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The bitcoin transactions are scarce, just like the bitcoin itself. Hard limited to ~7/sec max. It's impossible for the fees not to grow with demand for transact

by npoc 2y ago

The bitcoin transactions are scarce, just like the bitcoin itself. Hard limited to ~7/sec max. It's impossible for the fees not to grow with demand for transactions - in fact other than possible optimisations of the transaction data size there's a direct relationship between demand and transaction fee. With bitcoin optimised for storing large amounts of value, there's a lot of room for fees to increase as adoption and the value of transactions increase. Even $50 is extremely cheap for storing $100,000k worth of value losslessly for 10 years and transferring it around the world in about 10-30 mins with final settlement. Impossible to do that at the moment without gambling/lending your money to an index fund - and more and more companies in those index funds are storing their value in bitcoin due to it being an ideal store of value, optimised for large amounts for large amounts of time.

munksbeer 2y ago
$100,000k is $100m. Is that what you meant? $100m bitcoin might be worth $1m in 10 years, or zero, or $10bn. I don't think that qualifies as "losslessly".
- npoc 2y ago
  You're right, I meant $100k Regarding losslessly - I'm referring to the point at which the market for bitcoin is largely saturated (in a few decades?). At this point the price per bitcoin will be at least $10M/BTC in today's dollars and will have stabilised - the current volatility comes from its fast growth. Until then you're looking at a CAGR of at least 40% over the next couple of decades if you are willing to hold it for at least 4 years (historically the wavelength of the macro volatility, but this period will reduce as the market matures) . It's hard to imagine but it is still so early in it's growth curve - comparable to the internet in 1990. In the last 12 months the pipelines have been opened to institutional money and US is even discussing the idea of a national reserve, even though Trump is yet to see the difference between bitcoin and crip-toe which are poles apart in terms of usefulness. One is going to $infinity, the other desperately clinging to it's coattails like a parasite, to zero.

by npoc 2y ago

munksbeer 2y ago

$100,000k is $100m. Is that what you meant? $100m bitcoin might be worth $1m in 10 years, or zero, or $10bn. I don't think that qualifies as "losslessly".

npoc 2y ago
You're right, I meant $100k Regarding losslessly - I'm referring to the point at which the market for bitcoin is largely saturated (in a few decades?). At this point the price per bitcoin will be at least $10M/BTC in today's dollars and will have stabilised - the current volatility comes from its fast growth. Until then you're looking at a CAGR of at least 40% over the next couple of decades if you are willing to hold it for at least 4 years (historically the wavelength of the macro volatility, but this period will reduce as the market matures) . It's hard to imagine but it is still so early in it's growth curve - comparable to the internet in 1990. In the last 12 months the pipelines have been opened to institutional money and US is even discussing the idea of a national reserve, even though Trump is yet to see the difference between bitcoin and crip-toe which are poles apart in terms of usefulness. One is going to $infinity, the other desperately clinging to it's coattails like a parasite, to zero.