5 ms·

Like what economic changes? You can make a case people are 10% more productive in very specific fields (programming, perhaps consultancy etc). That's not really

Like what economic changes? You can make a case people are 10% more productive in very specific fields (programming, perhaps consultancy etc). That's not really an earthquake, the internet/web was probably way more significant.

arisAlexis 2y ago
Very limited thinking AI is a tool
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
Seanambers 2y ago
LLMs are fundamentally a new paradigm, it just isn't distributed yet. It's not like the web suddenly was just there, it came slow at first, then everywhere at once, the money came even later.
- weatherlite 2y ago
  The LLMs are quite widely distributed already, they're just not that impactful. My wife is an accountant at a big 4 and they're all using them (everyone on Microsoft Office is probably using them, which is a lot of people). It's just not the earth shattering tech change CEOS make it to be , at least not yet. We need order of mangitude improvements in things like reliability, factuality and memory for the real economic efficiencies to come and its unclear to me when that's gonna happen.
  - KoolKat23 2y ago
    Not necessarily, workflows just need to be adapted to work with it rather than it working in existing workflows. It's something that happens during each industrial revolution. Originally electric generators merely replaced steam generators but had no additional productivity gains, this only changed when they changed the rest of the processes around it.
    - weatherlite 2y ago
      I don't get this. What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? Even in things like customer support this is a no go imo. As long as these very major problems aren't improved (by a lot) the tools will remain very limited.
      - jacob019 2y ago
        We are at the precipice of a new era. LLMs are only part of the story. Neural net architecture and tooling has matured to the point where building things like LLMs is possible. LLMs are important and will forever change "the interface" for both developers and users, but it's only the beginning. The Internet changed everything slowly, then quickly, then slowly. I expect that to repeat
        parodysbird 2y ago
        So you're just doing Delphic oracle prophecy. Mysticism is not actually that helpful or useful in most discussions, even if some mystical prediction accidently ends up correct.
        jacob019 2y ago
        Observations and expectations are not prophecy, but thanks for replying to dismiss my thoughts. I've been working on a ML project outside of the LLM domain, and I am blown away by the power of the tooling compared to a few years ago.
      - _w1tm 2y ago
        > What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? LLMs might enable some completely new things to be automated that made no sense to automate before, even if it’s necessary to error correct with humans / computers.
      - KoolKat23 2y ago
- genewitch 2y ago
  Government and healthcare workers have been using AI for notes for over a year in Louisiana; an additional anecdote to sibling.
harshreality 2y ago
It's a force multiplier. Think of having a secretary, or ten. These secretaries are not as good as an average human at most tasks, but they're good enough for tasks that are easy to double check. You can give them an immense amount of drudgery that would burn out a human.
- habinero 2y ago
  What drudgery, though? Secretaries don't do a lot of drudgery. And a good one will see tasks that need doing that you didn't specify. If you're generating immense amounts of really basic make work, that seems like you're managing your time poorly.
  - harshreality 2y ago
    As one example, LLMs are great at summarizing, or writing or brainstorming outlines of things. They won't display world-class creativity, but as long as they're not hallucinating, their output is quite usable. Using them to replace core competencies will probably remain forbidden by professional ethics (writing court documents, diagnosing patients, building bridges). However, there are ways for LLMs to assist people without doing their jobs for them. Law firms are already using LLMs to deal with large amounts of discovery materials. Doctors and researchers probably use it to summarize papers they want to be familiar with but don't have the energy to read themselves. Engineers might eventually be able to use AI to do a rough design, then do all the regulatory and finite element analysis necessary to prove that it's up to code, just like they'd have to do anyway. I don't have a high-level LLM subscription, but I think with the right tooling, even existing LLMs might already be pretty good at managing schedules and providing reminders.

arisAlexis 2y ago

Very limited thinking AI is a tool

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

Seanambers 2y ago

LLMs are fundamentally a new paradigm, it just isn't distributed yet. It's not like the web suddenly was just there, it came slow at first, then everywhere at once, the money came even later.

weatherlite 2y ago
The LLMs are quite widely distributed already, they're just not that impactful. My wife is an accountant at a big 4 and they're all using them (everyone on Microsoft Office is probably using them, which is a lot of people). It's just not the earth shattering tech change CEOS make it to be , at least not yet. We need order of mangitude improvements in things like reliability, factuality and memory for the real economic efficiencies to come and its unclear to me when that's gonna happen.
- KoolKat23 2y ago
  Not necessarily, workflows just need to be adapted to work with it rather than it working in existing workflows. It's something that happens during each industrial revolution. Originally electric generators merely replaced steam generators but had no additional productivity gains, this only changed when they changed the rest of the processes around it.
  - weatherlite 2y ago
    I don't get this. What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? Even in things like customer support this is a no go imo. As long as these very major problems aren't improved (by a lot) the tools will remain very limited.
    - jacob019 2y ago
      We are at the precipice of a new era. LLMs are only part of the story. Neural net architecture and tooling has matured to the point where building things like LLMs is possible. LLMs are important and will forever change "the interface" for both developers and users, but it's only the beginning. The Internet changed everything slowly, then quickly, then slowly. I expect that to repeat
      - parodysbird 2y ago
        So you're just doing Delphic oracle prophecy. Mysticism is not actually that helpful or useful in most discussions, even if some mystical prediction accidently ends up correct.
        jacob019 2y ago
        Observations and expectations are not prophecy, but thanks for replying to dismiss my thoughts. I've been working on a ML project outside of the LLM domain, and I am blown away by the power of the tooling compared to a few years ago.
    - _w1tm 2y ago
      > What workflow can have occasional catastrophic lapses of reasoning, non factuality, no memory and hallucinations etc? LLMs might enable some completely new things to be automated that made no sense to automate before, even if it’s necessary to error correct with humans / computers.
    - KoolKat23 2y ago
genewitch 2y ago
Government and healthcare workers have been using AI for notes for over a year in Louisiana; an additional anecdote to sibling.

harshreality 2y ago

It's a force multiplier. Think of having a secretary, or ten. These secretaries are not as good as an average human at most tasks, but they're good enough for tasks that are easy to double check. You can give them an immense amount of drudgery that would burn out a human.

habinero 2y ago
What drudgery, though? Secretaries don't do a lot of drudgery. And a good one will see tasks that need doing that you didn't specify. If you're generating immense amounts of really basic make work, that seems like you're managing your time poorly.
- harshreality 2y ago
  As one example, LLMs are great at summarizing, or writing or brainstorming outlines of things. They won't display world-class creativity, but as long as they're not hallucinating, their output is quite usable. Using them to replace core competencies will probably remain forbidden by professional ethics (writing court documents, diagnosing patients, building bridges). However, there are ways for LLMs to assist people without doing their jobs for them. Law firms are already using LLMs to deal with large amounts of discovery materials. Doctors and researchers probably use it to summarize papers they want to be familiar with but don't have the energy to read themselves. Engineers might eventually be able to use AI to do a rough design, then do all the regulatory and finite element analysis necessary to prove that it's up to code, just like they'd have to do anyway. I don't have a high-level LLM subscription, but I think with the right tooling, even existing LLMs might already be pretty good at managing schedules and providing reminders.