afraid of what we might believe Putin would do ("getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country" and so forth).
        ben_w 2y ago
        > I am referring to NATO NATO only applies if they go specifically for a NATO country — which is why Ukraine wants into NATO in the first place, and why the invasion of Ukraine got Finland to join in a hurry. Also this is only a risk while NATO continues to still exist, which is threatened both because Trump has explicitly said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 And: https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gulf-of-america-fa66f8d072eb39c00a8128a8941ede75 https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gul... And: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm-turnbull-calls-trumps-annexation-threat-to-canada-baffling/ https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm... But also Russia is starting to prepare for direct NATO confrontation anyway: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-pushing-russia-its-red-lines-forcing-it-respond-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-push... > UN Russia is on the permanent security council, they have a veto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_Unite... > ICC Already has arrest warrants for them, can't escalate further: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Russian_leaders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_a... > Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable consequences (wrt. current allies like China and India, they are Russia's key trade partners). None of this stopped them so far, why would it start? Especially on trade: Russia is a petrostate, their main export is fuel, the invasion of Ukraine by itself sped up the European transition away from fossil fuels in general and their fossil fuels in particular, and everyone Russia does business with — including "allies", though that's too strong a word for their relationship with India — has every reason to take advantage of the price ceiling to get discounts even when they don't explicitly take part in the actual ceiling itself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_cap_sanctions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_c... > There are many reasons to not be afraid of what we might believe Putin would do ("getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country" and so forth). Why are you ignoring the evidence that this has already happened three times? Why do you insist on treating this as a hypothetical? https://xkcd.com/242/ https://xkcd.com/242/

by louthy 2y ago

Ask the people who tried to scale the Berlin wall before the collapse of the Iron Curtain. Oh, you can't, because they're dead. Shot. Because they were on the wrong side of the boundary.

johnisgood 2y ago

Well, that is people dying. I personally want less people dying, by whatever means necessary.

corinroyal 2y ago
Fewer
ben_w 2y ago
Short term, or medium term? Because short term survival means surrender, followed by the medium term getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country.
- johnisgood 2y ago
  > getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country. Is it not just speculation? Does it have any merits? Would he do it? What makes you think that it is going to happen, that he wants to do it? Could he actually attempt to do it?
  - ben_w 2y ago
    > Is it not just speculation? Does it have any merits? Would he do it? What makes you think that it is going to happen, that he wants to do it? Could he actually attempt to do it? Having already done it three times: 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War 3. https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/20/russia-forces-ukrainians-occupied-areas-military https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/20/russia-forces-ukrainians...
    - johnisgood 2y ago
      There are a lot of things in place that prevents Putin from doing what you think he wants.
      - ben_w 2y ago
        He is currently actively doing this with the Ukranian people in the regions of Ukraine he has annexed. What is currently limiting him from going further is, specifically, the armed forces of Ukraine.
        johnisgood 2y ago
        I am not talking about that. I am referring to NATO, UN, ICC, Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable consequences (wrt. current allies like China and India, as they are Russia's key trade partners). So there are those deterrents: legal charges, sanctions, political pressure, military retaliation, geopolitical fallout, and internal resistance within Russia itself. Even Russian oligarchs and elites might resist, fearing total international isolation. There are many reasons to not be afraid of what we might believe Putin would do ("getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country" and so forth).
        ben_w 2y ago
        > I am referring to NATO NATO only applies if they go specifically for a NATO country — which is why Ukraine wants into NATO in the first place, and why the invasion of Ukraine got Finland to join in a hurry. Also this is only a risk while NATO continues to still exist, which is threatened both because Trump has explicitly said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 And: https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gulf-of-america-fa66f8d072eb39c00a8128a8941ede75 https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-offshore-drilling-gul... And: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm-turnbull-calls-trumps-annexation-threat-to-canada-baffling/ https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/former-australian-pm... But also Russia is starting to prepare for direct NATO confrontation anyway: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-pushing-russia-its-red-lines-forcing-it-respond-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-west-push... > UN Russia is on the permanent security council, they have a veto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_Unite... > ICC Already has arrest warrants for them, can't escalate further: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Russian_leaders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_a... > Amnesty International & Human Rights Organizations, global backslash, fear of uncontrollable consequences (wrt. current allies like China and India, they are Russia's key trade partners). None of this stopped them so far, why would it start? Especially on trade: Russia is a petrostate, their main export is fuel, the invasion of Ukraine by itself sped up the European transition away from fossil fuels in general and their fossil fuels in particular, and everyone Russia does business with — including "allies", though that's too strong a word for their relationship with India — has every reason to take advantage of the price ceiling to get discounts even when they don't explicitly take part in the actual ceiling itself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_cap_sanctions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_crude_oil_price_c... > There are many reasons to not be afraid of what we might believe Putin would do ("getting conscripted by Putin as cannon fodder to go after the next country" and so forth). Why are you ignoring the evidence that this has already happened three times? Why do you insist on treating this as a hypothetical? https://xkcd.com/242/ https://xkcd.com/242/