4 ms·

I don't expect bikes to take market share from cars. Bikes have been around for a long time and are expected to technically stay the same in the foreseeable fu

by mg 2y ago

I don't expect bikes to take market share from cars. Bikes have been around for a long time and are expected to technically stay the same in the foreseeable future. Electric buses are so much better than gasoline buses. Fewer vibrations, less noise. Makes it much more suitable to relax or do some work on your phone. Plus, the cost (manufacturing+maintenance+fuel) of electric buses is 25% lower than the cost of gasoline buses. At the moment, only 10% or so of buses are electric. So the effect of these two improvements are mostly still to hit the market. And in a few years, buses will start to become autonomous. Which reduces the costs of a bus operation by 70%. Imagine we get autonomous electric buses with nice seats and tables. Then you can do your work in a bus while getting from A to B super cheap. Mobility would be so different.

seszett 2y ago
> Bikes have been around for a long time and are expected to technically stay the same in the foreseeable future. You might have missed the electric bike revolution that started a few years ago? Probably half the bikes I see here (in Flanders) are electric. It has enabled many people who would never have considered it before to start biking. And bikes are absolutely taking market share from cars here. Honestly I don't even understand why enough people still use their cars through my city instead of biking. It easily takes 2x or 3x the time to get anywhere.
- EndShell 2y ago
  > Honestly I don't even understand why enough people still use their cars through my city instead of biking. I am an ex-avid cyclist. Bikes are easily stolen, You can get soaked if the weather is poor, If it is bitterly cold it can literally take you hours to warm up (especially if you are older). If you have to ride in traffic it can be very frightening especially if you haven't done it before. Other people find cycling simply uncomfortable, I've been told it more uncomfortable for women.
  - roflmaostc 2y ago
    I use a decent U lock. Always lock the frame to something metal and solid. Additionally I have a ~100USD insurance to cover my several thousand dollars bikes. Never got stolen any. Yeah you need to adapt to weather. But a good pair of biking pants, rain cover for the shoes, thick leather gloves and different pairs of coats (which you anyway need) usually do the job. If your bike is super uncomfortable there is tons of different sattles and options. Even bike fitting to fit your bike perfectly to your body.
    - EndShell 2y ago
      Not to be rude. You think I am not aware of all of this? I was an avid cyclist. I have repaired and built my own bikes for the last 25 years, I still look after my bikes even though I don't ride them as often as I used to. > I use a decent U lock. Always lock the frame to something metal and solid. Additionally I have a ~100USD insurance to cover my several thousand dollars bikes. Never got stolen any. You are lucky. I've had two bikes stolen. I ride a very old and battered looking mountain bike (Marin Hawk Hill 97). My anti-theft measure is that it isn't worth stealing. > If your bike is super uncomfortable there is tons of different sattles and options. Even bike fitting to fit your bike perfectly to your body. If you haven't cycled in years it is just painful on backside and your nether regions. I hadn't cycled in over a year and I was saddle sore for about two days afterwards. I was expecting it btw. The bikes I have fit me perfectly, I use a good saddle (roll). Generally people buy the cheapest POS bike from a store, the fitting probably isn't right or they just get their friends bike that they no longer want and put up with it until they can afford a car. They aren't going to a proper bike shop to get fitted up.
  - seszett 2y ago
    Well we're in different places so I guess it's different. I used to bike in France and I got about three or four bikes stolen there, one every other year or so. At around 30-50€ per bike it's not that expensive even though it's certainly inconvenient. Now my bikes don't get stolen anymore in Flanders (even though I use a much cheaper and more convenient frame lock). About the weather, I just wear warm clothes. I'm about ten minutes away from my children's school, not 2 hours. It rarely gets lower than -5°C though (23°F). It also works because we have decent cycling infrastructure so cars don't kill too many cyclists. I'm not an avid cyclist or an avid automobilist but I sometimes have to drive the same route by car and I have never wished I was in a car rather than in a bike including under rain, while the other way around is almost every time.
- mongol 2y ago
  Agree with all of the above. Electric bikes are a game changer. It takes away most of the strain and effort from cycling, making it as convenient as walking. You still have to deal with weather, traffic, theft and so on, but it is still an excellent option for many transport needs.
seer 2y ago
It is not about the bikes themselves, but building the city to promote one transport mode against another. If your city has nice green public spaces linked by bike lanes, and has a good “human” level of density where most of the stuff you actually want to go to are reachable in less than an hour of cycling, people will naturally gravitate towards that, since biking in green spaces is usually enjoyable in and of itself. Paradoxically this makes driving nicer as well, since it frees up traffic for car enthusiasts. When I was living in Sofia (Bulgaria) I used to bike a lot, just because it is nice. And I did own a car and used it frequently. But my commute / grocery run / recreation was usually done by cycle.
- EndShell 2y ago
  The biggest issue with cycling (I used to cycle everyday, no longer): * Theft. I have to carry a lock and cable (for the front wheel). These are heavy and get dirty. * Storage. I have to haul my mountain bike up and down the stairs in my apartment. Additionally I can't put the bike on my right shoulder and I cannot carry things on my left as it "feels wrong". So the whole process is a PITA. * Being run over and accidents. I've been hit by cars hard enough twice to send me in and out of hospital for months. I had other less minor collisions with cars. I do not like cycle lanes either because there is even more chances of collision (read below). * I am also normally dodging people's dogs and/or children while on a cycle even on the "cycle" lanes. This makes any cycle frustrating. * Cycling has intertwined itself with the insufferable green crowd. I used to enjoy cycling for the act itself, I am not naive enough to think I am saving the planet.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - dudefeliciano 2y ago
    > Cycling has intertwined itself with the insufferable green crowd Is that so? The insufferable green crowd is also pro public transportation, is that a reason to have an issue with trains?
    - 2y ago
sebazzz 2y ago
> I don't expect bikes to take market share from cars. Not in a society that is car-centric. But in countries that optimize for different types of transport, it is quite busy with bikes. Every commuter bike would have been a car otherwise - so also taking much more space.
xalava 2y ago
Bikes have already taken market shares from cars in large European cities such as Amsterdam [0] or Paris [1]. They may be a superior technology for most urban commutes: faster, requiring less space on roads and for parking, and more enjoyable [2]. Buses are subsidized. In cities with subways, they are used primarily to accommodate people with limited mobility or to cover rare routes. Between cities, they remain the cheapest option. Therefore, I'm not sure that cost is an important factor. [0] https://inkspire.org/post/amsterdam-was-a-car-loving-city-in-the-1970s-what-changed/ https://inkspire.org/post/amsterdam-was-a-car-loving-city-in... [1] https://www.paris.fr/en/pages/bicycles-outperform-cars-in-paris-and-its-inner-suburbs-by-far-28354 https://www.paris.fr/en/pages/bicycles-outperform-cars-in-pa... [2] https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2018/04/06/cycling-facts https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2018/04/...
Gasp0de 2y ago
I have an ebike and a trailer, and it absolutely removed my need for a car. My neighbors are a family of 6, and an electric cargo bike allows them to live without a second car.
rsynnott 2y ago
> Bikes have been around for a long time and are expected to technically stay the same in the foreseeable future. Probably half the urban bikes I see now are (mostly cheap) electric ones. There's also a question of infrastructure; many cities have made great improvements in bike lanes over the last few decades. > Electric buses are so much better than gasoline buses. Fewer vibrations, less noise. Also faster takeoff, which is quite important (urban bus routes are typically very stop-start-y). > And in a few years, buses will start to become autonomous. I have doubts. (Buses are very big and heavy, and other road users tend to behave badly around them; they're a near-worst-case for automation. You might get away with it on a mostly-segregated BRT line, but not a conventional bus route.)

by mg 2y ago

seszett 2y ago

> Bikes have been around for a long time and are expected to technically stay the same in the foreseeable future. You might have missed the electric bike revolution that started a few years ago? Probably half the bikes I see here (in Flanders) are electric. It has enabled many people who would never have considered it before to start biking. And bikes are absolutely taking market share from cars here. Honestly I don't even understand why enough people still use their cars through my city instead of biking. It easily takes 2x or 3x the time to get anywhere.

EndShell 2y ago
> Honestly I don't even understand why enough people still use their cars through my city instead of biking. I am an ex-avid cyclist. Bikes are easily stolen, You can get soaked if the weather is poor, If it is bitterly cold it can literally take you hours to warm up (especially if you are older). If you have to ride in traffic it can be very frightening especially if you haven't done it before. Other people find cycling simply uncomfortable, I've been told it more uncomfortable for women.
- roflmaostc 2y ago
  I use a decent U lock. Always lock the frame to something metal and solid. Additionally I have a ~100USD insurance to cover my several thousand dollars bikes. Never got stolen any. Yeah you need to adapt to weather. But a good pair of biking pants, rain cover for the shoes, thick leather gloves and different pairs of coats (which you anyway need) usually do the job. If your bike is super uncomfortable there is tons of different sattles and options. Even bike fitting to fit your bike perfectly to your body.
  - EndShell 2y ago
    Not to be rude. You think I am not aware of all of this? I was an avid cyclist. I have repaired and built my own bikes for the last 25 years, I still look after my bikes even though I don't ride them as often as I used to. > I use a decent U lock. Always lock the frame to something metal and solid. Additionally I have a ~100USD insurance to cover my several thousand dollars bikes. Never got stolen any. You are lucky. I've had two bikes stolen. I ride a very old and battered looking mountain bike (Marin Hawk Hill 97). My anti-theft measure is that it isn't worth stealing. > If your bike is super uncomfortable there is tons of different sattles and options. Even bike fitting to fit your bike perfectly to your body. If you haven't cycled in years it is just painful on backside and your nether regions. I hadn't cycled in over a year and I was saddle sore for about two days afterwards. I was expecting it btw. The bikes I have fit me perfectly, I use a good saddle (roll). Generally people buy the cheapest POS bike from a store, the fitting probably isn't right or they just get their friends bike that they no longer want and put up with it until they can afford a car. They aren't going to a proper bike shop to get fitted up.
- seszett 2y ago
  Well we're in different places so I guess it's different. I used to bike in France and I got about three or four bikes stolen there, one every other year or so. At around 30-50€ per bike it's not that expensive even though it's certainly inconvenient. Now my bikes don't get stolen anymore in Flanders (even though I use a much cheaper and more convenient frame lock). About the weather, I just wear warm clothes. I'm about ten minutes away from my children's school, not 2 hours. It rarely gets lower than -5°C though (23°F). It also works because we have decent cycling infrastructure so cars don't kill too many cyclists. I'm not an avid cyclist or an avid automobilist but I sometimes have to drive the same route by car and I have never wished I was in a car rather than in a bike including under rain, while the other way around is almost every time.
mongol 2y ago
Agree with all of the above. Electric bikes are a game changer. It takes away most of the strain and effort from cycling, making it as convenient as walking. You still have to deal with weather, traffic, theft and so on, but it is still an excellent option for many transport needs.

seer 2y ago

It is not about the bikes themselves, but building the city to promote one transport mode against another. If your city has nice green public spaces linked by bike lanes, and has a good “human” level of density where most of the stuff you actually want to go to are reachable in less than an hour of cycling, people will naturally gravitate towards that, since biking in green spaces is usually enjoyable in and of itself. Paradoxically this makes driving nicer as well, since it frees up traffic for car enthusiasts. When I was living in Sofia (Bulgaria) I used to bike a lot, just because it is nice. And I did own a car and used it frequently. But my commute / grocery run / recreation was usually done by cycle.

EndShell 2y ago
The biggest issue with cycling (I used to cycle everyday, no longer): * Theft. I have to carry a lock and cable (for the front wheel). These are heavy and get dirty. * Storage. I have to haul my mountain bike up and down the stairs in my apartment. Additionally I can't put the bike on my right shoulder and I cannot carry things on my left as it "feels wrong". So the whole process is a PITA. * Being run over and accidents. I've been hit by cars hard enough twice to send me in and out of hospital for months. I had other less minor collisions with cars. I do not like cycle lanes either because there is even more chances of collision (read below). * I am also normally dodging people's dogs and/or children while on a cycle even on the "cycle" lanes. This makes any cycle frustrating. * Cycling has intertwined itself with the insufferable green crowd. I used to enjoy cycling for the act itself, I am not naive enough to think I am saving the planet.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- dudefeliciano 2y ago
  > Cycling has intertwined itself with the insufferable green crowd Is that so? The insufferable green crowd is also pro public transportation, is that a reason to have an issue with trains?
  - 2y ago

sebazzz 2y ago

> I don't expect bikes to take market share from cars. Not in a society that is car-centric. But in countries that optimize for different types of transport, it is quite busy with bikes. Every commuter bike would have been a car otherwise - so also taking much more space.

xalava 2y ago

Bikes have already taken market shares from cars in large European cities such as Amsterdam [0] or Paris [1]. They may be a superior technology for most urban commutes: faster, requiring less space on roads and for parking, and more enjoyable [2]. Buses are subsidized. In cities with subways, they are used primarily to accommodate people with limited mobility or to cover rare routes. Between cities, they remain the cheapest option. Therefore, I'm not sure that cost is an important factor. [0] https://inkspire.org/post/amsterdam-was-a-car-loving-city-in-the-1970s-what-changed/ https://inkspire.org/post/amsterdam-was-a-car-loving-city-in... [1] https://www.paris.fr/en/pages/bicycles-outperform-cars-in-paris-and-its-inner-suburbs-by-far-28354 https://www.paris.fr/en/pages/bicycles-outperform-cars-in-pa... [2] https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2018/04/06/cycling-facts https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2018/04/...

Gasp0de 2y ago

I have an ebike and a trailer, and it absolutely removed my need for a car. My neighbors are a family of 6, and an electric cargo bike allows them to live without a second car.

rsynnott 2y ago

> Bikes have been around for a long time and are expected to technically stay the same in the foreseeable future. Probably half the urban bikes I see now are (mostly cheap) electric ones. There's also a question of infrastructure; many cities have made great improvements in bike lanes over the last few decades. > Electric buses are so much better than gasoline buses. Fewer vibrations, less noise. Also faster takeoff, which is quite important (urban bus routes are typically very stop-start-y). > And in a few years, buses will start to become autonomous. I have doubts. (Buses are very big and heavy, and other road users tend to behave badly around them; they're a near-worst-case for automation. You might get away with it on a mostly-segregated BRT line, but not a conventional bus route.)