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The military experts I listen to all more or less agree that the focus on territory is just wrong. It's a war of attrition unsustainable in the long run for bot

The military experts I listen to all more or less agree that the focus on territory is just wrong. It's a war of attrition unsustainable in the long run for both sides, the question is who runs out of resources first (or if there is some sort of ceasefire before that). Germany famously lost such a war a century ago without losing any territory!

cyberax 2y ago
That's correct. Territory captured is useless for Russia, but it's what Putin wants, so his generals push for it at a great expense. Ukraine is suffering 3-5 times fewer casualties than Russia, but it's also 3 times smaller than Russia.
- aparticulate 2y ago
  > The generals push for territory at great expense …by focusing on controlling sectors in mainly the East?
  - cyberax 2y ago
    Sorry? What? Russia is not gaining any strategic advances from the push. It's not a fight to get some magical prize.
- nwatson 2y ago
  Ukraine is sending troops over 26 or so years old now. They will need to dip into their prime-aged young population eventually, the 18-to-26-year-olds. That will be a hard moral choice they apparently want to avoid, but perhaps necessary.
  - slt2021 2y ago
    All these 18 year old cohort - they dont exist in Ukraine anymore, a lot of them escaped Ukraine while they were minors before reaching 18, because this issue of conscripting 18+ has been discussed for quite a while. If you look at the reports from Ukraine high schools - its all girls class, no boys
    - artem2471 2y ago
      Sorry what? Reports from Ukrainian high schools? I live in Ukraine, this is not true.
      - slt2021 2y ago
        i have no way to verify, just judging from the news headlines from what I read https://lenta.ru/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-klassy-ostalis-bez-malchikov/ https://lenta.ru/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-klassy-ostalis-b... translated: https://lenta-ru.translate.goog/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-klassy-ostalis-bez-malchikov/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://lenta-ru.translate.goog/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-k... There are almost no boys left in senior classes of Ukrainian schools. This was reported by the publication "Strana.ua" on the Telegram channel with reference to blogger Alena Yakhno. As the blogger said, the 17-year-old son of her friend studies in Kiev , but all his classmates have left. "Only girls are left in the class. There will be no moral. It's just a fact," she wrote. The publication recalled that upon reaching the age of 18, young people from Ukraine are no longer allowed to go abroad. In addition, the report notes, information about Ukrainian schoolchildren aged 16-17 leaving Ukraine en masse has appeared before. Earlier, the Verkhovna Rada reported on hundreds of thousands of schoolchildren who left the country before the start of the school year. According to MP Nina Yuzhina, about 300 thousand students, mostly high school students, left Ukraine in July and August. In addition, due to the departure of young people, 2,114 schools have been closed in Ukraine over the past four years.
        dmitriy9000 2y ago
        I don't know if original claim is true or not in general, but lenta.ru in particular is a poor source of information, it's heavily skewed into Russian-government side.
        etc-hosts 2y ago
        The media operation Strana is mentioned as the source for the lenta.ru story. Strana is sanctioned and banned by the Ukrainian government, though Ukraine government hands out a lot of media bans. It's a bummer that just about every media outlet in Ukraine is either tightly linked to Russian propaganda, or on the other side its mostly super pro Ukrainian (formerly funded by USAID) outlets with ties to weird libertarian billionaires who want to turn Ukraine into free market paradise. Hardly any middle ground.
  - enriquto 2y ago
    As a graybeard with teenage kids, this is terribly disheartening... I would rather be cannon fodder than my sons. After all, I have already reproduced and I have taught hundreds of youngsters all what I knew. I would gladly accept that my contribution to mankind is already done and gone, before seeing one of my children go to war. Is youth so important for soldiers? Wouldn't it be better to send forty and fifty year olds to the front? Anything before 18-26 youngs? It makes no sense. Are they so much more competent than any random middle-age?
    - slt2021 2y ago
      Ukraine has churned all their greybeards and middle age folks, and 18+ are the only ones not conscripted yet. (Hence Trump's comment that Ukraine is having manpower issues and has no strong cards left for negotiations)
      - actionfromafar 2y ago
        It hasn't any strong cards only because the west (which is now Europe - the US is almost at Russias side now) is trickling the weapons supply. Open the taps!
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
  - actionfromafar 2y ago
    What's the point of more recruits when the existing ones don't get enough training and adequate equipment? Ukraine needs weapons far more than it needs manpower.
mgh95 2y ago
China has been supplying Russia missing materials (semiconductors, mostly; see: https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3908561/the-growing-significance-of-china-russia-defense-cooperation/ https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications...) and permitting their citizens to serve as mercinaries (see: https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-mercenaries-killed-ukraine-1962673 https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-mercenaries-killed-ukrai...). For China, a balkanized nuclear Russia may be a greater threat than supplying them manpower (due to surplus men and civil unrest) and materiel. I would not expect Russia to run into the WW1 germany problem.
- XorNot 2y ago
  There's no evidence of a substantial number of Chinese nationals serving in the Russian military, rather then just a few notable examples. The largest foreign troop commitment by state-sanction was the North Koreans, which were about ~10,000 strong and have since been withdrawn (after heavy losses).
  - mgh95 2y ago
    Yes, and the point I'm making is that (1) Chinese nationals have served, indicating that Beijing at least tacitly approves mercenary actions and (2) China can increase deployment if needed by either economic or prisoner release coercion. This is a meatgrinder conflict. If China can reduce its dissident or potentially rebellious population while avoiding a collapse of Russia mirroring WW1 Germany, they may very well (and I would argue are likely) do so.
    - XorNot 2y ago
      That doesn't follow: Ukraine has the international legion (probably about 3,500 people in country last I checked) and a number of Russian groups fighting on behalf of Ukraine. The only thing Chinese nationals fighting for Russia tells us is that China is not expressly limiting freedom of movement to do so...but there has also been at least 1 American who tried to join Russia to fight Ukraine (and was tortured to death by the Russians on suspicion of being a spy for his trouble).
Nimitz14 2y ago
Which military experts? If you listen to actually knowledgeable people like Kofman it's been known forever that 2024 would be (and as we now are seeing from Russia being pushed back) Russia's peak. Russia is out of equipment and is starting to get similar problems with manpower. In the meantime Europe's investments are starting to pay off and allow Ukraine to pull ahead in 2025.
- gizmondo 2y ago
  Kofman among others. He has been saying for a while that "the war is on a negative trajectory for Ukraine", i.e. they are currently losing, no?
mtmail 2y ago
> Germany famously lost such a war a century ago without losing any territory It helped that the ww1 western front wasn't inside Germany http://www.greatwar.co.uk/places/ww1-western-front.htm http://www.greatwar.co.uk/places/ww1-western-front.htm

cyberax 2y ago

That's correct. Territory captured is useless for Russia, but it's what Putin wants, so his generals push for it at a great expense. Ukraine is suffering 3-5 times fewer casualties than Russia, but it's also 3 times smaller than Russia.

aparticulate 2y ago
> The generals push for territory at great expense …by focusing on controlling sectors in mainly the East?
- cyberax 2y ago
  Sorry? What? Russia is not gaining any strategic advances from the push. It's not a fight to get some magical prize.
nwatson 2y ago
Ukraine is sending troops over 26 or so years old now. They will need to dip into their prime-aged young population eventually, the 18-to-26-year-olds. That will be a hard moral choice they apparently want to avoid, but perhaps necessary.
- slt2021 2y ago
  All these 18 year old cohort - they dont exist in Ukraine anymore, a lot of them escaped Ukraine while they were minors before reaching 18, because this issue of conscripting 18+ has been discussed for quite a while. If you look at the reports from Ukraine high schools - its all girls class, no boys
  - artem2471 2y ago
    Sorry what? Reports from Ukrainian high schools? I live in Ukraine, this is not true.
    - slt2021 2y ago
      i have no way to verify, just judging from the news headlines from what I read https://lenta.ru/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-klassy-ostalis-bez-malchikov/ https://lenta.ru/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-klassy-ostalis-b... translated: https://lenta-ru.translate.goog/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-klassy-ostalis-bez-malchikov/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://lenta-ru.translate.goog/news/2025/02/16/ukrainskie-k... There are almost no boys left in senior classes of Ukrainian schools. This was reported by the publication "Strana.ua" on the Telegram channel with reference to blogger Alena Yakhno. As the blogger said, the 17-year-old son of her friend studies in Kiev , but all his classmates have left. "Only girls are left in the class. There will be no moral. It's just a fact," she wrote. The publication recalled that upon reaching the age of 18, young people from Ukraine are no longer allowed to go abroad. In addition, the report notes, information about Ukrainian schoolchildren aged 16-17 leaving Ukraine en masse has appeared before. Earlier, the Verkhovna Rada reported on hundreds of thousands of schoolchildren who left the country before the start of the school year. According to MP Nina Yuzhina, about 300 thousand students, mostly high school students, left Ukraine in July and August. In addition, due to the departure of young people, 2,114 schools have been closed in Ukraine over the past four years.
      - dmitriy9000 2y ago
        I don't know if original claim is true or not in general, but lenta.ru in particular is a poor source of information, it's heavily skewed into Russian-government side.
        etc-hosts 2y ago
        The media operation Strana is mentioned as the source for the lenta.ru story. Strana is sanctioned and banned by the Ukrainian government, though Ukraine government hands out a lot of media bans. It's a bummer that just about every media outlet in Ukraine is either tightly linked to Russian propaganda, or on the other side its mostly super pro Ukrainian (formerly funded by USAID) outlets with ties to weird libertarian billionaires who want to turn Ukraine into free market paradise. Hardly any middle ground.
- enriquto 2y ago
  As a graybeard with teenage kids, this is terribly disheartening... I would rather be cannon fodder than my sons. After all, I have already reproduced and I have taught hundreds of youngsters all what I knew. I would gladly accept that my contribution to mankind is already done and gone, before seeing one of my children go to war. Is youth so important for soldiers? Wouldn't it be better to send forty and fifty year olds to the front? Anything before 18-26 youngs? It makes no sense. Are they so much more competent than any random middle-age?
  - slt2021 2y ago
    Ukraine has churned all their greybeards and middle age folks, and 18+ are the only ones not conscripted yet. (Hence Trump's comment that Ukraine is having manpower issues and has no strong cards left for negotiations)
    - actionfromafar 2y ago
      It hasn't any strong cards only because the west (which is now Europe - the US is almost at Russias side now) is trickling the weapons supply. Open the taps!
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- actionfromafar 2y ago
  What's the point of more recruits when the existing ones don't get enough training and adequate equipment? Ukraine needs weapons far more than it needs manpower.

mgh95 2y ago

China has been supplying Russia missing materials (semiconductors, mostly; see: https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3908561/the-growing-significance-of-china-russia-defense-cooperation/ https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications...) and permitting their citizens to serve as mercinaries (see: https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-mercenaries-killed-ukraine-1962673 https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-mercenaries-killed-ukrai...). For China, a balkanized nuclear Russia may be a greater threat than supplying them manpower (due to surplus men and civil unrest) and materiel. I would not expect Russia to run into the WW1 germany problem.

XorNot 2y ago
There's no evidence of a substantial number of Chinese nationals serving in the Russian military, rather then just a few notable examples. The largest foreign troop commitment by state-sanction was the North Koreans, which were about ~10,000 strong and have since been withdrawn (after heavy losses).
- mgh95 2y ago
  Yes, and the point I'm making is that (1) Chinese nationals have served, indicating that Beijing at least tacitly approves mercenary actions and (2) China can increase deployment if needed by either economic or prisoner release coercion. This is a meatgrinder conflict. If China can reduce its dissident or potentially rebellious population while avoiding a collapse of Russia mirroring WW1 Germany, they may very well (and I would argue are likely) do so.
  - XorNot 2y ago
    That doesn't follow: Ukraine has the international legion (probably about 3,500 people in country last I checked) and a number of Russian groups fighting on behalf of Ukraine. The only thing Chinese nationals fighting for Russia tells us is that China is not expressly limiting freedom of movement to do so...but there has also been at least 1 American who tried to join Russia to fight Ukraine (and was tortured to death by the Russians on suspicion of being a spy for his trouble).

Nimitz14 2y ago

Which military experts? If you listen to actually knowledgeable people like Kofman it's been known forever that 2024 would be (and as we now are seeing from Russia being pushed back) Russia's peak. Russia is out of equipment and is starting to get similar problems with manpower. In the meantime Europe's investments are starting to pay off and allow Ukraine to pull ahead in 2025.

gizmondo 2y ago
Kofman among others. He has been saying for a while that "the war is on a negative trajectory for Ukraine", i.e. they are currently losing, no?

mtmail 2y ago

> Germany famously lost such a war a century ago without losing any territory It helped that the ww1 western front wasn't inside Germany http://www.greatwar.co.uk/places/ww1-western-front.htm http://www.greatwar.co.uk/places/ww1-western-front.htm