4 ms·

LLMs are fundamentally a new paradigm, it just isn't distributed yet. It's not like the web suddenly was just there, it came slow at first, then everywhere at

LLMs are fundamentally a new paradigm, it just isn't distributed yet. It's not like the web suddenly was just there, it came slow at first, then everywhere at once, the money came even later.

weatherlite 2y ago
The LLMs are quite widely distributed already, they're just not that impactful. My wife is an accountant at a big 4 and they're all using them (everyone on Microsoft Office is probably using them, which is a lot of people). It's just not the earth shattering tech change CEOS make it to be , at least not yet. We need order of mangitude improvements in things like reliability, factuality and memory for the real economic efficiencies to come and its unclear to me when that's gonna happen.
- KoolKat23 2y ago
  Not necessarily, workflows just need to be adapted to work with it rather than it working in existing workflows. It's something that happens during each industrial revolution. Originally electric generators merely replaced steam generators but had no additional productivity gains, this only changed when they changed the rest of the processes around it.
  - weatherlite 2y ago
    I don't get this. What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? Even in things like customer support this is a no go imo. As long as these very major problems aren't improved (by a lot) the tools will remain very limited.
    - jacob019 2y ago
      We are at the precipice of a new era. LLMs are only part of the story. Neural net architecture and tooling has matured to the point where building things like LLMs is possible. LLMs are important and will forever change "the interface" for both developers and users, but it's only the beginning. The Internet changed everything slowly, then quickly, then slowly. I expect that to repeat
      - parodysbird 2y ago
        So you're just doing Delphic oracle prophecy. Mysticism is not actually that helpful or useful in most discussions, even if some mystical prediction accidently ends up correct.
        jacob019 2y ago
        Observations and expectations are not prophecy, but thanks for replying to dismiss my thoughts. I've been working on a ML project outside of the LLM domain, and I am blown away by the power of the tooling compared to a few years ago.
    - _w1tm 2y ago
      > What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? LLMs might enable some completely new things to be automated that made no sense to automate before, even if it’s necessary to error correct with humans / computers.
    - KoolKat23 2y ago
      There's a lot of productivity gains from things like customer support. It can draft a response and the human merely validates it. Hallucination rates are falling and even minor savings add up in these areas with large scale, productivity targets and strict SLA's such as call centres. It's not a reach to say it could already do a lot of Business process outsourcing type work.
      - abhpro 2y ago
        Source on hallucination rates falling? I use LLMs 20-30 times a day and while it feels invaluable for personal use where I can interpret the responses at my own discretion, they still hallucinate enough and have enough lapses in logic where I would never feel confident incorporating them into some critical system.
        KoolKat23 2y ago
        My own experience, but if you insist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-ai-models-with-the-lowest-hallucination-rates/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-ai-models-with-the-l... 99% of systems aren't critical and human validation is sufficient. My own use case, it is enough to replace plenty of hours of human labour.
genewitch 2y ago
Government and healthcare workers have been using AI for notes for over a year in Louisiana; an additional anecdote to sibling.

LLMs are fundamentally a new paradigm, it just isn't distributed yet. It's not like the web suddenly was just there, it came slow at first, then everywhere at once, the money came even later.

weatherlite 2y ago

The LLMs are quite widely distributed already, they're just not that impactful. My wife is an accountant at a big 4 and they're all using them (everyone on Microsoft Office is probably using them, which is a lot of people). It's just not the earth shattering tech change CEOS make it to be , at least not yet. We need order of mangitude improvements in things like reliability, factuality and memory for the real economic efficiencies to come and its unclear to me when that's gonna happen.

KoolKat23 2y ago
Not necessarily, workflows just need to be adapted to work with it rather than it working in existing workflows. It's something that happens during each industrial revolution. Originally electric generators merely replaced steam generators but had no additional productivity gains, this only changed when they changed the rest of the processes around it.
- weatherlite 2y ago
  I don't get this. What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? Even in things like customer support this is a no go imo. As long as these very major problems aren't improved (by a lot) the tools will remain very limited.
  - jacob019 2y ago
    We are at the precipice of a new era. LLMs are only part of the story. Neural net architecture and tooling has matured to the point where building things like LLMs is possible. LLMs are important and will forever change "the interface" for both developers and users, but it's only the beginning. The Internet changed everything slowly, then quickly, then slowly. I expect that to repeat
    - parodysbird 2y ago
      So you're just doing Delphic oracle prophecy. Mysticism is not actually that helpful or useful in most discussions, even if some mystical prediction accidently ends up correct.
      - jacob019 2y ago
        Observations and expectations are not prophecy, but thanks for replying to dismiss my thoughts. I've been working on a ML project outside of the LLM domain, and I am blown away by the power of the tooling compared to a few years ago.
  - _w1tm 2y ago
    > What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? LLMs might enable some completely new things to be automated that made no sense to automate before, even if it’s necessary to error correct with humans / computers.
  - KoolKat23 2y ago
    There's a lot of productivity gains from things like customer support. It can draft a response and the human merely validates it. Hallucination rates are falling and even minor savings add up in these areas with large scale, productivity targets and strict SLA's such as call centres. It's not a reach to say it could already do a lot of Business process outsourcing type work.
    - abhpro 2y ago
      Source on hallucination rates falling? I use LLMs 20-30 times a day and while it feels invaluable for personal use where I can interpret the responses at my own discretion, they still hallucinate enough and have enough lapses in logic where I would never feel confident incorporating them into some critical system.
      - KoolKat23 2y ago
        My own experience, but if you insist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-ai-models-with-the-lowest-hallucination-rates/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-ai-models-with-the-l... 99% of systems aren't critical and human validation is sufficient. My own use case, it is enough to replace plenty of hours of human labour.

genewitch 2y ago

Government and healthcare workers have been using AI for notes for over a year in Louisiana; an additional anecdote to sibling.