3 ms·

How’s that going to happen… he largely controls the board, owns over 10% of issued shared, people like Ellison own another huge chunk and there’s a bunch of Elo

How’s that going to happen… he largely controls the board, owns over 10% of issued shared, people like Ellison own another huge chunk and there’s a bunch of Elon fanbois who own much of the retail stock

AtlasBarfed 2y ago
It takes a supermajority to oust the board or the CEO. Must controls about 12% of the company, so the remaining 88% of the stock needs to produce the 2/3s majority. So you effectively need 75% of voters to vote against him. TSLA probably has a large retail segment, and they can't be organized to vote, and generally the TSLA retail crowd is full of Elon fanbois. That leaves institutional investors, and with Musk's alignment with the Trump administration, they are terrified of getting their institutions investigated or harassed. The only way Musk gets ousted is for the stock to drop so far that a margin call is issued on the loans he has taken on the stock. I don't know what that is, but I suspect it is under 100$/share. That might force a selloff by Musk, which combined with the price collapse chasing retail investors away, may provide enough voting power for institutions. Still a big IF. The only other thing would be if board members start resigning, but most of the board is sufficiently amoral and well compensated that it is unlikely. Regulatory intervention isn't happening for four years. Lawsuits? Probably would need executive branch enforcement, and there's always the Trump pardon to wipe anything away.
- hx8 2y ago
  The thing is, the actual value of ownership the TSLA represents in way over valued. At $100/share a market cap of ~$300B would be set, which is still over valued for a mid sized car manufacturer with a distressed brand. The $200B required to secure a 2/3 majority it would take at $100/share could be better invested else where in the automotive industry. The reason for the current high valuation is because people were betting Tesla would be first to another major tech innovation. Self driving taxis, or electric 18-wheel trucks, or some other new market. The more time Elon spends in Washington DC, the slower Tesla is going to be at realizing these advancements. For $200B you would have a decent shot of actually making a major tech leap in automative and partnering with an existing manufacturer.
- j_timberlake 2y ago
  All those events are strongly correlated with each other, so I don't think it's that unlikely. Especially since Tesla sales are plummeting in Europe right now.

AtlasBarfed 2y ago

It takes a supermajority to oust the board or the CEO. Must controls about 12% of the company, so the remaining 88% of the stock needs to produce the 2/3s majority. So you effectively need 75% of voters to vote against him. TSLA probably has a large retail segment, and they can't be organized to vote, and generally the TSLA retail crowd is full of Elon fanbois. That leaves institutional investors, and with Musk's alignment with the Trump administration, they are terrified of getting their institutions investigated or harassed. The only way Musk gets ousted is for the stock to drop so far that a margin call is issued on the loans he has taken on the stock. I don't know what that is, but I suspect it is under 100$/share. That might force a selloff by Musk, which combined with the price collapse chasing retail investors away, may provide enough voting power for institutions. Still a big IF. The only other thing would be if board members start resigning, but most of the board is sufficiently amoral and well compensated that it is unlikely. Regulatory intervention isn't happening for four years. Lawsuits? Probably would need executive branch enforcement, and there's always the Trump pardon to wipe anything away.

hx8 2y ago
The thing is, the actual value of ownership the TSLA represents in way over valued. At $100/share a market cap of ~$300B would be set, which is still over valued for a mid sized car manufacturer with a distressed brand. The $200B required to secure a 2/3 majority it would take at $100/share could be better invested else where in the automotive industry. The reason for the current high valuation is because people were betting Tesla would be first to another major tech innovation. Self driving taxis, or electric 18-wheel trucks, or some other new market. The more time Elon spends in Washington DC, the slower Tesla is going to be at realizing these advancements. For $200B you would have a decent shot of actually making a major tech leap in automative and partnering with an existing manufacturer.
j_timberlake 2y ago
All those events are strongly correlated with each other, so I don't think it's that unlikely. Especially since Tesla sales are plummeting in Europe right now.