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Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medical practices of all kinds have consolidated into big regional networks that are interconnected. Many of them have cash flow challenges and the fucking around with Medicare/medicaid will drive some to insolvency. My one friend in the space is planning on 30% rif in some scenarios. Be smart. Heads down at work and start unwinding your long positions and increasing cash holdings.

lukev 2y ago
Just curious, what kind of Elon scandal do you think could move the needle at this point? Anyone capable and willing to observe his behavior has probably already acted on it. What lines are left to cross?
- hedora 2y ago
  He could fall out of favor with Trump, or the market could conclude that Tesla’s being sacrificed at the altar in exchange for pork barrel spending on spacex and twitter.
- happymellon 2y ago
  The needle has moved. https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-status-as-shares-tank https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-statu... Stock is dropping, sales are falling, Elon is losing money with his antics. [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] It may not be obvious to you, but the protests are emboldening people. https://electrek.co/2025/02/24/tesla-protests-gain-momentu-while-the-hate-is-spreading-tesla-owners/ https://electrek.co/2025/02/24/tesla-protests-gain-momentu-w... Not sure where you are, but here in the UK sales might not have dropped as much as other European countries but there are definitely less Tesla's around, and the conversation is towards other EV makers because people don't want to fund him.
  - dumbledoren 2y ago
    Except all the stocks are crashing. Not just Tesla.
    - happymellon 2y ago
      IBM hasn't. Apple hasn't. Meta is still up on the month. What are "all stocks"?
      - dumbledoren 2y ago
        And by today they are...
        happymellon 2y ago
        IBM is still up on the month, and the 3 month. Apple is still up on the month and the 3 month. Apple may have dropped a bit, and I note that IBM still haven't dropped at all, but Tesla are down 25% on the month and down 15% on the 3 month. Tesla are still performing far worse than anyone else by a wide margin by being below their previous position. Unless by everyone crashing you mean up?
        dumbledoren 2y ago
        "Still up" means 'holding', and that confirms my argument. And you pulled only 2 stocks out of that many you mentioned at the start. No worries, they will likely take a nose dive in the coming months.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    > [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] Yes, but also that only takes the price back to early November, i.e. undoes the bubble from people thinking Trump affiliation would help. Even after that, on the basis of the P/E ratio, I wouldn't be surprised by the share price dropping 90% from today, i.e. hovering around a price of $29/share. That needle may yet move, but it's too soon to tell. I'd expect Musk to have an explict falling out with Trump first, not merely the current state of Trump having no interest in supporting EVs.
- wodenokoto 2y ago
  I think it is a good point, but the guy can still get a heart attack.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- Spooky23 2y ago
  The markets haven’t digested the real state of affairs at the company. Tesla is worth $30/share. It’s valued based on the Elon cult of personality. That’s already weakening — two years ago my previous post would have been brigaded into oblivion by Elon fans. He’s the henchman of the most powerful man in earth at the moment, who’s infamous for betraying his henchman. There’s no bottom - literally anything could happen at any time.
YZF 2y ago
It's really hard to time selling and buying back even if you're right and a crash is imminent. On the other hand, other than the great depression, most crashes recover fairly quickly (a few years). If you're invested for the long term then likely moving to cash is the losing move. Cash also loses to inflation. My take is make a few adjustments on the margins to make your gut happier. If you scored you're a little ahead of the index. If you messed up you're not far behind.
rightbyte 2y ago
> the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) How bad is that compared to baseline? I mean in theory all new sold houses should be sold at 100% market value to the highest bidder, and thus unsellable at 100% of the price right away.
Havoc 2y ago
NVIDIA has a massive backlog of datacenter orders. Don’t think they’re in any immediate danger of collapse
- iszomer 2y ago
  Not unless their supply chain fucks up.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  backlog orders esp ones with long waits, can be cancelled. if a few other orgs make the same decision that Microsoft did -- no more AI data centers -- then their growth looks shakey

lukev 2y ago

Just curious, what kind of Elon scandal do you think could move the needle at this point? Anyone capable and willing to observe his behavior has probably already acted on it. What lines are left to cross?

hedora 2y ago
He could fall out of favor with Trump, or the market could conclude that Tesla’s being sacrificed at the altar in exchange for pork barrel spending on spacex and twitter.
happymellon 2y ago
The needle has moved. https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-status-as-shares-tank https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-statu... Stock is dropping, sales are falling, Elon is losing money with his antics. [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] It may not be obvious to you, but the protests are emboldening people. https://electrek.co/2025/02/24/tesla-protests-gain-momentu-while-the-hate-is-spreading-tesla-owners/ https://electrek.co/2025/02/24/tesla-protests-gain-momentu-w... Not sure where you are, but here in the UK sales might not have dropped as much as other European countries but there are definitely less Tesla's around, and the conversation is towards other EV makers because people don't want to fund him.
- dumbledoren 2y ago
  Except all the stocks are crashing. Not just Tesla.
  - happymellon 2y ago
    IBM hasn't. Apple hasn't. Meta is still up on the month. What are "all stocks"?
    - dumbledoren 2y ago
      And by today they are...
      - happymellon 2y ago
        IBM is still up on the month, and the 3 month. Apple is still up on the month and the 3 month. Apple may have dropped a bit, and I note that IBM still haven't dropped at all, but Tesla are down 25% on the month and down 15% on the 3 month. Tesla are still performing far worse than anyone else by a wide margin by being below their previous position. Unless by everyone crashing you mean up?
        dumbledoren 2y ago
        "Still up" means 'holding', and that confirms my argument. And you pulled only 2 stocks out of that many you mentioned at the start. No worries, they will likely take a nose dive in the coming months.
- ben_w 2y ago
  > [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] Yes, but also that only takes the price back to early November, i.e. undoes the bubble from people thinking Trump affiliation would help. Even after that, on the basis of the P/E ratio, I wouldn't be surprised by the share price dropping 90% from today, i.e. hovering around a price of $29/share. That needle may yet move, but it's too soon to tell. I'd expect Musk to have an explict falling out with Trump first, not merely the current state of Trump having no interest in supporting EVs.
wodenokoto 2y ago
I think it is a good point, but the guy can still get a heart attack.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
Spooky23 2y ago
The markets haven’t digested the real state of affairs at the company. Tesla is worth $30/share. It’s valued based on the Elon cult of personality. That’s already weakening — two years ago my previous post would have been brigaded into oblivion by Elon fans. He’s the henchman of the most powerful man in earth at the moment, who’s infamous for betraying his henchman. There’s no bottom - literally anything could happen at any time.

YZF 2y ago

It's really hard to time selling and buying back even if you're right and a crash is imminent. On the other hand, other than the great depression, most crashes recover fairly quickly (a few years). If you're invested for the long term then likely moving to cash is the losing move. Cash also loses to inflation. My take is make a few adjustments on the margins to make your gut happier. If you scored you're a little ahead of the index. If you messed up you're not far behind.

rightbyte 2y ago

> the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) How bad is that compared to baseline? I mean in theory all new sold houses should be sold at 100% market value to the highest bidder, and thus unsellable at 100% of the price right away.

Havoc 2y ago

NVIDIA has a massive backlog of datacenter orders. Don’t think they’re in any immediate danger of collapse

iszomer 2y ago
Not unless their supply chain fucks up.
red-iron-pine 2y ago
backlog orders esp ones with long waits, can be cancelled. if a few other orgs make the same decision that Microsoft did -- no more AI data centers -- then their growth looks shakey