3 ms·

Sometimes I have the dream where fixing a single perf bug makes everything 500% faster Or the economic version, what if we (companies and individuals) are just

Sometimes I have the dream where fixing a single perf bug makes everything 500% faster Or the economic version, what if we (companies and individuals) are just absurdly overpaying for everything? Could a jet cost 100k instead of 20million? Work from first principles and it can be..

comfysocks 2y ago
I see it like this: If you are designing a jetliner filled with human passengers (and the associated liability), first principles might lead you to a culture which puts a high priority on safety. The high cost of safety by design is deemed “worth it”. At least until equity markets and bean counters get their way. If you are building a military fighter jet, the lesson of war has taught us that skilled pilots are harder to replace than aircraft. Even if the pilots are “government property” from a liability point of view. So again, a costly and meticulous safety culture has evolved. If you are building an unmanned vehicle, and the development cost of the launch vehicle and payload is more than the incremental unit costs, and you never hand the vehicle over to the customer, then first principles might lead you to consider throwing out the safety culture that was created for the manned vehicle cases. See spacex. If you get confused between these different situations, then first principles might lead you to OceanGate.
- mlinhares 2y ago
  Damn, this is incredible and so true.
- robertlagrant 2y ago
  > first principles might lead you to consider throwing out the safety culture that was created for the manned vehicle cases. See spacex. Is this the case? I thought they'd done multiple crewed flights into space.
datadrivenangel 2y ago
You can get a jet engine for less than $2000 for small RC planes. The confidence that that jet engine will actually be robust enough to not loose your UAV or kill somebody will likely cost a lot more in time. If we insist on having engineers sign off on things, that signoff takes time, and it costs money to have smart people reviewing things.
antisthenes 2y ago
> Could a jet cost 100k instead of 20million? Work from first principles and it can be.. What's your risk tolerance?
daedrdev 2y ago
> Could a jet cost 100k instead of 20million? Work from first principles and it can be.. How many features do you want to give up?

comfysocks 2y ago

I see it like this: If you are designing a jetliner filled with human passengers (and the associated liability), first principles might lead you to a culture which puts a high priority on safety. The high cost of safety by design is deemed “worth it”. At least until equity markets and bean counters get their way. If you are building a military fighter jet, the lesson of war has taught us that skilled pilots are harder to replace than aircraft. Even if the pilots are “government property” from a liability point of view. So again, a costly and meticulous safety culture has evolved. If you are building an unmanned vehicle, and the development cost of the launch vehicle and payload is more than the incremental unit costs, and you never hand the vehicle over to the customer, then first principles might lead you to consider throwing out the safety culture that was created for the manned vehicle cases. See spacex. If you get confused between these different situations, then first principles might lead you to OceanGate.

mlinhares 2y ago
Damn, this is incredible and so true.
robertlagrant 2y ago
> first principles might lead you to consider throwing out the safety culture that was created for the manned vehicle cases. See spacex. Is this the case? I thought they'd done multiple crewed flights into space.

datadrivenangel 2y ago

You can get a jet engine for less than $2000 for small RC planes. The confidence that that jet engine will actually be robust enough to not loose your UAV or kill somebody will likely cost a lot more in time. If we insist on having engineers sign off on things, that signoff takes time, and it costs money to have smart people reviewing things.

antisthenes 2y ago

> Could a jet cost 100k instead of 20million? Work from first principles and it can be.. What's your risk tolerance?

daedrdev 2y ago

> Could a jet cost 100k instead of 20million? Work from first principles and it can be.. How many features do you want to give up?