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I don't think that solves it. The Fermi paradox is that based on the probabilities we estimate, we should see lots of aliens, and we don't. Thus something in ou
by wat10000 2y ago
I don't think that solves it. The Fermi paradox is that based on the probabilities we estimate, we should see lots of aliens, and we don't. Thus something in our estimates must be wrong, but we don't know what.
This fragility idea just shifts it from "we should see lots of aliens and we don't" to "the universe should have been destroyed by now and it hasn't been."
- DennisP 2y agoActually the Drake equation may not say that: > When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe) contains other civilizations, and thus no longer find our observations in conflict with our prior probabilities....When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’ https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404