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Most countries definitely do not have nukes. There are a handful that could have them in secret, or that maintain the materials to make them immediately if need

Most countries definitely do not have nukes. There are a handful that could have them in secret, or that maintain the materials to make them immediately if needed. But all of those combined would amount to no more than a few dozen, small, nuclear weapons. There are not a thousand Tsar Bomba size nukes secreted away. If the US and Russia stood down and the rest of the world let loose all of their nukes, it would be insufficient to cause sufficient damage to the technological integrity of our species such that backyard solar manufacture becomes viable.

lukan 2y ago
"Most countries definitely do not have nukes." I did not claim that. I claim it will be hard to limit the use of nuclear weapons. Just like in the weapons itself, one ignition can trigger a chain reaction in the end forcing russia or US to take part in it as well. If all the people involved are level headed and able to think rational - it likely will prevented also in the future. But if the person in charge is already stressed (and old) and gets lots of pressure - this person, might then feel forced to press a button.
- margalabargala 2y ago
  You said "I assume much more countries secretly have nukes". I claim that beyond the open secret that is Israel, the number of countries controlling a right-now detonatable nuclear weapon who are not on the Wikipedia list of "countries with nukes" is less than 5.
  - lukan 2y ago
    Claiming much more countries secretly have one, is not at all the same as claiming most countries secretly have them. And I agree that it won't be many many, but in this context one previously unknown bomb already might change lots of geopolitical equations and their outcome.
    - margalabargala 2y ago
      No one ever said most. You said much more. I think it's fewer than 5.
      - lukan 2y ago
        "No one ever said most." "Most countries definitely do not have nukes. " https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43209283 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43209283 Also by my understanding, even 4 more countries having secretly nukes counts as "much more countries having nukes than officially known". But my point is not semantics, but that even one nuke can trigger a chain reaction. Unknown nukes just makes this more likely.
        margalabargala 2y ago
        Are you illiterate? You think that's what "most" meant in context?

lukan 2y ago

"Most countries definitely do not have nukes." I did not claim that. I claim it will be hard to limit the use of nuclear weapons. Just like in the weapons itself, one ignition can trigger a chain reaction in the end forcing russia or US to take part in it as well. If all the people involved are level headed and able to think rational - it likely will prevented also in the future. But if the person in charge is already stressed (and old) and gets lots of pressure - this person, might then feel forced to press a button.

margalabargala 2y ago
You said "I assume much more countries secretly have nukes". I claim that beyond the open secret that is Israel, the number of countries controlling a right-now detonatable nuclear weapon who are not on the Wikipedia list of "countries with nukes" is less than 5.
- lukan 2y ago
  Claiming much more countries secretly have one, is not at all the same as claiming most countries secretly have them. And I agree that it won't be many many, but in this context one previously unknown bomb already might change lots of geopolitical equations and their outcome.
  - margalabargala 2y ago
    No one ever said most. You said much more. I think it's fewer than 5.
    - lukan 2y ago
      "No one ever said most." "Most countries definitely do not have nukes. " https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43209283 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43209283 Also by my understanding, even 4 more countries having secretly nukes counts as "much more countries having nukes than officially known". But my point is not semantics, but that even one nuke can trigger a chain reaction. Unknown nukes just makes this more likely.
      - margalabargala 2y ago
        Are you illiterate? You think that's what "most" meant in context?