He didn't completely whiff it? The probabilities that Nate and the current team at 538 have given over the years are empirically very accurate. 538 is quite tra

He didn't completely whiff it? The probabilities that Nate and the current team at 538 have given over the years are empirically very accurate. 538 is quite transparent about this stuff [1]. Their Brier skill score for Presidential elections is 0.8243. [1]: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/