3 ms·

Elon Musk and Spiky Intelligence

18 points by robinhouston 2y ago

rayiner 2y ago
Nate Silver’s only job is election prediction and he just completely whiffed it. Musk has been killing it in EVs and space and does everything else as a side hustle.
- verdverm 2y ago
  Musk seems to have a drug and social media addiction, I'm not sure he is actually well
- sjsdaiuasgdia 2y ago
  > killing it in EVs Have you seen the Cybertruck, the Tesla that Musk had the most direct input in designing? Have you read of its quality control issues? Have you seen the myriad pictures and videos of Cybertrucks stuck in the snow, in the mud, in the sand? Have you seen the struts that are woefully undersized for a vehicle of such weight, and the snapped off wheels that have resulted from this? The self-cracking windshields, and the windshield wiper's laughable design that breaks frequently? I could go on... Musk is not necessarily stupid but he does appear to think he's quite a lot smarter than he actually is, and in far more domains than he actually has expertise.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Musk has been killing it in EVs This is a good example of Silver’s argument. Tesla’s EV production is the best in the West. Yet sales and values are plunging across it because of his politics [1][2]. (Meanwhile, his distraction in the Cybertruck gave BYD and other Chinese brands the opening they needed outside it, and that’s before round two of the trade war’s predictable effects on Tesla land.) [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-26/tesla-sales-plunge-as-anti-elon-musk-backlash-takes-hold https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-26/tesla-sal... [2] https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-m112 https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-m112
- acdha 2y ago
  “Completely whiffed” seems pretty strong for an unsubstantiated claim. All of the polls were off in 2016 but he was closer than most on predictions and in 2020 and 2024 he was pretty accurate. It would be interesting to know your criteria and who you think does meet that standard.
- pcwalton 2y ago
  He didn't completely whiff it? The probabilities that Nate and the current team at 538 have given over the years are empirically very accurate. 538 is quite transparent about this stuff [1]. Their Brier skill score for Presidential elections is 0.8243. [1]: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
verdverm 2y ago
[flagged]
- TomK32 2y ago
  You base your comment on what? One could say the same things about Musk but at least for Musk we have plenty of sources and his own actions/writings to justify Nate ending his article with "... being co-president requires a much more rounded sort of intelligence — not the type that Elon has."
  - verdverm 2y ago
    Look at the breadth of his work over the past years, not a single piece posted today
robinhouston 2y ago
Damn. I thought this was an interesting discussion of the multifactorial nature of intelligence, with reference to a topical example; but the comments so far make me think it's going to be challenging for us to have a normal conversation on a topic that involves such a divisive character.
- TomK32 2y ago
  Or at least a discussion about how so divisive, egomanic and sociopathic characters are given far too much airtime and credit. I do wonder whether those 15 minutes of fame should be the upper limit for anyone.

18 points by robinhouston 2y ago

Nate Silver’s only job is election prediction and he just completely whiffed it. Musk has been killing it in EVs and space and does everything else as a side hustle.

verdverm 2y ago
Musk seems to have a drug and social media addiction, I'm not sure he is actually well
sjsdaiuasgdia 2y ago
> killing it in EVs Have you seen the Cybertruck, the Tesla that Musk had the most direct input in designing? Have you read of its quality control issues? Have you seen the myriad pictures and videos of Cybertrucks stuck in the snow, in the mud, in the sand? Have you seen the struts that are woefully undersized for a vehicle of such weight, and the snapped off wheels that have resulted from this? The self-cracking windshields, and the windshield wiper's laughable design that breaks frequently? I could go on... Musk is not necessarily stupid but he does appear to think he's quite a lot smarter than he actually is, and in far more domains than he actually has expertise.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Musk has been killing it in EVs This is a good example of Silver’s argument. Tesla’s EV production is the best in the West. Yet sales and values are plunging across it because of his politics [1][2]. (Meanwhile, his distraction in the Cybertruck gave BYD and other Chinese brands the opening they needed outside it, and that’s before round two of the trade war’s predictable effects on Tesla land.) [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-26/tesla-sales-plunge-as-anti-elon-musk-backlash-takes-hold https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-26/tesla-sal... [2] https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-m112 https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-m112
acdha 2y ago
“Completely whiffed” seems pretty strong for an unsubstantiated claim. All of the polls were off in 2016 but he was closer than most on predictions and in 2020 and 2024 he was pretty accurate. It would be interesting to know your criteria and who you think does meet that standard.
pcwalton 2y ago
He didn't completely whiff it? The probabilities that Nate and the current team at 538 have given over the years are empirically very accurate. 538 is quite transparent about this stuff [1]. Their Brier skill score for Presidential elections is 0.8243. [1]: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

verdverm 2y ago

[flagged]

TomK32 2y ago
You base your comment on what? One could say the same things about Musk but at least for Musk we have plenty of sources and his own actions/writings to justify Nate ending his article with "... being co-president requires a much more rounded sort of intelligence — not the type that Elon has."
- verdverm 2y ago
  Look at the breadth of his work over the past years, not a single piece posted today

robinhouston 2y ago

Damn. I thought this was an interesting discussion of the multifactorial nature of intelligence, with reference to a topical example; but the comments so far make me think it's going to be challenging for us to have a normal conversation on a topic that involves such a divisive character.

TomK32 2y ago
Or at least a discussion about how so divisive, egomanic and sociopathic characters are given far too much airtime and credit. I do wonder whether those 15 minutes of fame should be the upper limit for anyone.